朝鲜与俄罗斯 孤立中的牵手

For diplomat Im Cheon Il, there has never been a better time to invite Russian children to spend their holidays at a North Korean youth camp.

对朝鲜驻俄罗斯东部使节Im Cheon Il来说，没有比眼下更适合邀请俄罗斯孩子到朝鲜青少年夏令营度假的时机了。

“The politicAl relationship between our countries is developing more productively than ever before,” said Mr Im, an envoy based in eastern Russia, after making the proposal this week to officials from the northeastern territory of Yakutia, which published the remarks on its website.

这名外交官说：“我们两国间政治关系的发展比以往任何时候都更有成效。”本周，他向来自俄东北部雅库特(Yakutia)的官员提出了上述建议，雅库特政府则在其网站上发布了上述谈话。

He is one of many to have observed a marked deepening of ties between the countries, as shared diplomatic and economic problems push them into each other’s arms.

还有很多人像Im Cheon Il一样注意到了朝俄关系的明显深化。外交和经济问题正促使这两个国家投入彼此的怀抱。

Russia has stepped up economic co-operation with North Korea as part of its “Look East” policy, which has been lent urgency by its growing diplomatic and economic isolation from the west. A beneficiary of Soviet largesse during the cold war, North Korea has enthusiastically welcomed Moscow’s attentions, designating 2015 a year of friendship with Russia as it seeks to attract direly needed investment and ease an overwhelming economic reliance on Beijing.

作为“向东看”政策的一部分，俄罗斯加大了与朝鲜的经济合作。俄罗斯在外交和经济上日益受到西方孤立，给这项政策增添了紧迫感。作为冷战时期苏联慷慨援助的受益者，朝鲜对俄罗斯给予它的关注表示了热烈欢迎，并将2015年定为朝俄友好年。朝鲜希望从俄罗斯吸引它亟需的投资，并在经济方面减轻对中国的过度依赖。

A symbolic crowning of this trend looks set to come next month, when Kim Jong Un is expected to make his first foreign trip as North Korea’s leader to attend a Moscow parade that will mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the second world war.

标志着这一趋势发展到高潮的事件似乎将在下月出现。届时，金正恩(Kim Jong Un)有望作为朝鲜领导人首次出访外国，出席莫斯科为纪念二战结束70周年举行的阅兵式。

In March Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said the North Korean leader had accepted the invitation to the parade, although sceptical officials in Seoul have pointed out that the word “leader” might apply to Kim Yong Nam, the nominal head of state, and North Korea’s official media have been silent on the subject.

今年3月，俄外长谢尔盖•拉夫罗夫(Sergei Lavrov)表示，朝鲜领导人已接受出席阅兵式的邀请，尽管持怀疑态度的韩国官员指出，这位朝鲜“领导人”可能指的是朝鲜名义上的国家元首金永南(Kim Yong Nam)。朝鲜官方媒体则在这件事上一直保持沉默。

Yet Mr Kim’s visit would be just the latest stage in a flurry of high-level contact between the two nations this year.

不过，如金正恩访俄，将只标志着两国之间一年来一连串高层接触发展到最新阶段。

In April last year Yuri Trutnev, Russia’s deputy prime minister, went to Pyongyang in the first visit at that level since the fall of the Soviet Union. North Korea reciprocated in the autumn by sending Ri Su Yong, the foreign minister, and Choe Ryong Hae, a top aide to Kim Jong Un, to Russia for two unusually long trips totalling 18 days.

去年4月，俄副总理尤里•特鲁特涅夫(Yuri Trutnev)访问平壤，这是苏联解体以来俄副总理级别官员首次访朝。去年8月，朝鲜投桃报李分别派遣外相李洙墉(Ri Su-yong)和金正恩最高助手崔龙海(Choe Ryong-hae)访俄，这两次出访时间都特别长，总计18天。

These meetings have yielded tangible results, notes Alexey Maslov at Moscow’s National Research University, contrasting it with the previous pattern of “political decoration without economic content”.

俄罗斯国立研究大学(National Research University)的阿列克谢•马斯洛夫(Alexey Maslov)指出，这些会晤取得了实质性成果，与此前那种“没有经济内容的政治装点”形成鲜明对照。

The most important agreement was sealed in October, when Russia agreed to refurbish 3,500km of North Korean rail track in exchange for access to coal and other minerals.

去年10月，两国敲定了一项极其重要的协议：俄同意改造朝鲜3500公里长的铁路，以换取对朝方煤炭和其他矿产资源的开采权。

Pyongyang’s decision to open its abundant mineral resources to Russia follows signs of frustration at its dependence on China for demand and investment in this area.

平壤方面决定向俄开放其丰富的矿产资源前，有迹象显示，朝鲜依靠中国解决矿产需求和投资的努力遭遇了挫折。

Jang Song Thaek, Mr Kim’s uncle and top adviser who had led economic engagement with China, was accused of “selling off precious resources of the country at cheap prices” before his execution for treason in December 2013. North Korea has received significantly lower rates of payment than other exporters for its shipments to China of minerals such as zinc and lead, according to Kevin Stahler at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

金正恩的姑父兼最高顾问、曾领导朝中经济合作的张成泽(Jang Song Thaek)被控“廉价变卖国家宝贵资源”，并在2013年12月被以叛国罪处决。彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的凯文•斯塔勒(Kevin Stahler)表示，朝鲜出口到中国的锌、铅等矿产的价格显著低于其他出口国。

The track upgrade would follow Russia’s completion in September 2013 of a rail link connecting its eastern city of Kazan with Rason, a North Korean special economic zone where Russia has sole use of one of the port’s three piers.

在上述铁路线路改造之前，俄罗斯还于2013年9月建成了一条连接俄东部城市喀山(Kazan)与朝鲜罗先经济特区(Rason special economic zone)的铁路。罗先港有三个码头，其中一个专供俄罗斯使用。

“North Korea is the gateway to South Korea and other Asian markets,” says Georgy Toloraya, head of Korean programmes at the Russian Academy of Sciences. “The railroad takes us to the Pacific coal market; if things go to plan, we might get shipments of South Korean and Japanese containers, which could revive the trans-Siberian railway.”

“朝鲜是（俄）通往韩国及其他亚洲市场的大门，”俄罗斯科学院(Russian Academy of Science)朝鲜半岛项目主管格奥尔基•托洛拉亚(Georgy Toloraya)说。“这条铁路将把我们带到太平洋地区的煤炭市场；如果一切按计划进行，我们可能会装载发自韩国和日本的集装箱货物，那将让西伯利亚大铁路(Trans-Siberian Railway)重焕生机。”

Russia has sought where possible to include both Koreas in its projects on the peninsula, in a long-term bet on their rapprochement and perhaps unification.

俄罗斯已在设法尽量将朝韩同时纳入其朝鲜半岛辐射力中——这是一项长期押注，赌的是朝韩两国未来将实现和解、也许还会实现统一。

In November a pilot shipment of coal was transported from Russia to South Korea via Rason in what is hoped to become a full-scale trading link, while Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, discussed the potential for a gas pipeline running the length of the Korean peninsula during a visit to Seoul in 2013.

去年11月，一批煤炭被尝试性地从俄罗斯经由罗先运至韩国——人们期望这一试点会发展为一种全面的贸易联系。2013年访韩期间，俄总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)与韩方探讨了建设一条纵贯朝鲜半岛的天然气管道的可能性。

The deepening relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang has drawn scepticism in Seoul, however. In a speech last month Hwang Joon-kook, South Korea’s special envoy for security on the peninsula, suggested that Pyongyang could try to use Russia as “leverage” in its relationship with China.

然而，俄朝关系的不断深化已引起首尔方面的怀疑。韩国朝鲜半岛事务特别代表黄浚局(Hwang Joon-kook)在上月一次讲话中暗示，平壤方面可能企图将俄罗斯用作撬动朝中关系的“杠杆”。

This would echo the strategy pursued by North Korea’s founding leader Kim Il Sung, who sought to exploit the Sino-Soviet split to extract assistance from both sides.

这种做法呼应了朝鲜建国领袖金日成(Kim Il Sung)采取的策略，后者曾设法利用中苏之间的分歧从两方都赢取了援助。

But “Russia is not in a position to expand economic co-operation with North Korea”, Mr Hwang argued, pointing to the impact on Moscow of sanctions and low oil prices, as well as its reluctance to jeopardise relations with China.

但黄浚局表示，考虑到国际社会对俄制裁和低油价对俄罗斯造成的冲击、以及莫斯科方面不愿破坏俄中关系，“俄罗斯没有条件扩大与朝鲜的经济合作”。