日本年轻人不同的命运 Japan's lost generation struggles to catch up

You get exactly one chance at success in the Japanese labour market, and as the world economy started to turn downwards in 2007, an 18-year-old Mr Takeda missed his.

在日本劳动力市场，你只有一次成功的机会——不多也不少。当2007年世界经济开始下行时，18岁的竹田（Takeda）错过了自己的机会。

His technical high school poured effort into matching its pupils with employers, but as a shy teenager in that year’s weak market, he was left without a job — and no way back. Mr Takeda, who does not want his full name published, describes what followed as six years of “black”.

他所上的技术高中努力帮助自己的学生找工作，但他是个害羞的年轻人，在那年不景气的市场环境下没有找到工作——也没法重新来过。竹田不希望文章中出现他的全名。他把接下来的六年描述成“黑色”的六年。

“If you don’t get recruited first time around it’s extremely difficult,” says Mr Takeda, who couldn’t even get a part-time position. “I didn’t have any work experience. Once you have a blank period on your CV it’s extremely hard to get a job.”

“如果你毕业时没找到工作，再想找到工作就非常困难了，”竹田说。他甚至得不到一份兼职工作。“我当时没有任何工作经验。一旦你的履历上有一段空白期，要找到一份工作就变得极端困难。”

Mr Takeda fell victim to the poisonous combination of a deflationary economy and Japan’s lifetime employment system. Lucky school and university leavers get a secure job for the rest of their career. Those who miss out enter a precarious limbo of temporary contracts and part-time work.

经济通缩和日本的终身就业制度是一种有害的结合，竹田就成为了这种结合的牺牲品。幸运的高中和大学毕业生会找到一份可以从事一辈子的工作。那些毕业时没找到工作的人，就进入了一种危险的没着没落状态，只能签临时工作合同、从事兼职工作。

With this kind of work increasingly on the rise in developed countries, Japan is an advanced case study in what happens when a large group of workers is marginalised in this way.

考虑到发达国家的这种工作越来越多，日本为考察当大量劳动者以这种方式被边缘化时会发生什么提供了一个高级案例。

Those who missed out on lifetime jobs in the aftermath of Japan’s 1990 stock market crash are now in their forties.

那些在日本1990年股市崩盘之后错过了终身制饭碗的人，如今已经40多岁了。

“There are many men who couldn’t find work when they were young, gave up, and they’re now in middle age,” says Yuji Genda, a professor at the University of Tokyo.

“有许多这样的人，他们在年轻时没找到工作，就放弃了，现在已步入中年，”东京大学(University of Tokyo)教授玄田有史(Yuji Genda)说。

There are now around 340,000 Japanese men of prime working age, between 35 and 44 who are out of the labour force — double the level of 20 years ago. “It’s become a big social problem,” he says.

日本目前约有34万处于职业盛年（35岁至44岁）的人不属于劳动力人口，这个数字为20年前的两倍。“这已经成了一个严重的社会问题，”他说。

Mr Genda’s research highlights the extremity of what happens to Japanese students who graduate in a bad job market. In the US, if the unemployment rate is one percentage point higher at the time of graduation, a high school graduate earns 3 per cent less on average.

玄田有史的研究凸显了在劳动力市场糟糕时期毕业的日本学生所面临的极端遭遇。在美国，如果高中毕业生在毕业时失业率高了1个百分点，那么他们的平均收入会低3%。

That disadvantage fades out after a few years. But in Japan, graduating in similar conditions means a 7 per cent wage hit on average, and more than a decade later students in that cohort will still be earning 5 to 7 per cent less. The brunt of that wage loss is borne by those who did not secure a regular job.

在美国，这一劣势在几年之后就消失了。但在日本，同样的情况意味着，那些高中毕业生的平均收入会低7%，十年多以后，他们的收入仍将低5%至7%。承受工资损失冲击的是那些没找到正规工作的人。

The polarisation of Japan’s labour market not only causes hardship for those on the wrong side of the lifetime system — it is also a significant economic problem.

日本劳动力市场的两极分化，不但令终身就业制度之外的人艰难度日，而且也构成一个突出的经济问题。

The productivity of temporary staff is lower, the IMF argues, because they are less motivated and companies do not train them.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)提出，临时工的生产效率更低，因为他们的积极性更低，公司也不培训他们。

The fund has urged Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, to prioritise overhauling the jobs market as part of the “third arrow” of Abenomics, his package of structural reforms designed to tackle deflation and boost growth.

IMF敦促日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)把彻底改革劳动力市场提高到优先位置，作为安倍经济学“第三支箭”的组成部分。“第三支箭”是指安倍提出的旨在摆脱通缩和提振增长的一系列结构性改革措施。

The Diet, or parliament, is considering modest reforms, such as letting companies pay professional staff by results instead of hours worked, but nothing that would break down what has become a two-tier market, economists said.

经济学家表示，日本国会(Diet)正在考虑实施温和改革，比如让公司根据业绩而不是工作时长给专业人员支付薪水，但经济学家表示，这么做将无法打破当前劳动力市场已经形成的分化。