美国经济硬数据显示不祥预兆

If you utter the words “hard versus soft” in Washington policy circles, it usually signals the start of an earnest foreign policy debate. Not right now, however.

如果你在华盛顿政策圈提到“硬、软”的问题，它通常标志着一场激烈外交政策辩论的开端。不过不是现在。

For as the presidency of Donald Trump approaches its 100-day milestone, a mystery is opening up around the US economy about what the “soft” and “hard” economic signals mean. This is a debate that investors urgently need to watch — not to mention policymakers too.

原因是在唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)上任近100天之际，围绕美国经济出现了一个谜团，焦点问题是“软”、“硬”经济信号意味着什么。这是一场投资者亟需关注的辩论，更别提政策制定者了。

The issue at stake is that if you look at recent so-called soft economic signals — those linked to sentiment — Mr Trump seems to be enjoying extraordinary success. Since he won the election, business confidence has surged: the National Federation of Independent Business survey reached its highest level in January since 2004, while the Business Roundtable CEO economic outlook survey displayed the biggest jump in the first quarter of the year since 2009.

问题是这样的：如果你看看近期的所谓“软”经济信号（与情绪挂钩的经济信号），特朗普似乎获得了极大的成功。自他赢得选举以来，企业信心飙升：全美独立企业联盟(National Federation of Independent Businesses, NFIB)的调查结果显示，今年1月信心指数达到自2004年以来的最高水平，同时商业圆桌会议(Business Roundtable)的调查结果显示，今年第一季度首席执行官们对前景的乐观情绪出现自2009年以来最大幅度的飙升。

More remarkably still, consumer sentiment jumped to a 17-year high last month in the University of Michigan’s survey. That, coupled with a fall in unemployment to 4.5 per cent and rising wages, has prompted consumers to borrow more: credit card debt rose above $1tn for the first time since 2008 in April.

更引人注目的是，密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的调查显示，上月消费者情绪飙升至17年来的最高点，再加上失业率降至4.5%以及薪资上涨，消费者开始加大借款：4月信用卡债务自2008年以来首次升至1万亿美元以上。

But if you look at most “hard” data — statistics about tangible economic activity — Mr Trump’s presidency does not seem a success. Last month manufacturing activity dropped for the first time in seven months, along with housing starts. Retail spending fell 0.2 per cent in March, the second month of decline, while consumer prices unexpectedly slid. Corporate investment has remained flat.

但如果你看看多数“硬”数据（有形经济活动的统计数据），特朗普的总统任期似乎算不上成功。上月，制造业活动指数出现7个月以来的首次下降，新屋开工数同样如此。3月零售支出下降0.2%，这是该数据连续第二个月下降，同时消费者价格指数意外走低。企业投资依然没有起色。

As a result, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “Gross Domestic Product Now” indicator, which is a composite of hard data, suggests the economy grew just 0.5 per cent in the first three months of 2017. This is slower than last year. It is also well below the 4 per cent growth rate that Mr Trump promised to deliver on the election trail.

其结果是，亚特兰大联邦储备银行(Atlanta Federal Reserve)的“当前国内生产总值”指标（一个硬数据的综合指标）似乎表明，2017年头3个月美国经济仅增长了0.5%。这低于去年。它也远低于特朗普在竞选期间承诺的4%的增速。

So what explains this split? The optimistic explanation is that this is merely a time lag effect. Hard economic signals tend to be backward-looking, since these capture activity that has already occurred, after a delay; soft data, by contrast, are about future expectations. So if you want to be upbeat — as many investors seem determined to be — you can argue (or hope) that this upturn in sentiment will eventually spark more tangible economic growth, as Mr Trump’s policy measures bite. It is also possible that the downbeat GDP data will eventually be revised up, since the statistics tend to be unreliable in winter, because of seasonal effects.

那么如何解释这种差异？乐观的解释是，这只是时间滞后效应。硬经济信号往往滞后，因为这些信号捕捉的是已经发生的活动，有所延迟；相比之下，软数据是关于未来的预期。因此，如果你想要乐观——许多投资者似乎决心保持乐观——你就可以辩称（或者说希望），随着特朗普的政策举措产生效果，情绪的改善最终将引发更多的有形经济增长。还有一种可能是，低迷的GDP数据最终将被向上修正，因为由于季节影响，冬季的统计数据往往不可靠。

But there is a second, more pessimistic, theory: namely that it is actually the hard data that tell the more accurate tale. The recent surge in sentiment has been largely sparked by hopes that the Trump presidency will deliver tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure investment.

但第二种更为悲观的理论是，其实硬数据才表明了更为真实的实情。最近情绪飙升在很大程度上是以下希望引发的，即特朗普政府将会推行税收改革、放松监管并进行基础设施投资。

However, as Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury secretary, acknowledged to the FT this week, tax reforms have been delayed — at least “a bit” — by the Congressional spat over healthcare.

然而，正如美国财长史蒂文?姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)近日向英国《金融时报》承认的那样，由于国会围绕医保问题爆发争吵，税收改革已被延迟——至少是推后“一点儿”。

And though Wilbur Ross, commerce secretary, is creating plans to roll back many of the estimated 7,000-odd regulations imposed during the Obama years, it is unclear how quickly this will occur. Similarly, nobody knows how fast the White House will implement the ambitious infrastructure plans being drawn up by Gary Cohn, chief economic adviser.

同时，尽管美国商务部长威尔伯?罗斯(Wilbur Ross)正在制定计划，废止奥巴马政府时期出台的估计7000来项法规中的很多规定，但尚不清楚这项工作能够多快完成。同样，没有人知道白宫将多快实施由其首席经济顾问加里?科恩(Gary Cohn)起草的雄心勃勃的基建计划。

That means there is a real risk that sentiment will decline in the coming months, closing that puzzling gap between hard and soft data. If so, Mr Trump’s economic “success” will seem like just a temporary sugar high; or so the second explanation goes.

这意味着，存在今后几个月情绪回落的切实风险，从而消除硬数据和软数据之间令人困惑的差异。若果真如此，特朗普的经济“成功”看上去将只是暂时的“糖亢奋”(sugar high，指摄入大量糖后短时间内出现的亢奋状态——译者注)；至少按照第二种解释会是这样。

So which of these two theories is correct? Sadly, I suspect — or fear — that the second is more likely to play out. For unless Mr Ross produces a startling set of deregulation manoeuvres in the coming months, or Congress rallies around a tangible tax reform plan, it is hard to see why growth should accelerate to 4 per cent anytime soon. Indeed, the only real reason for optimism about economic activity — outside that sentiment boost — is the upturn in employment and earnings numbers.

那么这两种理论哪种是正确的？遗憾的是，我怀疑（或者说担心）第二种解释可能更为靠谱。原因是，除非罗斯在今后几个月拿出一系列令人吃惊的去监管举措，或者国会同意一套切实的税收改革计划，否则很难看出增长怎么能很快加速至4%。的确，对经济活动感到乐观（除了情绪提振外）的唯一切实理由是就业和收入出现起色。

But the one thing that is crystal clear is that investors do not appear particularly worried about this soft/hard split yet — the stock market remains sky high. Those investors had better just hope that this “mind over matter” pattern can continue for a while and that Mr Trump is able to deliver real policy reform. If not, disappointment looms.

但是有一件事很明显，投资者似乎并不特别担心这种软数据和硬数据之间的差异——股市依然高涨。那些投资者最好希望，这种“精神胜过物质”的模式能够持续一段时间，而且特朗普能够拿出真正的政策改革。若非如此，失望情绪将逐渐占上风。