石油将长期保持供应过剩 Clean energy growth set to prolong crude glut

The oil market will remain oversupplied until the end of the decade as the push for cleaner fuels and greater efficiency offsets lower prices, the world’s leading energy forecaster has said.

全球顶尖能源预测机构国际能源署(IEA)表示，推动人们使用更清洁燃料以及提高能效的举措，抵消了油价降低对石油消费的提振作用，因此石油市场供应过剩的局面将持续到2010年代末。

In its annual outlook the International Energy Agency said oil demand would rise less than 1 per cent a year until 2020, not fast enough to mop up a glut that has driven prices to multi lows.

在年度《世界能源展望》中，国际能源署表示，直到2020年，石油需求年增速将一直低于1%，这样的速度不足以消除导致油价跌至多年低点的石油供应过剩。

The slowdown in oil demand growth follows a near 15-year surge in consumption, driven by the rapid industrialisation of China and other emerging market economies.

在这轮石油需求增长放缓之前，受中国及其他新兴市场经济体快速工业化的带动，石油消费量曾出现将近15年的大幅增长。

But Beijing is moving away from dirtier fuels to less energy-intensive growth as it heads towards a more consumer-led economy. “We are approaching the end of the single largest demand growth story in energy history,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, told the Financial Times.

不过，在中国经济向消费拉动型转型之际，中国正在减少对污染较大的燃料的使用，转向能源密集度较低的增长模式。国际能源署署长法提赫比罗尔(Fatih Birol)向英国《金融时报》表示：“能源史上规模最大的一轮需求增长正接近尾声。”

“Demand is not as strong as we have seen in the past as a result of efficiency [and climate] policies [globally],” he added, saying the growth in renewables would further restrict demand for oil.

他补充说：“受（全球）关于提高能效（和气候问题）的政策影响，需求不像我们过去看到的那样强劲。”他还表示可再生能源的增长会进一步抑制石油的需求。

The IEA does not expect crude oil to reach $80 a barrel until 2020 under its “central scenario”, as excess supplies are slowly soaked up. After 2020 demand growth was expected to grind almost to a halt, increasing just 5 per cent over the following 20 years, the IEA said.

国际能源署预测了多种可能情景，按照其“核心情景”，原油供应过剩将被缓慢消化，原油价格要到2020年才会涨到每桶80美元。国际能源署表示，2020年后，需求增长预计会几近停顿，在之后的20年里将仅增长5%。

Demand is not forecast to hit 103.5m b/d until 2040 — from the current 94.5m b/d. Growth would be “moderated” by a return to higher prices, efforts to phase out subsidies and the switch to alternative fuels — especially in developed markets, the report added. “Collectively, the US, EU and Japan will see their oil demand drop by about 10m b/d by 2040.”

预计直到2040年，石油需求才会从现在的每天9450万桶增长到每天1.035亿桶。该报告补充说，油价回升、各国逐步取消补贴、以及各国（尤其是发达国家）改用替代燃料，将“平抑”需求的增长。“到2040年时，欧美和日本的石油日需求将合计下滑约1000万桶。”

Pledges made in advance of the Paris climate talks in December, Mr Birol said, would be a further catalyst for moves towards a low-carbon, more energy-efficient future.

比罗尔表示，12月份巴黎气候会议前各国做出的承诺，将进一步推动各项举措的出台，这些举措将推动人类走向低碳、高能效的未来。

Saudi officials warned this week that investment cuts and oil prices at about $50 for a prolonged time would have a “substantial and long-lasting” impact on supplies — a case the IEA also made in an alternative “scenario”.

沙特官员本周警告说，投资的削减及油价长期处于每桶50美元左右，将对石油供应产生“巨大而持久”的影响——国际能源署在另一种“情景”中也阐述了这一可能性。

Forecasting long-term oil prices is difficult, however. Two years ago the IEA said that although the rise of US shale oil would “shake” the energy world, a period of oversupply did not await.

不过，预测油价的长期变化十分困难。两年前，国际能源署曾表示，尽管美国页岩油的崛起会“震撼”能源界，但世界并不会在一段时期内面临石油供应过剩。