中国从重工业向服务业和消费转型
Does China need Alibaba as much as Alibaba needs China? From an economic perspective, the answer might be “yes”. The company is the largest player in China’s online retail sales sector, reaching even remote rural consumers. It is an essential facilitator in the country’s attempt to shift from heavy industry towards services and consumption.
中国对阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的需要，是不是与阿里巴巴对中国的需要一样多？从经济角度来说，答案也许是“是的”。该公司是中国网络销售行业的最大商家，其影响甚至可以抵达偏远的农村消费者。在中国从重工业向服务业和消费转型的努力中，阿里巴巴是十分必要的一大助力。
That does not mean that Alibaba is immune to political risk. Hence its $266m purchase of the South China Morning Post, Hong Kong’s most-read English language newspaper. On Wednesday, to broaden the reach of the paper, the SCMP dropped its subscriber paywall. Alibaba hopes to reach more global subscribers, help them to understand China better — and thus, presumably, boost its own appeal.
不过这并不意味着阿里巴巴不会面临政治风险。出于这个原因，该公司斥资2.66亿美元收购了香港阅读量最大的英文报纸《南华早报》(South China Morning Post)。周三，为扩大该报影响力，《南华早报》取消了付费订阅墙。阿里巴巴希望将影响力延及该报全球更多读者，帮助他们更好地理解中国——从而或许也能提升该集团自身吸引力。
That may be only part of the story. In promoting a “balanced and fair” perspective on China, it may hope to score points with Beijing. Even for the private sector, such favour has suddenly become more critical. In December, Guo Guangchang, the entrepreneur and chairman of Chinese insurer Fosun, disappeared for a few days to assist authorities with unspecified investigations. Fosun’s shares dropped a tenth as investors realised that private sector scions are not beyond the reach of Party politics.
这也许只是故事的一部分。通过宣扬“平衡而公正”的对华视角，该集团也许希望能借此在中国政府处获得加分。即使在民营部门，这样的好感也突然变得更加重要。去年12月，中国企业家、复星国际(Fosun)董事长郭广昌曾失联数天，协助当局开展多项未公开的调查。复星的股价因此下跌了十分之一，原因是投资者认识到，即使是民营部门人士也无法超脱于党派政治之外。
Alibaba trades at 19 times forecast earnings for 2017, a very reasonable price given expected growth of 26 per cent. Political risk may be priced in (US tech leader Google trades on an 18 times multiple for slower growth). Given Alibaba’s cash pile of over $8bn, a quarter of a billion is affordable if it helps cut into the political discount, or keep it from widening.
阿里巴巴股票相对2017年预期盈利的市盈率为19倍。考虑到预计26%的增长率，这一价位非常合理。这其中也许已经把政治风险包括在内（美国高科技领袖谷歌(Google)增长率更低，市盈率却为18倍）。考虑到阿里巴巴逾80亿美元的现金量，如果有助于降低政治因素导致的估值减少，或者能阻止这类折扣因素继续扩大，2.66亿美元还是负担得起的。
If the SCMP becomes a full-time China-booster it will not win over global readers. There are plenty of state mouthpieces already. Alibaba may not care, whatever it says. Its priority is to participate, and help investors participate, in the growth of China’s new economy. It can only do this if it stays on the right side of politics.
一旦《南华早报》变成一家全天候为中国打气的报纸，全球读者是不会买账的。如今，政府的喉舌已经够多了。阿里巴巴也许并不关心该报说什么。该集团的首要目标是参与及帮助投资者参与中国新经济的增长。而要做到这一点，它不能在政治上站错队。
