如何看懂美国民意 人会再次喜欢希拉里

Now everyone will love her again.

现在所有人都会再次喜欢她。

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post, in his postmortem on the election, wrote that although as a candidate Hillary Clinton was never able to show that she was something more than the hyper-prepared, supersmart, best student in the class, she managed to show more of herself in her concession speech Wednesday morning, the latest example of politicians doing their best when they’ve lost something they wanted so badly.

《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)的克里斯.席利萨(Chris Cillizza)在美国大选后的剖析中写道，尽管作为候选人，希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)从未能够展示她不只是班级里做足功课的、超级聪明的最优秀学生，但她成功在周三早上的败选演讲中更多地吐露了心声，这是政客们在失去自己渴望的东西时华丽转身的最新例子。

Nonsense.

这完全是胡说。

Mrs Clinton made the same case for a united America, an inclusive, big-hearted America in her concession speech that she made in the last debate and in plenty of campaign speeches.

无论是在败选演讲中，还是在最后一场辩论以及许多竞选演讲中，希拉里都在主张建设一个团结的美国，一个包容的、心胸宽广的美国。

The change was in the listener, not the speaker.

改变的是听众，而非演讲者。

Once she was properly humbled, her grace, grit and authenticity could be recognised.

一旦她好好尝到了逆境的滋味，她的风度、坚韧和真诚就可以得到认可。

For millions of American women, and plenty of men, she was always striving for something beyond herself, a stronger, more united, equal and caring America.

对数以百万计的美国女性和众多男性而言，她始终在为事业而忘我地奋斗，为的是打造一个更强大、更为团结、平等和关怀的美国。

She made this point at the 2008 Democratic Convention, when she talked about the people who had motivated her to run.

她在2008年民主党全国代表大会上阐明了这一点，当时她谈到了激励自己竞选的人们。

She said to her supporters: I want you to ask yourselves: Were you in this campaign just for me? . . . Or were you in it for all the people in this country who feel invisible?

她向支持者表示：我希望你们扪心自问一下：你们投入这场竞选中只是为了我？……还是为了这个国家所有觉得自己毫无发言权的人们？

The context is all.

背景是一切。

As long as Mrs Clinton was seeking to be president, she was, to so many, a striving, ambitious, cold and calculating woman.

只要希拉里在寻求竞选总统，她在许多人眼里就是一个不择手段、野心勃勃、冷酷而且精于计算的女性。

That stereotype is all too familiar to women who want to hold the same positions that men do.

对那些希望占据由男性把持的职位的女性来说，这种成见过于熟悉。

But once she held a job, whether senator or secretary of state, she was widely admired by many of the same people who had disliked her as a candidate.

但是一旦她投入工作，无论是参议员还是国务卿，当初不喜欢她作为候选人的许多人都对她倍感钦佩。

Both Democrats and Republicans would tell me that they had opposed her in the 2008 campaign but were so impressed with the job she was doing.

无论是民主党人还是共和党人都会告诉我，他们在2008年大选中反对希拉里，但对她的工作表现留下极为深刻的印象。

Beyond sexism, however, Mrs Clinton lost this election above all because of a sweeping and intense desire for change — the same hunger that elected Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

然而，除了性别歧视以外，希拉里之所以败选，最大原因是人们普遍渴望改变——正是这种渴望让巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)在2008年和2012年赢得大选。

Nate Silver predicted before the election that if Donald Trump won, it would be because of white American men without a college degree who had voted for Mr Obama over John McCain or Mitt Romney but would now vote Trump.

纳特.西尔弗(Nate Silver)在大选前预计，如果唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)赢得大选，那将是因为那些没上过大学、曾经支持奥巴马而非约翰.麦凯恩(John McCain)或者米特.罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)的白人男性选民现在支持了特朗普。

And so it proved.

结果就是如此。

More than 80 per cent of voters, who prioritised can bring needed change, chose Mr Trump, even when they thought he did not have the temperament to be president.

看重候选人能够带来必要改变的选民中，80%以上选择了特朗普，即使他们认为特朗普的性情不适合当总统。

The question, for Republicans and Democrats alike, is how to accomplish that change.

无论是对共和党还是对民主党人士来说，问题在于如何实现那种改变。

How to rebuild a crumbling country and redress the decades-long slide in the standard of living and quality of life for middle-class Americans?

如何重建一个摇摇欲坠的国家，纠正美国中产阶级持续数十年的生活水平和生活质量滑坡？

How to create an economy that provides opportunity for white men in post-industrial America as well as for African Americans, Latinos and other minorities?

如何让后工业时代的美国经济为白人男子以及非裔、西语裔以及其他少数族裔美国人提供机会？

A few weeks ago, at the annual dinner for the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank, its president Arthur Brooks spoke of the need to return to core values as the starting point for finding opportunity in the crisis gripping America.

几个星期前，在保守派智库美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的年度晚宴上，所长阿瑟.布鲁克斯(Arthur Brooks)谈到有必要重拾核心价值观，作为在危机肆虐的美国寻觅机遇的出发点。

Core values include the equality of human dignity, and the right of each person to realise his or her potential.

核心价值观包括人的尊严平等，以及每个人都有实现自己潜能的权利。

He was repeating, perhaps unwittingly, one of Mrs Clinton’s mantras: the desire for a nation and a world where everyone can live up to his or her God-given potential.

他（或许是无意地）在重复希拉里的信条之一：渴望建立一个每个人都能实现自己天赋的国家乃至世界。

Mr Trump took up this refrain in his victory speech, adding one of his signature phrases: It’s going to be a beautiful thing.

特朗普在胜选演讲中借鉴了这一格言，加上他自己的口头禅之一：这将是非常美妙的事情。

Every single American will have the opportunity to realise his or her fullest potential.

每一个美国人都将有机会实现他或者她的全部潜能。

Equal opportunity is a staple of the American political diet.

机会平等是美国政治食谱的主菜。

But focusing on individual potential could point to a populism without demagoguery, a people-centred politics that measures success in terms of the numbers who have access to good jobs, schools and life opportunities rather than of the size of government, the level of taxes or the amount of regulation.

但是聚焦于个人潜能有望带来一种没有煽动的民粹主义，一种以人为本的政治，其衡量成功的标准是获得好工作、学校和人生机遇的数量，而非政府规模、税收水平或者法规数量。

The American political system is ¬broken.

美国政治制度目前运转不灵。

It does not deliver the results that a majority of Americans want, in poll after poll, on issues from gun safety to wages to fiscal responsibility.

从枪支安全、薪资，到财政责任，一次又一次投票的结果显示，它没有带来绝大多数美国人希望的结果。

The only way forward is to harness the desire for change to political reforms that will allow voters to vote for what they want and politicians to be able to deliver it.

唯一的前进之路是利用改变的愿望来推行政治改革，让选民能够投票选出他们想要的结果，也让政客们能够兑现改革承诺。

Mr Trump said he would take on that system;

特朗普表示，他将挑战这个制度。

the Republican establishment that hopes to tame him has a different idea.

希望驯服他的共和党建制派有不同的想法。

But if he fails, another candidate for change will run the table in 2020.

但是如果他失败了，另一个举着改变大旗的候选人将在2020年异军突起。