非洲赤道丛林中的刚果大电站之梦

On a wooden stake planted in Africa’s equatoriAl forest, a small hand-painted sign reads: “Here will be erected the water intake of the Inga 6 power plant.”

在非洲赤道地区的森林里，有一个木桩上一个手写的小牌子写着：“因加(Inga)6号电站入水口。”

The hopeful claim refers to the latest plan to realise one of Africa’s largest and longest stalled white elephants: Grand Inga, the world’s biggest hydropower dam, not far from where the river Congo meets the sea.

这句充满希望的标语指的是完成大因加(Grand Inga)水电站项目的最新计划，这是非洲规模最大、拖延时间最长的大型项目之一，也将成为全世界最大的水电站，距离刚果河入海口不远。

Located in the far western extreme of the Democratic Republic of Congo, several dams and hydropower plants would deliver 42,000 megawatts, nearly twice the size of the world’s largest power station, the Three Gorges Dam in China. If built, it would double the electricity production capacity of Africa and resolve what Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, calls Africa’s “energy apartheid”.

大因加项目的地址位于刚果民主共和国的最西端，由多座大坝和水电站构成，装机容量将达4.2万兆瓦，接近目前世界第一大水电站中国三峡(Three Gorges Dam)的两倍。如果建成，它将让非洲的发电能力翻一番，解决世界银行(WB)行长金墉(Jim Yong Kim)所说的非洲“能源隔离”(energy apartheid)问题。

Grand Inga has for decades been the stuff of dreams. Now, say its World Bank backers, it is the stuff of cogent plans. One sign of Grand Inga’s growing momentum is that it has prompted an unprecedented offer from China to work alongside the US to finance big infrastructure projects in Africa.

数十年来，大因加水坝项目一直是个可望不可及的梦想。如今，世界银行支持这一项目建设的人说，这已经成为一项切实可行的计划。一个积极迹象是，中国史无前例地提出，愿与美国一道，为非洲大型基建项目提供资金。

“Energy is the development of a country,” says Richard Kapia Boshinga, director of Snel, the state power company, standing on a narrow bridge at the Inga rapids. “It’s got to work.”

站在因加河湍急的水流上方一座狭窄的小桥上，刚果国家电力公司(Snel)负责人理查德•卡皮亚•博欣加(Richard Kapia Boshinga)说：“能源关乎一个国家的发展。必须成功。”

Still, the project faces obstacles as great as its dimensions. Even if Washington and Beijing opt to collaborate, it remains hostage to shaky financing. It is also beset by opposition from environmental groups, poor management and the uncertainties of working in one of the world’s least developed and most corrupt countries.

不过，这个项目面临的困难跟其规模一样大。即便华盛顿和北京方面选择合作，项目的资金情况仍不确定。此外还有环保团体的反对、管理水平低下、以及在一个极不发达且极为腐败的国家开展项目所带来的不确定性等诸多困难。

“We think the whole project will cost more than $50bn, but who will invest money like that in Congo?” says Albert Mbafumoya, a senior adviser in the prime minister’s office.

刚果总理办公室高级顾问艾伯特•姆巴福摩雅(Albert Mbafumoya)说：“我们预计整个项目将耗资逾500亿美元，但谁会在刚果投那么多钱？”

Two dams – Inga 1 and Inga 2 – already exist but are in a sorry state. Conceived by Belgian colonialists and built more than 30 years ago under dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, five of their 14 turbines no longer turn, producing only 1,000MW for a country the size of western Europe.

因加1号和2号两座水坝已建成，但状况不佳。这两座水坝由比利时殖民主义者设计，30多年前在独裁者蒙博托•塞塞•塞科(Mobutu Sese Seko)主政下建成，如今14部涡轮机有5部已经坏掉了，发电量仅为1000兆瓦，而刚果的面积与西欧相当。

The lack of power is hurting miners in the Katanga region of southern Congo, where some facilities are losing the equivalent of a month of annual production from blackouts.

电力不足对刚果南部加丹加省的矿业企业造成很大影响，由于经常停电，一些矿厂一年下来相当于停工一个月。

Many previous efforts to develop the site, where the river’s broad brown waters narrow to little more than 100 metres after gushing down over 15km of rapids, have all stalled. But Congo has this time adopted a plan that some financiers believe might work: a seven-phase effort to build Grand Inga in increments.

人们曾多次试图开发因加河段的水力资源——15公里的湍急河段、宽阔的褐色河面，在这里陡然缩窄下落，落差达100多米。这一次，刚果采取了一种一些出资方相信可能成功的方案：分7个阶段，渐进式建设大因加水坝。

The incremental approach might lessen the objections of environmentalists, who warn of loss of species and agricultural land to coastal erosion and releases of methane gas. The smaller pieces would also be less daunting to finance, starting with Inga 3, which would cost $12bn and deliver 4,800MW.

渐进式方法或许会减轻环保主义者的反对，他们警告称，水坝的建设会导致物种灭绝、河岸退后侵蚀农地、甲烷释放。分阶段建设可能也会减轻融资压力，首先需要融资的因加3号水电站预计将耗资120亿美元，装机容量达4800兆瓦。

The government in Kinshasa hopes the World Bank and the regional African Development Bank among others will commit a quarter of the funds. That still leaves nearly $9bn to come from other sources, including the US, China and the private sector.

刚果政府希望，世行和非洲开发银行(African Development Bank)等能承担四分之一的资金。即便如此，还有近90亿美元的资金缺口，需要从美国、中国和私营领域等来源取得。

Jan Walliser, an official at the World Bank, says the third phase of Inga looks feasible. But he cautions: “Private investors will not step in until enough electricity can be sold to creditworthy customers – which is why exports to South Africa and sales to the mining sector have to be looked at to make it a viable investment.”

世行官员扬•瓦利泽尔(Jan Walliser)表示，因加3号水电站工程看上去可行。但他谨慎地指出：“在能够将足够多的电卖给有信誉的客户之前，私人投资者不会入场。所以必须观察水电站向南非和矿商销售电力的情况，以判断投资是否可行。”

South Africa last year agreed to purchase 2,500MW from Inga 3 as well as a chunk of subsequent stages. Kinshasa also hopes the domestic mining sector will take 1,300MW and the rest of Congo another 1,000MW. But Congo has a poor record in paying its electricity bills, making it difficult to raise money for a project that cannot guarantee payback.

南非去年同意从因加3号水电站购买2500兆瓦的电，并同意从后续几个阶段建设的水电站购买相当大一部分电力。此外，刚果政府希望国内采矿业将吸收1300兆瓦，其余行业再吸收1000兆瓦。但在刚果，电费账单经常被赖掉，这种情况使得人们很难为一个无法确保回报的项目融资。

After years of delay, mining companies are applying plasters to the existing infrastructure rather than waiting for Inga 3.

在多年的拖延之后，采矿企业正在对现有的基础设施修修补补，而不是等待因加3号水电站建成。

Glencore, the miner-cum-trader that has several big projects in Katanga and its partners are lending $368m out of its own pocket to rehabilitate the turbines of Inga 2 as a way to increase electricity production.

矿商兼贸易商嘉能可(Glencore)在加丹加省有多个大型项目，它的合作伙伴们将自掏腰包提供3.68亿美元贷款，修复因加2号水电站停转的涡轮机，以增加发电量。

Freeport-McMoRan, which has a $3bn copper and cobalt mine in Katanga, is lending Snel $220m to build a smaller local power plant. “Future expansion will be dependent on our ability to get incremental power, and reliable power,” says Bill Harris, the mine’s president.

自由港麦克莫兰公司(Freeport-McMoRan)在加丹加省有一座价值30亿美元的铜钴矿，它即将向刚果国家电力公司提供2.2亿美元贷款，以建设一座小型的地方电厂。该矿总裁比尔•哈里斯(Bill Harris)说：“未来的扩张将取决于我们能否获得更多稳定的电力供应。”

Moïse Katumbi, the governor of Katanga, agrees. He estimates miners could be digging 1.5m tonnes of copper a year right now, up from the current 990,000 tonnes, were it not for the power shortages. “The problem for Inga,” he says, “is that the project took so long.”

加丹加省省长莫伊兹•卡通比(Moïse Katumbi)表示认同。据他估算，要不是受到电力短缺的影响，铜的年产量可能不止现在的99万吨，而可能达到150万吨。“因加的问题在于，”他说，“这个项目花了这么长时间。”