本土劳动力成本上涨 东盟受益中国制造业外迁

Just over one-third of the manufacturers in China’s Pearl River delta — the country’s export powerhouse — plan to shift production capacity to cheaper locations within the country or to bases in southeast Asia, Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka, a survey of manufacturers shows.

一项针对制造商展开的调查显示，在中国的出口基地珠江三角洲地区，大约三分之一的制造商计划将生产产能转移至国内劳动力成本更为低廉的地区或者东南亚、孟加拉国、印度和斯里兰卡地区。

The main motivation for the capacity relocations is labour shortages that are driving wages higher and reinforcing pressures for more generous sociAl welfare payments, according to a survey of 290 manufacturers in the delta region conducted by Standard Chartered in February and March this year.

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)在今年2月和3月对珠三角地区290家制造商展开的调查显示，企业转移产能的主要动机是劳动力短缺推动薪资上涨，并使得企业不得不支付更为慷慨的社会福利缴款。

Survey respondents said they expected migrant worker wages to rise 8.4 per cent this year, up from 8.1 per cent last year (see chart) — suggesting a real wage growth of 6.8 per cent after allowing for a projected inflation of 1.6 per cent, according to Kelvin Lau, an author of the Standard Chartered report.

受访者表示，他们预计今年农民工薪资将上涨8.4%，高于去年8.1%的涨幅（见右边的图表）。渣打报告编制人之一刘健恒(Kelvin Lau)表示，这意味着在计入1.6%的预期通胀率之后，实际的薪资涨幅将是6.8%。

The finding corresponds with a nationwide survey of blue collar wages in April by China Confidential, an FT research service, which showed a year-on-year wage increase of 7.8 per cent.

该报告结论与英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务机构《中国投资参考》(China Confidential)今年4月对全国蓝领工人薪资的调查相符，后者显示蓝领工人薪资同比上涨7.8%。

Plans to relocate factories away from the delta area — which generates 27 per cent of the country’s exports and receives almost 20 per cent of its inward foreign direct investment (FDI) — reveal a divergence in destinations between some relatively low-cost inland areas of China and countries across Asia.

将工厂搬迁出珠三角地区的计划揭示出，不同企业计划搬迁的目的地不同，有的要搬到劳动力成本相对较低的中国内陆地区，而有的则要搬迁到其他亚洲国家。珠三角地区贡献了中国27%的出口，并接收了近20%的投向中国的外商直接投资(FDI)。

Some 20 per cent of survey respondents said they would move inland, down from 28 per cent in the same survey last year, while 11 per cent said they would move overseas, down slightly from 13 per cent in last year’s survey. Although the findings suggest a big further shift out of the delta area, most companies opted to stay put while boosting automation and other equipment investments to defray rising labour costs (see chart).

约20%的受访者表示，它们将会搬到内地，去年同一调查中这一比例为28%；同时11%的受访者表示，它们将搬到海外，略低于去年调查的13%。尽管该报告表明制造商进一步大规模撤出珠三角，但大多数公司仍选择留在当地，同时提升自动化水平和加大其他设备投资来抵消劳动力成本上升的影响（见左边的图表）。

The 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) is set to become the biggest beneficiary of the delta area’s waning competitiveness, the survey found. This is underlined by other advantages Asean enjoys; its labour force is expected to expand by 70m workers between 2010 and 2030, while China’s is likely to contract by the same margin, according to United Nations projections.

该调查发现，东盟(Asean)十国将会成为珠三角地区竞争力下降的最大受益者。东盟的其他优势强化了这一点：联合国预计，从2010年到2030年该地区将增加7000万劳动力，同时中国可能减少这么多劳动力。

“ASEAN is likely to benefit from comparatively low wage costs and abundant labour supply over the next 20 years,” the Standard Chartered report says. “Manufacturers shifting production to Asean are also positioning themselves to capture a share of the region’s growing consumer market, driven by high economic growth and a rising middle class.”

渣打报告显示：“东盟可能在未来二十年受益于相对较低的薪资成本和充裕的劳动力供应。随着东盟地区经济高速增长和中产阶层人数日益增加，将生产转移到东盟的制造商也在布局争取在这个日益增长的消费市场分得一杯羹。”

Given the weight of the delta area in global FDI flows, even a relatively minor relocation could have a big effect on investment into recipient countries. In 2013, for example, a total of $106.1bn in FDI entered the Pearl River delta, nearly four times the amount flowing into India, nearly five times that into Indonesia and 12 times that into Vietnam. Similarly, the delta area’s annual exports — of $607bn in 2013 — vastly exceed those from each Asean country.

鉴于珠三角地区在全球FDI流动中占着较大比重，即便是较小规模的产能迁移也可能对投资接受国产生巨大影响。例如，2013年，进入珠三角地区的FDI总额达1061亿美元，几乎是进入印度的FDI的四倍，接近印尼的5倍，是越南的12倍。珠三角地区的年出口额（2013年为6070亿美元）也远远超过东盟各国。

Among survey respondents who said they plan to move manufacturing capacity overseas, 36 per cent favoured moving into Vietnam, 25 per cent into Cambodia, 10 per cent into Bangladesh, 10 per cent into Indonesia, 5 per cent into India, 5 per cent into Sri Lanka, 5 per cent into Thailand and 3 per cent into the Philippines, Standard Chartered said.

渣打表示，在计划将制造产能迁往海外的受访企业当中，36%有意迁往越南，25%有意迁到柬埔寨，10%想迁到孟加拉国，10%想迁到印尼，5%想迁往印度，5%想迁往斯里兰卡，5%想迁往泰国，3%想迁往菲律宾。