伦敦的未来 衰落还是转型(下)
European enclave
欧洲飞地
Another model for London would be for it to assert the European identity it has developed in the past 20 years by becoming a European enclave within an otherwise Eurosceptic Britain. The model for that is West Berlin, which survived as an enclave in hostile East Germany after the Berlin WAll was built. West Berlin was connected to West Germany by a narrow strip of railway line; that role would be assigned to the high-speed line to the Channel tunnel.
对伦敦来说，还有一条路。那就是坚守过去20年来形成的欧洲身份认同，成为一块欧洲的飞地，即使英国其他地区都怀疑欧洲。西柏林就是一个例子。在柏林墙修建起来以后，西柏林就成了敌意重重的东德中的一块飞地。西柏林仅仅依靠一条狭长的铁路线与西德联系；而穿越英吉利海峡隧道的高速铁路将扮演起这个角色。
London could only become a European enclave thanks to quite a lot of creativity about what it means to be a citizen. As proposed by Rohan Silva, founder of the tech co-workspace Second Home, London could have its own visa system, which would allow for freedom of movement between London and the EU, so long as people lived and worked in London. Presumably this would have to be matched by complex arrangements over London’s access to the single market and contributions to the EU budget. One leading London politician described the visa plan thus: “It is an absolutely bonkers idea. We are 100 per cent behind it.”
只有在定义公民方面发挥极大创意，才有可能使伦敦成为一个欧洲飞地。科技共同工作空间Second Home创始人罗恩•席尔瓦(Rohan Silva)提议，伦敦可以实施一套自己的签证制度，允许人员在伦敦和欧盟之间自由流动，只要人们在伦敦生活和工作。那么，在伦敦进入单一市场和对欧盟财政的贡献方面，想必需要复杂的安排来作为配套。伦敦的一名主要政治人士对这个签证计划的描述如下：“这绝对是一个疯狂的主意。我们100%支持。”
The UK might have to reimagine London as a “special European economic zone”, much as Shenzhen was China’s portal to the rest of the world. An alternative might be that London, like US immigration gateway cities such as Charlotte, North Carolina, could create its own identity card to entitle people to use local services even if they do not have full citizenship. People who did not get past the new points-based immigration system would be like the metics in ancient Athens: aliens who were permanently resident in the city.
英国可能不得不再次把伦敦想象成“欧洲经济特区”，就像深圳作为中国面向世界其他地方的门户一样。一个替代方案是，伦敦可以效仿像美国北卡罗来纳州的夏洛特(Charlotte)这样的移民门户城市，发放本地区自己的身份证，让没有正式获得英国国籍的人也能使用当地的服务。在积分制移民新政下没有攒够分数的人们就像是古代雅典的外邦人：永久居留在这座城市的外来人员。
None of this will be possible, however, unless the UK becomes even more of a patchwork state of devolved powers to nations, regions and cities, something a Theresa May-led government is unwilling to countenance even with former London Mayor Boris Johnson as foreign secretary. George Osborne was the great decentraliser. To force such a shift, London would have to become much more organised politically and mobilise a movement for independence, perhaps in alliance with other pro-European cities like Cambridge, Oxford and Bristol.
然而，除非英国将权力下放给各构成国、各地区和各城市，变成一个更加松散的国家，否则以上这些情况都是不可能的。而由特里萨•梅(Theresa May)领导的英国政府并不愿支持这种松散组合，即使担任外长的是前伦敦市长鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)。前财政大臣乔治•奥斯本(George Osborne)是坚定的去中心化人士。要强行推动这样的转变，伦敦的组织形式必须更有政治性，并且发起一场独立运动，或许还可以和其他亲欧洲城市，如剑桥(Cambridge)、牛津(Oxford)、布里斯托(Bristol)联合起来。
The hovercraft city
漂浮城市
A fourth option would be to imagine London hovering just above the territory of the UK, a global city-state governed by British law, like Singapore.
第四个选项是想象伦敦只是漂浮在英国的版图之上，受到英国法律管辖的全球化城邦，和新加坡类似。
London will respond to this current crisis in the way a great trading city always does, by following the money. The money is all coming from Asia. The people who see Brexit as an opportunity are Chinese and other Asian investors who want to snap up London property companies, heritage brands and tech companies. Central London at times already resembles Dubai-on-Thames. It could become Shangdon.
对于当前的危机，伦敦会以一个伟大贸易城市的一贯做法来应对——跟着资金走。目前资金都从亚洲来。把英国退欧视为机会、想要抢购伦敦的地产公司、历史悠久的品牌和科技公司的，正是中国和亚洲其他地方的投资者。伦敦市中心已经时不时像是泰晤士河上的迪拜。它也可以变成第二个山东。
Seen in this light, Brexit might be a blessing in disguise for London. An ageing Europe is gripped by slow growth and German-led austerity. Employment in banks has already passed its high point as artificial intelligence starts to lay waste to trading floors.
从这个角度来看，英国退欧可能会让伦敦因祸得福。日渐老龄化的欧洲已经被经济增长缓慢和由德国主导的紧缩所束缚。银行的就业高峰已经过去，因为人工智能开始让交易大厅变成无用之地。
This could be a chance for London to jump on to a different trajectory. Its strength is that it is a pragmatic, commercial trading city that gives shape to whatever forces are running through the world. Just as Miami is a largely Latin American city on the southern tip of the US, so London could become an Asian outpost in Europe.
对伦敦来说，这可能是转向截然不同的发展路径的机会。伦敦的长处在于它是一个务实的商业贸易城市，可以帮助塑造在世界各地蔓延的任何力量。就像迈阿密大体上是一个位于美国南端的拉美城市，伦敦也可以变成欧洲的亚洲前哨。
This shift would require London to follow its own foreign policy. It would have to be prepared to embrace Asian companies, values and culture in a way it has only played with so far. Shanghai was once a western enclave in China; London might become a Chinese enclave in Europe. We are just getting used to the idea of Chinese tourists; we will have to get used to the idea of Chinese landlords, owners and employers. Suck it up.
这种转变可能需要伦敦实行自己的外交政策。伦敦必须准备好接纳亚洲的企业、价值观和文化，在这方面，迄今为止伦敦只是漫不经心。上海一度是中国的西方飞地；伦敦也可能变成欧洲的中国飞地。我们正在习惯中国游客的想法；我们以后也会习惯中国房东、业主和雇主的想法。接受这个事实吧。
Muddling through
挺过危机
The most likely and perhaps the most optimistic scenario is that everyone muddles through, in Europe, in the UK and in London, perhaps with aspects of all four of the previous scenarios in play at the same time. This London would be part of a UK that would still be an associate member of the EU albeit on strained terms. A model for this is Greece and a model for London might be what has happened to Athens.
最有可能发生，同时也是最乐观的情景是，无论是在欧洲，在英国，还是在伦敦，每个人都凑合着对付过去，与此同时，上述4种情景的一些方面也可能出现。在这种情况下，英国依然是欧盟的准成员，尽管条件会很严格，而伦敦是这样的英国的一部分。对此可参照希腊，伦敦则可以参照雅典。
The Conservative party now faces a challenge not unlike the Syriza-led government in Greece, which threatened to pull out of the eurozone over the punitive terms of the bailout. Syriza, led by Alexis Tsipras, campaigned strongly against the plan, winning elections on that ticket in 2015. However, the exit deal offered by the EU was so unappealing that eventually most of Syriza swallowed its pride and decided to stay in the fold. The party split as a result. Surely the EU will play the UK the same way: offering it a deal so bad that choosing to remain seems the better option.
英国保守党现在面临的挑战与激进左翼联盟(Syriza)领导的希腊政府所之前面临的挑战很相似，后者因为纾困方案中的惩罚性条款威胁退出欧元区。亚历克西斯•齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)领导的激进左翼联盟激烈反对这一计划，并借此在2015年赢得大选。然而，欧盟提出的退出方案太缺乏吸引力，最终大多数激进左翼联盟人士都放下自尊，决定留在欧盟。结果是该党出现了分裂。欧盟肯定也会对英国使出这一招：提供一个非常糟糕的方案，使得选择留欧似乎是一个更好的选择。
If Brexit negotiations are drawn out; if the Leavers grow remorseful and distracted; if the terms offered are deeply unattractive, then the question of leaving the EU might once again become a dispute confined to the ranks of the Tory party and its splinter groups.
如果英国退欧协商旷日持久地进行下去；如果脱欧人士开始后悔，注意力也被其他事情分散；如果欧盟提供的退欧条款极度缺乏吸引力，那么退出欧盟的问题可能会再次变成一场局限在保守党及其分裂的派别之中的争论。
Athens, under the leadership of Mayor Giorgos Kaminis, has been a model of civic resilience during these crises. Not only has it had to cope with existential economic and political crises, but with an influx of refugees as well. Athens has come through, albeit with its port of Piraeus majority-owned by the Chinese government, thanks in no small part to a mass of collaborative self-help among citizens to take over the running of parks, public spaces and cultural institutions, inspired by Amalia Zepou, a documentary film-maker-turned-politician. London will have to be like Athens, resilient enough to cope, make do and get through the next few years before something akin to normality and common sense returns.
在市长乔治•卡米尼斯(Giorgos Kaminis)的领导下，雅典在这些危机中成为了城市韧性的典范。雅典不仅需要应对关乎存亡的经济和政治危机，还要同时应对涌入的难民。尽管比雷埃夫斯港(Piraeus)由中国政府持有多数股权，在纪录片制作人出身的政治人士阿马利娅•泽普(Amalia Zepou)的启发下，市民之间进行大规模的协同自救，接手公园、公共空间、文化机构的运营，这起到了相当大的作用，让雅典挺过了这些危机。伦敦必须效仿雅典，有足够的韧性去应对、将就、度过接下来的几年，直到类似常态和常识的东西再度回归。
‘The flour of Cities all’
“众城之精粹”
Whichever of these scenarios comes to pass, given the shock that London has experienced over the past few weeks, a few things have become clear.
不管今后会发生以上哪一种情景，考虑到伦敦在过去数周经历的冲击，有几点显而易见。
First, London will need new levels of ambitious, shared leadership and not just from the mayor. London’s universities should be pooling their expertise to chart a better future for the city. Cultural institutions should start programmes to promote European culture and values. London needs to show the world through thousands of everyday acts that the city remains open, a place where minorities are not just succoured but celebrated. This is an extraordinary opportunity for London’s leadership to galvanise a city that was close to self-satisfied complacency. The challenge and so the opportunity is far greater than the easy wicket Mayor Johnson enjoyed with the 2012 Olympics.
首先，伦敦需要全新水准的有抱负的集体领导，不应该只由市长来行使领导权。伦敦的大学应该集思广益，为这座城市描绘一个更美好的将来。文化机构应该启动推广欧洲文化和价值观的项目。伦敦需要通过成千上万种日常行动向全世界展示，伦敦依然是一个开放的城市，少数群体不仅能在这里得到帮助，还会受到欢迎。在这个已经近乎自鸣得意的城市，现在是该市领导者激发人们行动起来的绝佳机会。其中的挑战比前伦敦市长鲍里斯•约翰逊在2012年奥林匹克轻易达成目标的过程中遇到的挑战要大得多，但因此其中的机遇也要大得多。
Second, other European cities tempted to gloat at London’s travails should recognise that the faultline between more cosmopolitan, innovation-driven cities and their more nationalistic, cautious hinterlands now runs around the globe. Major cities in different countries share as much with one another as they do with the nations that host them. There’s a strong case for the recreation of the medieval Hanseatic League of free-trading northern Europe cities, of which London was one. European cities have a strong shared interest in a civic, open, cosmopolitan Europe. If cities are held hostage by the forces of provincial conservatism and nationalism then Europe has no future.
第二，其他忍不住为伦敦的困境而幸灾乐祸的欧洲城市应该认识到，更国际化、创新驱动型的城市和更具民族主义色彩、更谨慎的内陆城市之间的断层线现在贯穿全球各地。不同国家的主要城市之间彼此的共同点，就如这些城市和它们所在国家之间的共同点一样多。有充分理由重建中世纪欧洲北部城市之间自由贸易的汉萨同盟(Hanseatic League)，伦敦也是当年的汉萨同盟中的一员。一个市民化的、开放、国际化的欧洲非常符合欧洲各城市的共同利益。如果城市被地方保守主义和民族主义的势力挟持，欧洲就没有未来。
Third, London has a prodigious capacity for reinvention, precisely because it is messy, slightly chaotic and not overly planned. Above all it must remain a polyglot city, what the 16th-century poet William Dunbar described as “the flour of Cities all”.
第三，伦敦有惊人的再造能力，这正是因为伦敦有些混乱无序，并没有被过分规划。最重要的是，伦敦必须保持自己的多语性，就像16世纪的诗人威廉•邓巴(William Dunbar)所说的，伦敦是“众城之精粹”（London, thou art the flour of Cities all）。
London is not a place for people to feel sorry for themselves. No one owes the city a living. London must be a city for people excited by mixing with people who are different. Those who find that alarming should live quietly in Arcadian suburbs and provincial towns. Good on them. They should leave London to pursue its own role to give form to the ideas and forces that are remaking the world.
伦敦不是一个适合人们自怨自艾的城市。没人欠这座城市什么，以至于必须无偿供养它。伦敦必须是这样一座城市，人们会因为和与自己不一样的人相处而感到兴奋。那些对此感到惊慌的人们应该在郊区和城镇过着田园牧歌式的平静生活。这对他们挺好的。他们应该让伦敦去扮演自己的角色，即塑造在当下改变世界的思想和力量。
