中国零售物业面临严峻前景

One of China’s leading property tycoons has warned of a grim outlook for retail landlords as overcapacity and the rapid growth of ecommerce hit shopping malls in the world’s second-biggest economy.

中国领先的地产大亨之一警告称，零售物业的业主面临严峻前景，原因是供过于求和电子商务快速增长打击了世界第二大经济体的购物中心。

Zhang Xin, the chief executive and majority owner of Soho China, said the commercial property developer focused on Beijing and Shanghai had “pretty much converted all of our retail space, with a very few exceptions, to offices”.

SOHO中国首席执行官和多数股股东张欣表示，这家专注于北京和上海的商业地产开发商差不多已经把自己的所有零售空间都改造为办公室，只有极少数例外。

“You have some really well run high-end retail that will do well,” she said. “But way too many badly run high-end [malls] that won’t do well. And the low end has been beaten by online, so they are quickly disappearing.”

“有一些真正经营有方的高端零售商场会做得很好，”她表示。“但是，太多经营不善的高端商场的日子不会好过。而低端商场已被网上商场击败，所以它们在快速消失。”

In the heady days of easy credit and rapid economic growth of the past decade, developers in China rushed to build malls. But many shops and department stores have closed in the past two years as sales have slowed and online commerce has accelerated, exacerbating overcapacity that has left ghost malls across the country.

在过去10年宽松信贷和经济快速增长的激动人心的日子里，中国开发商竞相建造商场。但在过去两年里，随着实体商店销售放缓，而在线商务加快增长，许多商店和百货公司关门，不断加剧的供应过剩在全国各地导致了鬼城般的商场。

Ms Zhang said Soho China, which she runs with her husband, was keen to tap into resilient demand for office space.

张欣和丈夫一起执掌SOHO中国，她表示，该公司热衷于利用办公室空间的需求弹性。

She cited Soho’s recently completed Guanghualu 2 project in central Beijing, where 30,000 square metres of retail space was converted into shared offices under the 3Q brand the company launched last year.

她举了最近在北京市中心完工的光华路SOHO2项目的例子，该项目的3万平方米零售空间被改造成共享办公室，使用该公司去年推出的3Q品牌。

“We have quite a nice shopping mall we designed but, having realised there was hardly any market, we turned this into our flagship 3Q with 3,300 seats,” she said on Thursday on a trip to Hong Kong to announce half-yearly results.

“我们有自己设计的相当不错的购物中心，但在意识到几乎没有市场后，我们把这里变成了我们的旗舰3Q，提供3300个工位，”她在周四到香港宣布半年度业绩时表示。

Ms Zhang, whose company is the biggest developer of offices in China’s top two cities, says the new serviced offices are popular with local and international internet companies such as Uber, Sina and Meituan Dianping that often need extra space at short notice.

张欣的公司是北京和上海的最大办公空间开发商。她表示，新的服务式办公室受到当地和国际互联网公司的欢迎，如优步(Uber)、新浪(Sina)和美团点评(Meituan Dianping)，这些公司往往需要在短时间内获得额外办公空间。

Soho China aims to have 16,000 seats across 16 centres this year and plans to expand to cities including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou.

SOHO中国计划今年在16个中心提供1.6万个座位，并计划扩张至广州、深圳和杭州等城市。

The move is part of a shift from an investment-heavy “build-and-sell” approach to a “build-and-hold” strategy to generate more stable rental income.

此举是转变经营模式的一部分，即从投资较大的“建造和销售”模式，转向“建造和持有”战略，以产生更稳定的租金收入。

Soho China’s revenue jumped by 85 per cent year-on-year to Rmb727m ($110m) in the first half of the year because of an increase in rental income, and profit after tax quadrupled to Rmb595m, boosted by valuation gains.

SOHO中国的营业收入在今年上半年同比跃升85%，至7.27亿元人民币（合1.1亿美元），原因是租金收入增长，同时税后利润增长三倍，至5.95亿元人民币，得益于估值攀升。

But she said Soho China was still open to selling some non-core properties, particularly with many cash-rich Chinese insurers willing to pay high prices for assets with good rental yields.

但张欣表示，SOHO中国仍有可能出售一些非核心地产，尤其是鉴于中国许多资金充裕的保险公司愿意出高价买下租金收益率较好的资产。

After the sale of one property this year drew bids from many Chinese insurers, she decided to put three more buildings on the market to cash in on their demand for suitable assets.

在今年出售一处地产吸引多家中国保险商竞价后，她决定出售另外三栋建筑物，借助保险公司对合适资产的需求获利。

Investors were initially sceptical about Soho China’s change of model but after slumping last year, its Hong Kong-listed shares are up by 40 per cent.

投资者最初对SOHO中国改变经营模式感到怀疑，但该公司在香港上市的股票在去年大跌后已反弹40%。

Analysts at Credit Suisse say the asset sales should “unlock value” and support dividend payments as Soho works to boost its rental income.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)分析师表示，上述资产出售应当能够“释放价值”，在SOHO中国努力提高其租金收入之际支持派息。