特朗普税改有利于富人
Just as Ronald Reagan’s landmark 1986 bipartisan tax reform increased simplicity, fairness and economic efficiency by broadening the tax base and reducing rates, today reform of the system has the potential to help American families and the economy.
罗纳德.里根(Ronald Reagan)在1986年推出的得到两党支持的税制改革，通过扩大税基和降低税率提高了简单性、公平度和经济效率，与之一样，今天税制改革也存在帮助美国家庭和经济的可能性。
Properly designed, revenue-neutral reforms could help to offset the dramatic increases in inequality that have taken place over a generation, repair a business tax system that globalisation has rendered dysfunctional, reduce uncertainty and promote growth.
正确设计的收入中性的改革，可能有助于缓解二三十年来不公平程度的大幅提高，修复因全球化而功能失调的企业税制度，降低不确定性，并促进增长。
Unfortunately, what we know of the intentions of the president-elect and congressional leadership suggest that they risk pushing through the most misguided set of tax changes in US history.
遗憾的是，根据我们对当选总统和国会领导人的意图的了解，他们有可能推行美国历史上方向错得最严重的税制改革。
The proposals from the presidential campaign, reiterated last week by President-elect Donald Trump’s choice for Treasury secretary, will massively favour the top 1 per cent of income earners, threaten an explosive rise in federal debt, complicate the tax code and do little if anything to spur growth.
总统竞选中的提议——上周当选总统唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)对财长的选择实际上重申了这些提议——将极大地有利于收入最高的1%人群，可能导致联邦债务爆炸性升高，把税法变得更复杂，而对刺激增长却几乎毫无作用。
A core principle agreed to by all in 1986 was that reform would not reduce the tax burden on high-income taxpayers.
1986年，各方都认同的一条核心原则是，改革不得降低高收入纳税人的税务负担。
Reagan achieved this objective while reducing top marginal rates because he raised capital gains rates, scaled back investment incentives, increased corporate tax collection, curtailed shelters and left estate and gift taxes alone.
里根在降低最高边际税率的同时实现了这一目标，因为他提高了资本利得税，降低了投资激励，加强了企业税征缴，限制了避税，并且没有触碰遗产及赠与税。
Unfortunately, neither the Trump plan, nor the one put forward by Paul Ryan, speaker of the House of Representatives, provides for nearly enough base-broadening to finance all the high-end tax cutting they include.
遗憾的是，无论是特朗普计划、还是众议院议长保罗.瑞安(Paul Ryan)提出的计划，都远远不能足量扩大税基、以弥补对顶端人群的减税。
Steven Mnuchin, Treasury secretary-designate, asserts there will be no absolute tax cut for the upper class because deductions would be scaled back.
候任财长史蒂芬.姆钦(Steven Mnuchin)声称，将不会对上层阶层实施绝对减税，因为纳税扣除将会减少。
The rub is that totally eliminating all deductions for those with incomes over $1m would not even raise enough revenue to cover reducing their marginal tax rates from 39 to 33 per cent, let alone offset their benefit from huge rate reductions on business and corporate income, and the elimination of estate and gift taxes.
问题在于，即使完全取消针对100万美元以上收入人群的纳税扣除，也无法增加足够税收、弥补他们的边际税率从39%降至33%造成的税收减少，更不要说抵消他们从企业所得税税率大幅降低、以及遗产及赠与税取消中的受益。
Estimates of the Trump plan suggest that it will raise the average after-tax income of the 0.9 per cent of the population with incomes over $1m by 14 per cent, or more than $215,000.
对特朗普计划的估算显示，收入在100万美元以上的0.9%人口的平均税后收入将增加14%（逾21.5万美元）。
This contrasts with proposed tax cuts for those in the middle of the income distribution of $1,000, or about 2 per cent.
与之相比，中等收入阶层的拟议平均减税额仅1000美元（约为税后收入的2%）。
The repeal of estate and gift taxes is especially problematic because it would provide a window for the very rich to use gift and trust structures to ensure that their wealth passes without tax not just to their children but to their grandchildren and great grandchildren, regardless of subsequent legislation.
废除遗产与赠与税的问题尤其大，因为这将为富豪提供一个窗口，可以利用赠与或信托结构确保他们的财富在不缴税的情况下，不但传给子女、而且传给孙辈和重孙辈，无论随后出台何种法规。
The Reagan tax reform simplified the code by eliminating the need for rules distinguishing ordinary and capital gains income, because these were taxed at the same rate, and by doing away with industry-specific shelter provisions.
里根税改简化了税法，消除了制定区分普通收入和资本利得的规则的必要（因为两者适用相同税率），并废除了行业特定避税条款。
In contrast, the Trump proposal creates sheltering opportunities by reducing to 15 per cent the tax rate on any income that can be characterised as coming from an incorporated entity.
相比之下，特朗普的税改提议把任何可以划为来自某个企业实体的收入的税率都降至15%，创造了避税机会。
Rather than reducing targeted subsidies, it would establish a highly dubious 82 per cent credit — the highest in the world — for financial equity investments in infrastructure.
特朗普税改不是降低定向补贴，而是对基建领域的金融股权投资提供高得难以置信的82%的税收减免——为世界最高水平。
This would mean not only disproportionate tax reductions for the upper-income group that has seen its incomes rise most rapidly over the past generation.
这么做，不仅让在过去二三十年里收入增长最快的高收入人群享受到过高的减税，
It would also mean grave damage to federal budget projections.
也意味着，联邦预算将遭到严重冲击。
The envisioned Trump tax cut is about the same size relative to the economy as the 1981 Reagan tax cut.
特朗普设想的减税相对于经济的规模，跟1981年里根的减税规模相仿。
It is worth remembering that Reagan, hardly a fan of reversing course or raising taxes, found it necessary to propose significant tax increases in 1982 and 1984 (the equivalent in today’s economy of $3.5tn over a decade) due to concerns about federal debt.
值得记住的是，出于对联邦债务的担忧，不喜欢出尔反尔或增税的里根，在1982年和1984年发现有必要大幅增税（相当于在今天的经济中10年增税3.5万亿美元）。
Today’s budget situation is much more worrisome.
现今的预算状况令人担忧得多。
The baseline involves much higher levels of debt and deficits.
首先现在的债务和赤字高得多。
Then the economy was suffering from a deep recession; now it approaches full employment.
其次，经济之前在深度衰退中挣扎，现在正接近充分就业状态。
If extreme tax cuts are legislated in the next months, uncertainty about the federal budget and about further tax adjustments is likely to rise.
如果未来几个月里极端减税措施成为法律，联邦预算和进一步税收调整的不确定性可能会升高。
Finally, I can find no basis in either economic history or logic for Mr Mnuchin’s claim that the proposed reforms would increase the economy’s growth rate from its current 2 per cent rate to the historical 3 to 4 per cent norm.
最后，无论从经济史、还是从逻辑上，我都找不到支持姆钦言论的任何依据，他声称提议的税改将把美国经济的增长率从目前的2%提高到3%至4%的历史正常水平。
Adult population growth has slowed by nearly a percentage point, the gains generated by more women entering the workforce have been exhausted, and it is far from clear why tax reform will hugely spur productivity growth.
成年人口增长率已下降了近一个百分点，女性进入劳动大军带来的红利已被耗尽，税改为何将极大刺激生产率提高，令人费解。
Indeed, because the Trump proposal would redistribute after-tax income towards those most likely to save it, push up long-term interest rates because of debt pressures, increase uncertainty and the advantages of overseas production, it is as likely to retard growth as to accelerate it.
实际上，由于特朗普的提议将使税后收入的再分配朝着最可能把收入存起来的人群倾斜，推高长期利率（因为债务压力），提高不确定性和海外生产的优势，该提议阻碍增长和加快增长的可能性同样大。
In the 1980s, treasury secretary Don Regan said the first Reagan reform proposal was written on a word processor to signal the administration’s openness to negotiation and radical alteration.
在1980年代，时任财长唐.里甘(Don Regan)表示，里根的第一项税改建议写在一个文字处理机上，用来表明里根政府对于磋商和大幅修改的开放态度。
We should all hope the Trump administration follows Reagan’s approach on both tax policy principles and a commitment to bipartisan negotiation.
我们都应希望，特朗普政府在税收政策原则和致力于两党协商方面，都采取里根式的做法。
