中国人口老龄化蕴含巨大商机

In Confucian philosophy it is taken for granted that children will look after their parents. In 21st-century China, things are proving to be very different. With most adults working full time, plus the demographic issues resulting from the one-child policy, the country presents a fascinating case for those interested in the sociAl and economic challenges of ageing populations, not to mention the business opportunities.

按照儒学观点，子女照顾年老父母是天经地义的。但在21世纪的中国，情况已经变得大为不同。由于大多数成年人都有全职工作，加上独生子女政策引发的人口问题，中国不仅给研究人口老龄化所引发社会与经济挑战的人提供了一个极有吸引力的例子，而且因为老龄化而蕴含着巨大商机。

For just this reason Florian Kohlbacher moved to China in August after 11 years studying demographic change in Japan — almost 50 per cent of the population of Japan is aged 50 or older.

正因如此，弗洛里安•科尔巴赫(Florian Kohlbacher，见上图)去年8月来到了中国。此前，他花了11年研究日本人口变化——该国50岁以上人口已经占到总人口的近50%。

Now he is associate professor of marketing and innovation at the International Business School Suzhou, part of Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, where he will head up the Research Institute on Ageing and Society.

科尔巴赫现为苏州西交利物浦大学国际商学院的营销与创新学副教授，并将领导老龄化与社会研究所(Research Institute on Ageing and Society)。

The business school will take the lead in the institute to focus on the business implications of population ageing, though at least 10 other departments, including public health, architecture and industrial design, will be involved,

该商学院将牵头组建该研究所，重点研究人口老龄化蕴含的商业意义，而包括公共卫生、建筑和工业设计在内的至少10个其他院系也将参与研究。

Nationwide problems

全国性问题

With a population of 1.4bn, part of the issue in China is its scale, says Prof Kohlbacher, although the one-child policy has exaggerated the demographic trend. On top of this is China’s economic status. Japan was rich before the rise in its ageing population; China is not there yet. “The whole social system is not ready for this,” warns Prof Kohlbacher.

科尔巴赫表示，由于拥有14亿人口，中国的部分问题与其规模有关，但独生子女政策又放大了这种人口老龄化趋势。还有一个问题是中国的经济状况。日本在出现人口老龄化问题之前已经是个富国，而中国目前还不是富国。“整个社会体系并未准备好迎接人口老龄化，”科尔巴赫教授警告称。

A Chinese government report published in September pointed out that 8 per cent of China’s consumption related to products and services for older people, a market worth Rmb4tn.

去年9月中国政府公布的一份报告指出，与老年人相关的商品和服务占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的8%，老年市场潜力达4万亿人民币。

By 2050, according to the report, that proportion of gross domestic product will rise to a third.

该报告预测，到2050年，老年人消费占GDP的比例将提高至三分之一。

“This is a real business opportunity,” says Prof Kohlbacher. “Though 2050 might be far away, this is something to work on immediately. But companies are not putting much thought into it.”

“这是一个实实在在的商机，”科尔巴赫教授说，“虽然2050年还很遥远，但现在就要采取行动，而企业界对此并未予以太多关注。”

It is an attitude he finds hard to fathom. “Managers have problems converting these trends into specific applications. Management is about uncertainty, but demographics is one area where forecasting actually works.”

他觉得这种态度令人费解。“企业管理者在具体利用这些趋势方面存在问题。管理必然面对不确定性，但在人口问题上，预测确实有用。”

Impact on business

对商业的影响

First there is the ageing workforce. In China women usually retire at 55 and men at 60, so companies are losing people with tremendous experience and knowledge.

首先是存在老年劳动力。在中国，女性一般55岁退休，男性60岁退休，因此企业正在流失具有丰富经验和知识的人才。

Second, life expectancy in China is now 76, which means a healthy old age is increasingly achievable, which could lead to a tremendous demand for products and services for the “silver-hair market” as it is known in China, either through the adaptation of existing products or the development of new ones.

其次，中国目前的预期寿命是76岁，这意味着健康的晚年可期，将导致对“银发市场”商品与服务的巨大需求，企业可以通过对现有产品进行改造和开发新产品，满足这种需求。

The travel industry is a prime example, says Prof Kohlbacher. “It was something they [older people] couldn’t do in their youth because China was cut off.”

科尔巴赫教授说，旅游业就是一大例子。“由于中国以前比较闭塞，他们（老年人）年轻时无法旅游。”

Need for innovation

创新需求

Pharmaceuticals is another obvious market, as are care homes and nursing services. And in the west premium cars are popular with older people, says Prof Kohlbacher. What is more, in China, older people have money to spend. Traditionally they passed on wealth to their children and grandchildren, but the one-child policy has changed this and they are now thinking more about themselves.

制药业是另一个显而易见的市场，还有养老院和护理机构。科尔巴赫教授说，在西方，高端护理在老年人当中很受欢迎。此外，中国老年人手头有钱。传统上，他们会把财富留给子女和孙辈，但独生子女政策改变了这种情况，他们现在会更多为自己着想。

“This means things are special in China. It can already serve as a laboratory for us to study an ageing society,” he says. He believes this research will become more significant in future. “A lot of things here have to be built from scratch, so it is a new approach.”

他说：“这表明中国有着特殊的情况。中国已经可以成为我们研究老龄化社会的一个实验室。”他认为，这种研究在今后会变得更加有意义。“中国的许多东西都要从零开始，因此这是一条新的道路。”

Alternative research

其他研究项目

In the US, Boston College has an institute for ageing and work, while MIT Sloan has its AgeLab focusing on the labour market. But given the scale of the problem, rues Prof Kohlbacher, the levels of research are woeful.

在美国，波士顿学院(Boston College)设有一个老龄化与工作研究所，麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院(MIT Sloan)设有专门研究劳动力市场的老龄实验室(AgeLab)。但科尔巴赫教授遗憾地表示，由于老龄化问题已经相当严峻，当前的研究水平还很低。