中国欲将军事竞赛引向太空

The debate over U.S. military presence in Asia usually centers on traditional areas like water or air. Yet Chinese President Xi Jinping has provided evidence that military competition may be shifting from ships and planes to space. He showcased China's military priorities when last week he encouraged his country's air force to better integrate its air and space capabilities. Although not as dramatic as President John F. Kennedy's 1961 call for a U.S. mission to the Moon, the Chinese leader's desire to expand the realm of military competition are clear. Washington should prepare for crippling attacks on satellites and other communications systems before it is too late.

围绕美国在亚洲的军事存在的争论总是集中在海、空等传统领域。但中国国家主席习近平最近的讲话表明，军事竞赛可能会从舰船、飞机转移到太空。上周，他鼓励中国空军更好地将航空和航天能力整合起来，从而点明了中国军事的优先任务。虽然习近平的这番讲话并不像美国前总统肯尼迪(John F. Kennedy)在1961年提出登月计划那样引人瞩目，但这位中国领导人扩大军事竞赛领域的愿望已表露无遗。华盛顿方面应该准备防范卫星及其他通讯系统受到的攻击，否则将为时已晚。

China's plan to militarize its space activities has been in development for years. Its space program is controlled by its military, unlike in the U.S., where military services and NASA have separate agencies and leadership. Repeated Pentagon reports in recent years on China's military activities have noted the country has built up the means of disabling foreign satellites. And technological advantages have been growing steadily.

ASSOCIATED PRESS多年来，中国一直在发展将太空行动军事化的计划。中国的太空项目由军方控制，这与美国不同，美国的军事部门和美国国家航空航天局(NASA)有各自的机构和决策层。近些年来，美国国防部多次在有关中国军事活动的报告中称，中国已经建立起能使外国卫星瘫痪的手段。此外，中国的技术优势一直在稳步扩大。

China shocked the world in 2007 by successfully destroying one of its aging weather satellites, demonstrating an anti-satellite capability that few nations can match. That test created a cloud of debris that continues to bedevil satellites and the International Space Station. Beijing also tested what is widely believed to have been a new, mobile-launched anti-satellite missile last May.

中国在2007年成功摧毁了本国一个老化的气象卫星，展示出没有多少国家可以企及的反卫星能力。此举震惊了世界。目前，这项实验所产生的一个卫星残骸云团仍在困扰其他卫星以及国际空间站。另外，中国还在去年5月份进行了一次测试，外界普遍认为所测试的是一款新型、机动发射反卫星导弹。

By comparison, the Pentagon has no formal anti-satellite system under development. And at a time when America's exploration program of the Moon has ended, China's has just begun. Its 'Jade Rabbit' moon rover, the first Earth vehicle to visit the lunar surface in almost 40 years, successfully landed last December. Although Jade Rabbit broke down halfway through its planned three-month mission-highlighting the complexities of sustained space programs-China's goal remains to execute a manned mission to the Moon and possibly even establish a lunar base.

相比之下，美国国防部还未开发正式的反卫星系统。在美国结束探月计划之际，中国刚刚踏上探月之旅。中国的“玉兔号”月球车在去年12月份成功登陆月球，这是近40年来地球设备首次登月。虽然“玉兔号”在完成预定三个月的任务过程中出现了故障（凸显出持续推进太空计划的复杂性），但中国的目标仍是执行一次载人登月任务，甚至可能建立月球基地。

Which gets to Mr. Xi's high-profile exhortation last week that he will guide his country's growing technological expertise toward making space another dimension of the battlefield. How might Beijing integrate its air and space capabilities, and to what end? This is where both American homeland security and military planners need to be concerned.

习近平上周高调宣布，将引导中国日益增强的技术实力朝着把太空当作另一战场维度的方向努力。中国可能会对航空与航天能力进行怎样的整合？又要达到怎样的目的？这是美国的安全与军事规划部门都需要关心的问题。

There are currently only 30 operational GPS satellites operated by the U.S. Any Chinese ability to target those satellites could potentially disrupt, if not cripple, GPS operations on which everything from weather reporting to civil aviation to smartphone apps rely. That would impose huge costs on the American economy and potentially shut down entire industries. It is the 21st century version of saturation bombing, designed to target civilians and break their will to resist.

目前美国只运营着30颗全球定位系统(GPS)卫星。如果中国能够锁定这些卫星，就可能干扰、甚至破坏从天气预报、民航到智能手机应用所依赖的GPS服务。这将给美国经济带来巨额成本，并且有可能让整个行业陷入停滞。这是21世纪的新型地毯式轰炸，针对平民，旨在粉碎他们抵抗下去的意志。

Similarly, Mr. Xi is moving China into a position where it could deny U.S. military forces their one unquestioned global advantage: a networked battle system. The U.S. Air Force operates around 20 advanced satellite communications systems.

同样，习近平正在推动中国到达这样一个地位：动摇美国军队一个本无争议的全球性优势——网络化作战体系。美国空军运营着大约20个高级卫星通信系统。

Targeting those and some GPS satellites could make U.S. military operations difficult, if not impossible, to undertake. It could eliminate the effectiveness of precision-guided munitions. The U.S. Congress has become so concerned about this vulnerability that it requested that the Pentagon run studies on the ability of the U.S. military to operate in communications-denied environments.

瞄准上述系统和一些GPS卫星可能让美国军方的运营难以进行、甚至无法进行。可能会使精确制导武器失去效力。美国国会对这一薄弱环节一直十分担心，以至于要求国防部研究美国军队在无通信信号环境下运作的能力。

Offensive space weapons would undoubtedly be employed in conjunction with China's advanced cyber warfare capabilities. By blinding satellites while knocking down computer networks through distributed denials of service, Beijing could effectively prevent U.S. forces from operating in Asia and beyond. This is what the Chinese call 'war under informationized conditions,' a twist on the 'joint operations' that the U.S. military touts. The potential of such an attack is not based on military branches, but on capabilities.

攻击性的航空武器无疑将得到应用，以配合中国先进的网络战能力。通过分散式阻断服务攻击来破坏卫星观测能力并打击计算机网络，中国政府可以有效阻止美军在亚洲及其他地区运营。这就是中国所称的“信息化条件下的战争”，将破解美国军队宣称的“联合作战”。这种攻击潜力的基础不是军事分支，而是军事能力。

Consider the threat of increased space presence to some of Asia's flashpoints. Blinding some of America's spy satellites could deprive policy makers of timely intelligence on Chinese naval and air moves to threaten foreign-held territory, such as the disputed Senkaku Islands. Introducing just enough uncertainty to delay American or joint allied decision-making could give Chinese forces the margin of success necessary to present Washington with a fait accompli. It would undoubtedly be even easier to isolate and interrupt the military activities of America's smaller allies, leaving Washington with a heavier burden.

破坏美国的监控卫星可能使决策者不能及时获得中国海军和空军威胁外国领地相关行动的情报，如存在争议的尖阁诸岛(Senkaku Islands, 中国称钓鱼岛)。通过加大不确定性来推迟美国或盟国的决策可以提高中国军队成功制造既成事实的可能性。无疑也会使得孤立或阻碍美国较小盟国军事行动更加容易，从而加大美国的负担。

The trend is clear: President Obama may want to shrink the military and surrender America's lead in space, but China is moving in the opposite direction. Eventually, Beijing will have a lead. At that point, American policy makers will be forced on the defensive while grasping to connect the dots of seemingly disparate events in space and cyberspace. America prides itself on being the world's technological powerhouse, but that is a diminishing advantage when others have a clearer view of why they are aiming at the stars.

趋势很清楚，美国总统奥巴马可能想要收缩军事力量、放弃美国在航空领域的领导地位，但中国却朝着相反方向发展。最终中国将处于领先地位。到时候，美国决策者将被迫进行防御，同时努力将航空和网络空间中看似不相干的事件联系起来。美国以作为全球科技强国而自豪，但随着其他国家对发展航空业有了更清晰的认识，美国的这种优势正在减弱。

Mr. Auslin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist for . He is on Twitter @michaelauslin.

Auslin是美国企业学会的常驻学者，也是《华尔街日报》网的专栏作家。