中国内地股市动荡短期利好香港

With Hong Kong riven by politicAl deadlock, politicians and investors have repeatedly warned in recent years that the financial centre risks sliding into irrelevance as its Chinese rivals Shanghai and Shenzhen go from strength to strength.

随着香港社会因政治僵局而陷于分裂，政治人士和投资者近些年来已多次警告称，这个金融中心有可能慢慢被边缘化，因为其中国内地竞争对手上海和深圳正变得越来越强大。

But some argue that China’s latest bout of stock market turmoil — and Beijing’s panicked response — has provided an unexpected boon to Hong Kong, highlighting the open nature of its financial markets and its more robust regulatory system.

但有些人辩称，中国最新一轮股市动荡——以及北京方面惊慌失措的应对——对香港构成了一项意想不到的利好，让人们注意到了香港金融市场的开放性和它更强健的监管体系。

“China is involuntarily sending a signal that it’s not yet ready to open its financial markets and that’s good for Hong Kong,” said the chief financial officer of one leading Hong Kong-listed company.

“中国在无意识中向外界发出了一个信号，告诉大家它还没准备好开放其金融市场。这对香港是个利好，”一家知名香港上市公司的首席财务官说。

This attitude underlines the strange duality of Hong Kong’s economic position. On the one hand, the semi-autonomous Chinese territory’s prospects are deeply intertwined with the mainland — and it sells itself as a gateway to China. On the other, government officials and investors promote Hong Kong’s stark contrasts with China, with an independent legal system, free speech and currency pegged to the US dollar, not the renminbi.

这一态度突显出了香港经济地位的奇特二重性。一方面，这块半自治中国领土的前景已与中国内地深深交织在一起，而且香港也在宣扬自己是通向中国内地的门户。另一方面，政府官员和投资者又在兜售香港明显不同于中国内地的地方：相对独立的法律体系，言论自由，以及与美元而非人民币挂钩的港元。

Last week Beijing rushed to implement a package of measures designed to arrest the slump in Chinese stock markets, halting new share issues, banning large investors from selling stakes and pushing state-owned stock brokers and companies to buy equities.

上周，北京方面仓促实施了一系列旨在止住中国股市跌势的措施，比如暂停新股发行，禁止大股东减持，以及推动国有券商和企业买入股票。

The Hong Kong government, by contrast, sat on the sidelines, even as the sell-off on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges prompted large falls in Hong Kong-listed shares.

与此形成对照的是，就在沪深股市的抛售行为导致香港上市公司股价大跌之际，香港政府却并未插手干预。

Although Hong Kong pulled off the textbook government rescue of a collapsing stock market in 1997, the government’s top financial official said on Friday he had no intention of intervening this time.

尽管1997年香港政府成功实施了教科书般的救市、止住了股市的狂泻，但香港政府最高财政长官上周五却表示，这一次他不打算出手干预。

“Whatever happens in other markets will have an impact on Hong Kong, which is a very externally oriented market,” said John Tsang, financial secretary. “But we conduct our regulatory practices in a mature and sophisticated way.”

“香港是一个非常外向型的市场，所以无论其他市场发生什么，都会对香港造成影响，”香港财政司司长曾俊华(John Tsang)说，“但我们开展监管实践的方式成熟而老练。”

Francis Cheung, head of China and Hong Kong strategy at CLSA, a stock broker, said Hong Kong enjoyed a short-term benefit “any time China screws up” because investors were reminded of the former British colony’s far stronger regulatory framework.

里昂证券(CLSA)中国与香港策略主管郑名凯(Francis Cheung)表示，“每当中国玩砸了的时候”，都会在短期内利好香港，因为那会让投资者重新意识到这块前英国殖民地有着强健得多的监管框架。

However, he added that in the long term Hong Kong’s fortunes as a financial centre would inevitably be tied up with mainland China, not least because the city is in the process of integrating its stock exchange with the Chinese bourses in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

但他补充道，长远来看，香港作为金融中心的命运将不可避免地与中国内地捆绑在一起，一个重要原因在于，香港的证券交易所正在与上海和深圳的证券交易所进行融合。

Vincent Chan, head of China research for Credit Suisse in Hong Kong, also argued that any benefits for Hong Kong from China’s woes would be short-lived.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)驻香港的中国研究主管陈昌华(Vincent Chan)也辩称，香港从中国内地困境中获得的任何好处都将是暂时的。

He said the wide-ranging Chinese intervention in the stock market made investors nervous about the direction of Beijing’s policy, coming in spite of repeated statements from Chinese officials that they wanted to accelerate the opening-up of the economy and financial services.

他表示，尽管中国官员反复宣称希望加快经济和金融服务业的开放，但他们还是对股市展开了广泛干预，这令投资者对北京方面的政策方向感到担心。

Such concerns were likely to be negative for Hong Kong, he said, given that most foreign investors buy Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, known as H shares, rather than those listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, known as A shares.

他说，考虑到投资在港上市的中国股票（即H股）的外国投资者为数众多，上面这种担心很可能会给香港带来负面影响。

But although the Chinese and Hong Kong governments are pursuing a long-term goal of economic and financial integration, investors will continue to assess the risks of doing business in the mainland and in Hong Kong differently.

不过，尽管中国政府与香港政府正在追求经济与金融一体化的长期目标，投资者仍将对中国内地和香港的营商风险给出不同的评价。

“There’s still a difference in governance and the mechanisms in Shenzhen and Shanghai compared with Hong Kong, and investors understand the risks,” said Edward Au, an auditor at Deloitte who advises Chinese companies on overseas listings.

“在治理和机制上，沪深与香港仍然存在差别，投资者明白这种风险，”德勤(Deloitte)负责为中国企业海外上市提供咨询的审计师Edward Au表示。