短线视点 近看中国经济数据 China close up does not look so dire

There is a joke among Hong Kong investors that the further away from Beijing a commentator may be, the more certain the opinion on China.

香港投资者之间流传着一个笑话：一个评论员离北京的距离越遥远，他对自己关于中国的观点就越确定。

By that measure, Argentines should be the most definite in their views. But those in New York and London cannot be far behind, and they are almost unanimous in their negativity. Their view was only reinforced by the Federal Reserve’s apparent reference to China’s slowdown in its decision not to raise interest rates last week. A growing number also refuse to trust Chinese data and prefer their own estimates — resulting in still-lower numbers.

以此来衡量，阿根廷人对自己的观点应该是最确定的。不过那些身在纽约和伦敦的人也不会落后太远，而这些人几乎一致抱悲观态度。而美联储(Fed)上周不加息的决定明显是考虑到中国经济放缓，这一点进一步支持了他们的观点。拒绝信任中国的数据，宁愿自己估计的人也越来越多——他们得出的中国增长率估值就更低。

That China’s economy is slowing and its data-collection is in need of improvement is not disputed. Its previous over-reliance on industry is clear and its data analysis is still that of an emerging market. In particular, its consumer data are poor compared with simpler measures of factory output and power generation.

中国的经济正在放缓，其数据收集需要改善，这是不存在争议的。中国此前显然过于依赖于工业，中国的数据分析也依然停留在新兴市场国家的水平。尤其是，比起工业产出和发电量这样更简单的衡量指标，其消费者数据质量不佳。

However, on some of the consumer-related numbers, China does not look quite so dire. In August, retail sales were up 11 per cent year on year, and airline passenger numbers rose by a tenth. Cinema box-office receipts were 45 per cent higher. At the same time, the number of big cities recording rising house prices hit a 12-month peak. Sales of 4G mobile phone contracts are rising almost 200 per cent, according to Bernstein — a rate only ever bettered by South Korea, the world leader in mobile internet adoption.

然而，在某些与消费者相关的数据方面，中国的情况看起来并没有那么糟糕。8月份，零售销售额同比上涨11%，航空公司客运量增长10%。电影票房收入上升45%。同时，房价上升的大城市数量触及12个月高点。据伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)的数据，中国的4G手机合约销售增长了100%，曾经超越过这个数字的只有移动互联网普及率居世界之首的韩国。

Those numbers do not suggest that growth is a long way below the reported, if doubted, 7 per cent — nor that consumers are worried about it. While the 4G adoption rate will have been boosted by the fact that China Mobile’s 3G standard is barely usable, those faster smartphones will only increase ecommerce — further muddying old indicators such as new store counts, which do not capture the online-to-offline market.

这些数据表明，中国的增长并非远低于官方公布（但是受到质疑）的7%，中国的消费者也并不为增长放缓担忧。尽管中国移动(China Mobile)的3G标准几乎不可用的事实肯定是促使中国4G普及率提高的因素，但智能手机上网速度提高只会提振中国的电子商务业务——这进一步降低了新店数量等旧指标的指示作用，因为这些数据没有反映“线上到线下”(O2O)市场。

None of this is to say that China’s economy is not slowing, only that — like the proverbial elephant whose form the blind men tried to extrapolate solely from the bit they were holding — it does not look the same from all points.

以上都不是说中国经济并未放缓，只是——就像盲人摸象的寓言一样——中国的情况从各个角度来看并不相同。

Investors seeking to understand China better should perhaps do so from closer range — and remember that not every data set necessarily points down.

想要看懂中国的投资者们或许最好更近距离地观察它，并记住并非每一组数据都指向下行的方向。