如何应对中国的廉价钢铁产品

The problem of industrial overcapacity has been troubling manufacturers across the world for years. Of late their complaints, particularly against China and especially concerning steel, have become more acute. Episodes like the proposed sale of the lossmaking Tata steel plant in Port Talbot in south Wales have brought into sharp relief falling prices and global gluts of production.

多年来，行业产能过剩问题一直困扰着全球制造商。最近，他们的抱怨（特别是针对中国，尤其是针对钢铁）变得更为严重。塔塔(Tata)拟出售位于威尔士南部塔尔伯特港(Port Talbot)的亏损钢厂，这让钢铁价格下跌以及全球产量过剩的问题显露无疑。

Overcapacity is without doubt a serious worldwide phenomenon and it is hard to argue against heavily subsidised Chinese producers being a major cause. But with responsibility so dispersed even within China, it is almost impossible to imagine any kind of negotiated agreement that will significantly bring down global capacity. So, unless governments elsewhere want to engage in expensive and open-ended — and, especially in the EU, probably illegal — state ownership of troubled steel companies, the best option is a judicious and limited use of trade remedies against subsidised imports.

产能过剩无疑是一个严重的全球现象，我们很难反驳一种观点：获得巨额补贴的中国制造商是一个主要原因。然而，即便在中国责任也广泛分散，因此我们几乎不可能想象任何一项经过协商的协议会大幅降低全球产能。因此，除非其他国家的政府希望对陷入困境的钢铁公司进行成本高昂且无休止的（而且可能是非法的，特别是在欧盟）国有化，否则最佳选择是审慎并有限地使用针对获补贴进口产品的贸易救济措施。

This week, China hit back at persistent complaints from the US that it had recklessly expanded industrial capacity and was dumping steel at knockdown prices into the US market. Lou Jiwei, the Chinese finance minister, made the somewhat reasonable point that some of the expansion in production was a result of China’s encouragement of investment to boost growth during the global financial crisis. He also contended that, while Beijing has promised to close excess capacity, it was harder than it appeared: much of the decision-making, including the provision of subsidised lending, was in the hands of local governments.

本周，中国针对美国不断发出的抱怨展开回击。美国抱怨称，中国肆意扩大工业产能，并以很低的价格把钢铁倾销到美国市场。中国财政部长楼继伟提出了一个有几分道理的观点：部分产量扩张是全球金融危机期间中国鼓励投资以促进经济增长的结果。他还提出，尽管中国承诺将关闭过剩产能，但难度比看上去要大：很多决策（包括提供补贴贷款）掌握在地方政府手中。

It seems unlikely that China, which makes up about half of global steel production, will shut down enough plants any time soon to make a dent in worldwide overcapacity. What are governments in the US and Europe to do?

占全球钢铁产量约一半的中国似乎不太可能在较短期内关闭足够多的钢厂、使全球产能过剩问题有任何改观。美国和欧洲的政府该怎么做？

One option they should swiftly rule out is to provide long-term nationalisation or other indefinite state support to steelmakers. The history of nationalising lossmaking manufacturing is a poor one, and such actions will very probably fall foul of EU state aid rules.

他们应该很快排除的一个选择是向钢铁厂商提供长期国有化或其他无限制的政府支持。将亏损的制造企业国有化的历史并不光彩，并且这些举措极有可能违背欧盟国家援助规则。

A better answer is trade remedies, particularly the use of antidumping and countervailing duties against unfairly priced and subsidised imports. The problem is not just that the rules are often arbitrary and skewed — the US has rightly lost case after case at the World Trade Organisation over the way it imposes such tariffs — but that resorting to temporary relief can all too often become a permanent way of life.

一个更好的解决办法是贸易救济，特别是针对不公平定价以及获得补贴的进口产品征收反倾销和反补贴关税。但问题是，不仅这些规则往往是专断且扭曲的（因此美国征收这些关税的做法在世界贸易组织(WTO)诉讼中理所当然地屡战屡败），而且诉诸短期救济很有可能会变成一种永久性方式。

If trade remedies are to be used, they need to take into proper account the full effects of cheap steel on the importing economies. Raising the domestic price of steel in the EU will benefit Port Talbot but it will increase costs for the numerous companies that use steel as an input. The EU, to its credit, has a “community interest” provision in its trade remedies that takes into account the wider interests of other producers and of consumers. The EU has accordingly been less keen than the US in imposing duties on steel imports from China and elsewhere.

如果要使用贸易救济，需要合理考虑到廉价钢铁产品对进口国经济的全面影响。提高欧盟钢铁价格将有利于塔尔伯特港钢铁厂，但它将提升将钢铁用作原材料的众多企业的成本。值得称赞的是，欧盟对贸易救济规定了一项“公共利益”条款，该条款考虑到了其他生产商以及消费者的更广泛利益。因此，与美国相比，欧盟不那么热心于对来自中国和其他地区的钢铁进口产品征收关税。

EU member states are embroiled in a contentious revision of the bloc’s trade defence measures, pitting traditional free-traders like the UK against habitual protectionists like Italy. Whatever emerges should reflect the principle that blocking imports has narrow benefits but wider costs.

欧盟成员国正围绕修订欧盟贸易防御措施展开激烈辩论，英国等传统自由贸易国家与意大利等习惯性保护主义国家针锋相对。不管结果如何，都应反映出如下基本事实：封锁进口的好处有限而代价更高。

Excess capacity and low prices can be devastating for those working in the affected industries. Yet care should be taken, when dealing with the human consequences of global production gluts, that a distortion in one part of the economy not be allowed to have self-defeating effects elsewhere.

对于在受到影响的行业工作的人而言，产能过剩和低价可能是灾难性的。然而在处理全球产量过剩对人的影响时，应注意经济某一方面的扭曲不应给其他方面带来弄巧成拙的影响。