现在不是卖空中国的时候

China continues to dominate discussions about the heAlth of the world economy. Many are concerned about the country’s slowing growth and its ability to manage the difficult transition from a controlled economy dominated by manufacturing to a more open economy with greater reliance on domestic consumption. Some policy decisions last year also scared the market.

中国继续主导有关世界经济健康状况的讨论。很多人担心中国经济增长放缓，以及中国能否把控艰难的经济转型——从制造业主导的管制经济，转向更依赖国内消费的更加开放的经济。中国去年出台的一些政策决策也令市场感到恐慌。

While the risks are many and real, they are manageable and well-understood by China’s policy makers. This is not the time to sell China short.

尽管存在很多实实在在的风险，但它们是可控的，中国的政策制定者也很了解这些风险。现在不是卖空中国的时候。

The government is determined to achieve its average 6.5 per cent growth target between now and 2020 and it has the means to do so. We expect increased investment in regional development, support for production of higher value goods, and improvements to infrastructure.

中国政府下定决心实现从现在至2020年年均6.5%的经济增长目标，它也有办法实现这一目标。我们预计中国将加大在地区发展上的投资，支持更高价值产品的生产，并改善基础设施。

The government also plans to reduce the cost of doing business. And it will buffer the social and economic dislocations that inevitably arise as economies evolve. Recent official figures and our bank’s experience on the ground suggest such measures are taking effect, building the foundations for a more balanced economy.

中国政府还计划降低经商成本。同时，中国政府还将缓和随着经济发展不可避免出现的社会和经济混乱。最近的官方数据以及我们银行的实地经验表明，这些措施正在生效，为更平衡的中国经济奠定基础。

For many in the west, China is the land of export-oriented smokestacks and assembly lines, but the economy is already rebalancing. The dynamic, innovative services sector makes up more than half the economy and is growing annually at high single digit percentage.

对于很多西方人来说，中国是以出口为导向的烟囱工厂和流水线的集中地，但是中国经济已经开始再平衡。充满活力和创新的服务业在经济中的占比超过一半，每年正在以较高的个位数百分比增长。

Alibaba has become the world’s biggest retailer by building an ecosystem customised for more than 400m Chinese on-line consumers who increasingly shop on mobile devices. Wanda, China’s largest commercial property company and cinema operator, has built and runs shopping malls in 100 Chinese cities and is growing a financial services business to serve the 30,000 tenants of those malls.

阿里巴巴(Alibaba)已经成为全球最大的零售商，凭借的是为超过4亿日益通过移动设备购物的中国在线消费者打造定制化的生态系统。作为中国最大的商业地产公司及影院运营商，万达(Wanda)在中国100座城市建造并经营购物中心，同时正在发展金融服务业务，为购物中心的30000个承租商家提供服务。

By issuing millions of loyalty cards to retail customers, Wanda gains valuable knowledge about how its tenants are trading, allowing them to offer financial products, such as payment cards, tailored to customers’ needs. This is the old economy transitioning to new economy before our eyes – and on a massive scale.

通过向零售客户发放数以百万计的会员卡，万达掌握了其承租商家的宝贵交易信息，使得它们可以提供依据客户需求定制的金融产品，比如支付卡。这就是我们眼前正在发生的旧经济向新经济的转型——而且是大规模转型。

Over the next 20 years another 300m people – roughly the population of the US – are expected to move from the countryside to Chinese cities. Alibaba, Wanda and many others are plugging directly in to this burgeoning domestic economy. We expect China to navigate its way to self-sustaining growth less dependent on exports.

未来20年，预计中国将有3亿人口（与美国总人口数量大致相同）从农村迁往城市。阿里巴巴、万达和其他很多企业正在直接投入到中国飞速增长的国内经济中。我们预计，中国将渐渐转向自给自足的经济增长，减少对出口的依赖。

The other side of China’s economic rebalancing requires the government to wind down zombie manufacturing companies that are redundant in today’s economic environment. This careful dismantling will take many years and will cause upheaval as millions of workers are required to move to new locations and jobs.

中国经济再平衡的另一个方面要求政府逐步关闭制造业僵尸企业，它们在当今经济环境中已成多余。谨慎解决该问题将耗时很多年，同时，随着数以百万计的工人不得不前往新的地方和工作岗位，这将引起社会动荡。

The government faces a tricky task to achieve this transition without social unrest but it is capable of doing so, including through greater social security provision. The cost of addressing dislocated labour for targeted industries may be expensive, perhaps as much as 1-2 per cent of GDP.

中国政府正面临着在不引起社会动荡的情况下实现经济转型的棘手任务，但是它有能力做到这一点，途径包括提供更完善的社会保障。解决目标产业裁员问题的成本可能很高，或许高达GDP的1%-2%。

But in a more centrally-planned economy, much of it state-controlled, China may manage the process better than the US and Europe did in the 1970’s and 1980’s.

但是，中国经济的中央计划色彩较浓，政府控制着经济中的很大一部分，因此中国或许会比上世纪70年代和80年代的美国和欧洲更好地管控这一过程。

China’s gross debt has reached levels which may be uncomfortably high by international standards. The debt could well rise further, as China tries to apply counter-cyclical stimulus to give itself breathing space to drive through much-needed reforms.

中国目前的总债务已经到了按国际标准可能高得令人不安的水平。随着中国试图运用反周期刺激措施来获得喘息空间、推动亟需的改革，债务水平可能会进一步上升。

Whilst this stimulus is having diminishing effectiveness, I believe the transition is manageable, especially considering China’s debts are by and large domestically held and backed adequately by state and local assets. China’s net debt is comparable to levels in the US, UK and Japan, even after considering the debt of state-owned enterprises and the possible need for additional bank capital.

虽然这种刺激措施的有效性会递减，但是我认为中国的经济转型是可控的，特别是考虑到中国的债务主要由国内持有，并且得到国家和地方资产的足够支持。即使考虑到国有企业的债务和可能需要增加银行资本的情况，中国的净债务也与美国、英国和日本的水平相当。

Many question whether the costs of rebalancing will be borne by banks via loan losses. Were the manufacturing industry to restructure quickly, and were the inherent losses to accrue to those companies’ lenders, non-performing loans could be significant.

很多人质疑经济再平衡的成本是否会通过贷款损失由银行承担。如果制造业迅速重组，如果固有损失由那些企业的贷款方承担，不良贷款的规模可能会很大。

While it is not clear how this will play out, given the degree of state ownership in the banking system and the state’s available resources, we believe the country has the capacity to absorb the rebalancing costs.

尽管目前尚不清楚情况将如何演进，但是考虑到中国银行体系的国有程度以及政府的可用资源，我们相信中国有能力吸收再平衡成本。

Recent events have revived concerns about central control of the economy and policymakers’ willingness and ability to embrace a free market. China knows it has to loosen the reins and continue to open up its capital account.

最近的事态再次使人们担忧中国经济的中央管控和政策制定者迎接自由市场的意愿和能力。中国知道它必须放松管控，并继续开放资本账户。

In conversations with officials I detect a renewed sense of humility and a willingness to recognise past mistakes such as mis-steps over last year’s equity market bubble and poor communication around the devaluation of the renminbi. Policy communication has been clearer this year and officials accept there will be bumps on the road to a sustainable economic future, but they are committed to its success.

在与中国政府官员对话时，我察觉到他们身上新出现一种谦逊感，并且愿意承认过去犯下的错误——比如在去年股市泡沫中的错误举动，以及对人民币贬值的沟通不力。今年中国政府在政策沟通上更加清晰，政府官员承认在迈向可持续经济发展未来的路上会有颠簸，但是他们下定决心要实现成功转型。

China’s short-term challenges are significant. We don’t expect a smooth path during its transition. But for those who are willing to invest for the long term, the end goal remains enticing.

中国面临的短期挑战十分艰巨。我们不认为中国的经济转型会一帆风顺。但是对于那些愿意长线投资的人来说，最终的回报仍然诱人。