美元是美债闹剧的最大受害者

Dollar bulls are in retreat. For much of the past year, investors have been adamant that the next big trend in currency markets would be the dollar’s resurgence. But the US currency has emerged as the biggest victim of the drama in Washington over the debt ceiling.

美元多头目前偃旗息鼓。在去年的大多数时间里，投资者一直坚持相信，外汇市场的下一个主要趋势将是美元的再度崛起。但美元现已成为了华盛顿债务上限闹剧的最大受害者。

Since last week’s eleventh hour deal to extend the debt ceiling – and avert a possible sovereign default – the dollar has fallen against almost all leading currencies and remains near an eight-month low against a basket of six main rivals.

自从美国两党上周在最后一刻达成延长债务上限的协议以来——此举避免了发生债务违约的危险——美元相对于其他主要货币全面走软，美元对六种主要货币组成的一篮子货币的汇率也在近8个月以来的低点附近徘徊。

Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect the dollar to strengthen in the long run, but the median forecast for 2015 has fallen 4 per cent since early June.

接受彭博(Bloomberg)调查的分析师预计，美元长期内将走强，但对2015年美元汇率的预测中位数相对于6月初的水平已经降低了4%。

The question is whether this recent weakness represents a tactical retreat by investors calculating how long the past month’s disruption will delay the Federal Reserve’s withdrawal of emergency monetary stimulus or, more worryingly, whether the dollar has suffered long-term damage to its status as a reserve currency.

问题的关键在于：美元近期的疲软走势是否代表了投资者的一种战略撤退——因其正在估算上月的市场扰动将使美联储(Federal Reserve)推迟多久退出应急性货币刺激政策；还是出现了更令人担忧的情况，即美元作为一种储备货币的地位从长期来看已经受到了损害。

The spectacle of dysfunctional government has clearly strengthened the desire of countries with big foreign exchange reserves to become less reliant on the dollar. As talks went to the wire, China and Japan, by far the biggest holders of US Treasuries, conveyed to Washington their concerns over the value of their investments.

美国政府停摆的局面无疑强化了持有巨额外汇储备的国家降低美元依赖的愿望。在美国两党谈判僵持不下之际，中国和日本已经向华盛顿方面表示了对于自身投资价值的担忧。中日是当前持有美国国债规模最大的两个国家。

Ksenia Yudaeva, deputy governor of Russia’s central bank, was more explicit, telling reporters last week: “We may consider some other currencies. We can’t reduce [the share of US Treasuries] rapidly but, in some time, we will be considering other instruments.”

俄罗斯央行副行长柯西尼娅•尤达耶娃(Ksenia Yudaeva)更加直言不讳。上周她对记者表示：“我们可能考虑其他货币。我们不能迅速降低美国国债在储备资产中所占比重，但随着时间的推移，我们会考虑其他的投资工具。”

Many analysts dismiss such comments, saying they are rarely backed by action.

很多分析师对于这种表态不屑一顾，称其很少能够落实到实际行动上。

“The key agents here, central banks, move at glacial speeds and have few compelling alternatives,” write strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman, while JPMorgan notes that previous US fiscal fights “have always failed to generate a durable change in central bank purchases of US Treasuries”.

布朗兄弟哈里曼银行(Brown Brothers Harriman)的策略师写道：“作为这一问题中的关键角色，中央银行的行动速度如同冰川般缓慢，并且缺乏具有说服力的其他选择。”而摩根大通(JPMorgan)则指出，历史上美国两党围绕财政问题展开的斗争“从未对各国央行购买美国国债的行为带来持久的改变”。

Even if changes are incremental, the dollar’s share of international reserves has undergone significant swings in the past. After 1999, with the euro’s introduction, its share in emerging markets’ FX reserves fell from about 75 per cent to 57 per cent, then rose slightly as the eurozone crisis dented confidence in the single currency.

即使这种变化是渐进的，美元在国际外汇储备中所占比重也曾经历过显著波动。1999年以后，随着欧元的引入，美元在新兴市场国家外汇储备中的份额从约75%下降至57%；此后因欧元区经济危机削弱了市场对于欧元的信心，美元占比又略有回升。

During the last US budget stand-off in 2011, doubts over the euro’s future would have prevented any significant move out of dollars. This year, the stand-off coincided with a return of investor confidence in Europe’s periphery. It also follows a summer of intervention by central banks in emerging markets, which might have scope to decide whether to replenish their reserves with dollars or to seek alternatives.

在2011年的美国预算僵局期间，市场对欧元前景的顾虑阻碍了任何大规模抛售美元的行动。今年美国两党对峙恰逢投资者对欧洲外围国家重拾信心之际。此外，今年夏季新兴市场国家央行还曾入市干预，它们或许拥有决定是重新补充美元储备还是寻找其他选择的行动空间。

Moreover, China’s vast foreign exchange reserves hit a fresh high of $3.66tn in the third quarter. Valentin Marinov, strategist at Citi, notes that “in the past, whenever those reserves picked up, it added to the incentive to diversify”.

而且，中国的外汇储备规模今年第三季度创下了历史新高，达到了3.66万亿美元。花旗(Citi)策略师瓦伦丁•马利诺夫(Valentin Marinov)指出，“过去每当一国的外汇储备规模上升时，就会增强该国多元化投资的动力。”

International Monetary Fund data on the composition of central bank reserves show reserve managers were increasing their holdings of euros as confidence returned in the second quarter of 2012. Some analysts say that diversification by central bank reserve managers may partly explain the recent strength of sterling and the single currency.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)有关各国央行储备资产构成的数据显示，在 2012年第二季度市场对欧元区经济重拾信心时，储备主管们就在提高欧元的持有量。部分分析师指出，各国央行外汇储备主管的多元化投资行为或能部分解释近期英镑以及欧元的强劲走势。

Another clear trend in the IMF data is the recent popularity of the Australian and Canadian dollars as alternative reserve currencies, and some analysts speculate that unexpected resilience in the Aussie might reflect continued purchases.

IMF数据展现出的另一大显著趋势是，近期澳元以及加拿大元作为储备货币的新选择大受追捧；一些分析师猜测，澳元出人意料的弹性或许正反映了持续买盘的影响。

Mr Marinov argues that a Fitch downgrade of the US sovereign rating might be a “tipping point” for further diversification, noting the Swiss National Bank had sold French bonds – cutting its euro holdings – after the country lost its triple A rating.

马利诺夫认为，若惠誉(Fitch)下调美国主权信用评级，则可能成为外汇储备进一步多元化的“引爆点”。他指出，瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)就曾在法国失去AAA信用评级之后出售法国债券，进而减少所持欧元比重。

Such adjustments by central bankers could have a big effect on the value of some of the less liquid alternative reserve currencies – but they suggest a gradual erosion of the dollar’s role in capital markets, rather than any immediate threat to its dominance.

央行官员的这种调整或对某些流动性较弱的非美元储备货币造成较大影响——但这种调整表明，美元在资本市场中的地位正在逐渐受到侵蚀，其市场主导地位不会立刻受到威胁。

More important to the dollar’s performance in the short term will be the flow of economic data that will determine the Federal Reserve’s decision on the timing of “tapering”. Analysts at Citi suggest that jobs data to be published today could be better than expected, making it already risky to short the dollar.

经济数据对于美元短期内走势具有更加重要的影响，因其决定着美联储将于何时“缩减”货币刺激政策。花旗分析师指出，本周公布的就业数据可能好于市场预期，这已经使得做空美元变得有风险。

But currency investors, many of them out of pocket after the recent twists and turns in US monetary policy, are ready to seize on dollar weakness.

但外汇市场投资者已经做好了利用美元疲软走势的准备，他们中的很多人因近期美国货币政策曲折反复而蒙受了损失。

“The emergence of a trend, any trend, is big news,” writes Chris Turner, strategist at ING, predicting that a dollar-funded carry trade would continue to the end of the year – whatever the dollar’s longer term prospects.

荷兰国际集团(ING)策略师克里斯•特纳(Chris Turner)指出：“外汇市场只要出现趋势，不论是哪种趋势，都是重大新闻。”他预计，不论美元的长期前景如何，融入美元的套利交易都将持续到今年年底。