德国和英国或成为ISIS下一个目标
The brutal killings in Paris come on top of the downing of a Russian airliner in Sinai, the bombing of a Hizbollah stronghold in Beirut and an attack against Kurds in Ankara. Some 500 have been killed in the past few weeks, and many more injured. Isis has claimed the first three, and is suspected of the fourth.
就在巴黎发生残忍杀戮事件之前，一架俄罗斯客机坠毁在西奈半岛，贝鲁特的黎巴嫩真主党大本营发生了爆炸，安卡拉则发生了针对库尔德人的袭击。过去几周内，已有约500人在这些事件中丧生，更多人在事件中受伤。“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)声称对前三起事件负责，而对于第四起，它也负有嫌疑。
So how should we understand the strategy of the Islamist militants? Do they want to draw foreigners in further or frighten them away? I am not sure that is how they are thinking.
那么，对于这些伊斯兰激进分子的战略，我们应该如何理解？他们是希望进一步吸引外国人，还是令他们惧而远之？我无法确定这是否正是他们的想法。
What Isis wants is continuing turmoil in Syria, and in Iraq too, so that it can control territory and resources to build up its “caliphate”. It is not seeking to overthrow Bashar al-Assad — the Syrian president is useful as a target of Sunni anger, and there has been tacit co-operation between Isis and the regime. They avoid direct conflict, trade in oil and both target the more moderate militias.
ISIS想要的，是叙利亚和伊拉克的乱局持续下去，这样它就可以控制大片土地和资源以建设其“哈里发”。ISIS并未寻求推翻巴沙尔阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)，这位叙利亚总统是吸引逊尼派(Sunni)怒火的有用靶子，而ISIS和该政权之间也一直存在心照不宣的合作。两者之间会避免发生直接冲突，开展石油交易，并且都把更温和的武装人员当做目标。
Isis wants the horrors of war and terrorism as a recruiting sergeant. The best option for them is a conflict that can be presented as Muslims against infidels, whether American, Russian or European. A conflict pitching Sunni against Shia also helps: they want Sunnis in the Middle East and beyond to see them as their standard bearer. In their mindset, the Paris attacks are a show of power. They keep the pot boiling and will draw more Muslims in Europe to their cause.
ISIS希望用战争的可怕和恐怖主义充当遴选新人的军官。对他们来说，最好的选择是造成这样一场冲突：它能被描绘为穆斯林和不信教人士（不论是美国人、俄罗斯人还是欧洲人）之间的对战。而引起逊尼派与什叶派(Shia)争斗的冲突对他们也会很有帮助：他们希望中东及其他地区的逊尼派将他们视为标杆。在他们的头脑里，巴黎的袭击是一次力量的展示。他们要确保局面始终混乱，并将吸引欧洲更多穆斯林走上他们的轨道。
Two things Isis does not want. First is a full-blown ground intervention by Nato or Russia as this would quickly cost the militants their base in eastern Syria and western Iraq. The group will calculate, probably rightly, that — in the wake of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — there is no appetite for that in western capitals or Moscow. French President Hollande’s talk of war is unlikely to result in Nato’s article five commitment to collective defence being triggered in any meaningful way.
有两件事是ISIS不希望看到的。首先是北约(Nato)或俄罗斯的全面地面干预，因为这会很快导致这群激进分子丧失在叙利亚东部和伊拉克西部的基地。该组织会打如下算盘（很可能他们是对的）：西方各国政府或俄罗斯政府在伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争之后，没有进行全面地面干预的兴趣。法国总统弗朗索瓦攠朗德( Hollande)有关战争的讲话，不太可能以任何有实际意义的方式触发北约有关集体防御义务的第五条款。
Second is a peace deal bringing a new government to Syria. If there were a settlement accommodating Syrian Sunnis — a big if, given that it would require Mr Assad’s departure — Isis would lose its appeal. That should reinforce the resolve of foreign ministers from the US, Russia, Europe and the Middle East who met in Vienna on Saturday to seek a political solution to the Syrian war.
ISIS不希望看到的第二件事，则是达成能让叙利亚建立新政府的和平协议。如果存在包容叙利亚逊尼派的和平协议（考虑到这以阿萨德下台为必要条件，这是个十分大胆的假定），ISIS就会失去吸引力。这一点应该会加大美国、俄罗斯、欧洲及中东各国外长的决心，他们于上周六在维也纳会晤，以寻求叙利亚战争的政治解决方案。
Diplomacy will always reflect what is happening on the ground. Russia’s military intervention in Syria, targeting anti-regime forces, has strengthened the negotiating hand of the Kremlin and its ally, the Assad regime. If the west wants to shape the outcome, its military role will have to be less tentative than the current limited strikes against Isis and arms supplies to the less extreme anti-Assad militias.
外交始终是地面军事态势的反映。俄罗斯对叙利亚以反政府武装为目标的军事干预，为克里姆林宫及其盟友阿萨德政权增加了谈判的筹码。如果西方希望改变这一结果，它们就必须提升在军事上发挥的作用，不要像现在那么试探性。目前，它们的行动还只限于对ISIS十分有限的打击，以及向不那么极端的反阿萨德武装人员提供武器。
Why did Isis attack France? Well, Paris has been at the forefront of opposition to Islamist extremists in the Sahel and in Syria. The French Muslim community is not well integrated — and, being mainly of north African origin, feels more involved in the conflicts in the Arab world than the south Asians in Britain or Turks in Germany, which has made them more susceptible to Isis rhetoric.
ISIS为何要袭击法国？在萨赫勒地区（Sahel，非洲撒哈拉沙漠和苏丹草原地区之间一条横跨多个国家的地带——译者注）和叙利亚，法国一直站在对抗伊斯兰极端分子的最前沿。法国的穆斯林群体没有很好地融入社会——由于法国的穆斯林主要是北非裔，比起英国的南亚裔穆斯林或者德国的土耳其裔穆斯林，这些人在情感上更关注阿拉伯世界的争端，这使他们更容易受到ISIS的宣传的影响。
Some ask if there was a failure of intelligence that could have prevented the atrocity. We do not yet know. It was a complex, well planned attack by skilled operatives. Of course, some were known to the French security services — it would be much more alarming if they were all “clean skins”. We need to know how they planned, how they communicated, where they trained and what traces they left ahead of Friday.
一些人问，情报工作是否失败，否则我们本可能阻止这场暴行。这一点我们还不知道。这是一次复杂、精心策划、由训练有素的行动人员进行的袭击。当然，法国的安保部门知道其中一些人的存在——如果他们全都“背景干净”，此事就骇人得多了。我们需要了解，他们是如何策划、沟通的，他们在哪里接受训练，在周五事件发生前又留下了什么痕迹。
French security services will have been working on these questions all weekend, supported by counterparts across Europe. They are battling to get on top of the escalating threat at home. DGSI, the internal service, is having to shift from its police methods to an intelligence-led approach to get on top of the modern threat. DGSE, the external service, is geared more to pursuing French interests abroad than supporting security at home. French intercept capabilities come under the external service and are not as easily directed against terrorists in France. Countering terrorism tight co-ordination of agent penetration, intercepts and bulk data analysis. Teamwork is vital. In the UK we developed it only after the 2005 London bombings. Reform of the French services, already being driven by Manuel Valls, the impressively tough prime minister, is certain to be accelerated.
法国的安保部门在欧洲各国安保部门的协助下，整个周末都在研究这些问题。他们正在奋力控制国内不断升级的威胁。负责国内安全事务的法国国内安全总局(DGSI)，现在必须将警察式的手段转换成以情报为主导的策略，以控制现代威胁。负责外部安全事务的法国对外安全总局(DGSE)比起支持国内的安全工作，更多追求法国在国外的利益。法国的情报截查能力设在外部安全部门下，因此没那么容易以法国国内的恐怖分子为目标。反恐需要特工渗透、信息截查和批量数据分析的紧密协作。团队合作十分关键。在英国，我们在2005年的伦敦爆炸案之后才发展出这样的机制。风格极其强硬的法国总理曼纽尔瓦尔斯(Manuel Valls)已经开始推动法国安保部门的改革，现在这项改革势必提速。
The next attack probably will not be in France. Isis wants to provoke division across Europe — in particular, hostility to the refugees flooding in. It wants the far right to grow in strength, further alienating European Muslims. Germany might be vulnerable as Isis would see an attack as weakening Chancellor Angela Merkel and dividing opinion. It could just as easily be in London: according to Andrew Parker, head of MI5, the UK domestic security agency, six terror attacks have been foiled in the UK this year already — though none, I suspect, as extensive as what we saw in Paris.
下一次袭击很可能不会在法国发生。ISIS希望在全欧洲制造分歧——尤其是，对涌入欧洲的难民的敌意。ISIS希望极右翼势力提升实力，使欧洲的穆斯林进一步遭到疏远。德国可能是一个容易受到攻击的目标，因为ISIS会将袭击德国视为削弱德国总理安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)和制造观点分歧的手段。袭击同样很有可能发生在伦敦，根据英国国内安全机构军情五处(MI5)处长安德鲁帕克(Andrew Parker)的说法，今年英国已经阻止了6次恐怖袭击，尽管我怀疑其中没有哪一起能比得上巴黎暴恐案的规模。
Political calculation and available operatives will determine where Isis tries to strike next. There is little doubt that there will be further attacks. This will challenge not just our intelligence agencies. The wars in Europe’s neighbourhood are now washing on to our shores and governments in Europe — especially France, Germany and Britain — will have to lead the response. We cannot expect the US to ride to our rescue.
政治盘算和可用的行动人员将决定ISIS下一次会在哪里试图发动袭击。无疑，我们会看到更多的袭击。这挑战的不仅仅是我们的情报机构。在欧洲邻近地区发生的战争已经蔓延到了我们的边缘，欧洲各国——尤其是法国、德国和英国——政府必须领导起应对行动。我们不能指望美国前来救援。
