治理机制是理解新兴市场的关键

Most attempts to define emerging markets start from a macroeconomic perspective, but the results often bear little relationship to the reality of equity investing.

多数定义新兴市场的尝试是从宏观经济角度出发的，其结果往往与股市投资的现实关系不大。

As equity specialists we place the interests of the minority investor firmly at the centre of our approach. We conclude that the distinction between emerging and developed markets is no longer useful for investors, and should be replaced by a more intense focus on individual countries, using the categorisation of ‘Governance Regimes’ as a starting point for analysis.

作为股票专家，我们将少数股权投资者的利益牢牢置于我们研究方法的核心。我们得出的结论是，新兴市场与发达市场之间的差异不再对投资者有用，取而代之的应当是更为专注地关注单个国家，利用“治理机制”分类作为分析的起点。

The three major intellectual underpinnings of emerging equity markets as a distinct and coherent asset class have come apart since the 2008/09 financial crisis.

自2008/09年金融危机以来，新兴市场股票作为一个独特且连贯的资产类别的3大理论支柱已瓦解。

Emerging market growth rates have slowed, casting doubt on the argument that per capita incomes will converge over time.

新兴市场增速已经放缓，使“人均收入将随着时间的推移而趋同”的主张面临质疑。

The slowdown in China has undermined the commodity supercycle to the detriment of many emerging economies and equity markets.

中国经济放缓破坏了“大宗商品超级周期”，这不利于很多新兴经济体和股市。

The assumption that the major political features of emerging markets would converge towards the US/UK model is no longer valid, as most have moved towards less liberal forms of governance in the wake of the crisis.

“新兴市场的主要政治特征将与英美模式趋同”的假设不再成立，因为在金融危机过后，多数新兴国家转向不那么自由的治理模式。

The move away from liberal models of sovereign and corporate governance has been the key driver of both the deterioration in economic growth prospects and the poor returns from emerging equity markets.

背弃自由化的主权和公司治理模式，是近年经济增长前景恶化以及新兴市场股市回报率低的主要推动因素。

The dominance of state-directed models of sovereign and corporate governance in China, Russia, Brazil and elsewhere, has undermined the return on invested capital across a large part of the corporate sector, thereby reducing productivity and potential GDP growth across their respective economies.

在中国、俄罗斯、巴西等国，由政府主导的主权和公司治理模式占据支配地位，这削弱了很大一部分企业部门的投资资本回报率，进而降低了相关经济体的生产率和潜在国内生产总值(GDP)增速。

The potential impact of governance-related issues at both an economic and financial market level was apparent in the financial metrics of the listed corporate sector long before it became apparent to macroeconomic forecasters, who have consistently overestimated EM growth prospects.

早在宏观经济预测者（这些人士一向高估新兴市场增长前景）明白过来之前，经济和金融市场两个层面的治理相关问题的潜在影响，就明显体现于上市公司的财务指标。

Instead of the existing division between emerging and developed markets, we suggest that investors focus their analysis on the sovereign and governance characteristics of individual countries and markets using a framework based on six types of governance regimes as a starting point.

我们认为，作为一个起点，投资者与其像现在这样关注新兴市场与发达市场之间的差异，不如利用一种基于6种治理机制的框架，分析单个国家及其市场的主权和治理特点。

The Ecstrat categorisation of governance regimes is based on the impact of the prevailing system of control within the listed corporate sector together with the broader balance of social, political and financial forces, on the interests of minority shareholders.

Ecstrat对治理机制的分类，基于上市公司的主流控制体系，以及社会、政治和金融因素的整体平衡对少数股东利益的影响。

How the governance regime matrix works

治理机制矩阵如何运转？

Our methodology to determine the dominant governance regime in each market augments the existing academic literature on the varieties of capitalism with a detailed examination of a series of quantitative and qualitative criteria from the perspective of a minority equity investor.

我们用于确定每个市场支配性治理机制的方法，以有关资本主义的各个变种的现有学术资料为基础，辅之以从少数股权投资者的视角出发，对一系列量化和定性标准进行详细考察。

We start by categorising the control of each of the 3,563 stocks in the Ecstrat database as either dispersed, state, hierarchical (family), founder, network or foreign to determine the dominant system for each market.

我们首先将Ecstrat数据库中的3563只股票的控制分为分散、国有、等级制度（家族）、创始人、网络或外资等类别，以确定每个市场的支配性机制。

We then analyse the relationship between the listed corporate sector and the state, including such factors as the regulatory and fiscal environment, before bringing in other key stakeholders such as the trade unions.

我们接着分析了上市公司与政府的关系，包括监管和财政环境等因素，然后考虑工会等其他关键的利益相关者。

Finally, we examine how these factors are reflected in the financial characteristics and operating metrics of the listed companies, in particular how control related factors determine financing and capital investment strategies.

最后，我们考察了这些因素如何反映在上市公司的财务特点以及经营指标上，尤其是控制类因素如何决定融资和资本投资战略。

The six governance regimes range from liberal and co-ordinated, which include most of what are currently classified as developed equity markets, to hierarchical, guided and authoritarian regimes, which are more characteristic of emerging and frontier markets. The six regimes are as follows:

这6种治理机制从自由和协调的机制（包括目前被列为发达股市的多数市场）到等级制、有引导的机制乃至威权机制（这些在更大程度上表征了新兴市场和前沿市场）。这6种机制如下：

1. Liberal governance regime (LGR)

1.自由治理机制（LGR）

The characteristics of countries in this regime include a leading role for equity markets and the prioritisation of the rights and interests of minority shareholders. Companies in LGR regimes exhibit a separation of ownership from control, and a high proportion of them have no concentrated controlling shareholder. These countries have open economies with flexible supply sides and often overly light regulation.

实行这种机制的国家的特点是股市发挥重要作用，少数股东权益得到重视。在这种机制下，公司表现出所有权与控制权分离，很多公司没有权力集中的控股股东。这些国家有着开放的经济，供应面灵活，往往监管过轻。

Countries in this category include the US, UK, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Ireland.

这类国家包括美国、英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、南非和爱尔兰。

2. Co-ordinated governance regime (CGR)

2.协调治理机制(CGR)

The characteristics of countries in this regime include a smaller role for equity markets than in LGRs and a role for stock markets that is often subordinate to banks. Corporations in CGR countries often have financial and social stakeholders, including the state and banks, that play an important role in corporate governance. Effective corporate control is usually exercised by block holders or networks and not delegated to managers. Hostile takeovers are rare.

这种机制的国家的特点是股市作用小于自由治理机制，股市的地位往往次于银行。在这种机制的国家，公司经常有金融和社会利益相关者，包括政府和银行，它们在公司治理方面发挥着重要作用。实际公司控制权通常由大股东或网络行使，而不是把权力委托给管理者。敌意收购很少。

Countries in this category include Germany, France, Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Poland and Austria.

这类国家包括德国、法国、挪威、瑞典、荷兰、瑞士、比利时、波兰和奥地利。

3. Network governance regime (NGR)

3.网络治理机制(NGR)

The characteristics of countries in this regime include a dominant role for a network of interlocking ownership interests within the economy. Equity markets are generally subordinate to some companies and/or individuals within the network.

这种机制的国家的特点是，经济体内部环环相扣的所有权利益网络占据支配性地位。股市的角色总体上不如网络内的一些公司和/或个人。

Corporate control structures often appear opaque to external observers because these networks are rarely transparent. Sovereign and corporate governance structures tend to be very consensus based.

外部观察人士往往看不懂公司控制结构，因为这些网络很少透明。主权和公司治理结构往往在很大程度上基于共识。

This category includes Japan and Taiwan.

这一类包括日本和台湾。

4. Hierarchical governance regime (HGR)

4.等级治理机制(HGR)

The characteristics of countries in this regime include equity markets dominated by concentrated holdings of mainly family-controlled companies, which are not so subject to political and social constraints as in CGRs.

这种机制的国家的特点是，股市由主要为家族控股的公司集中持股占主导地位，这些公司不受协调治理机制中的政治和社会限制。

Equity free float as a proportion of total market capitalisation tends to be relatively low. HGR companies tend to give a relatively low priority to the interests of minority shareholders and many are characterised by blurred boundaries between the state and private sector, resulting in moral hazard.

自由流通股占总市值的比例相对较低。等级制度的公司往往将少数股东的利益排在相对较低的位置，而且很多公司的特点是政企之间界限模糊，引发道德风险。

This category includes South Korea, India, Philippines, Greece, Turkey, Spain, Italy, Mexico, Hong Kong, Brazil (increasingly authoritarian), Portugal, Chile, Indonesia and Thailand.

这一类包括韩国、印度、菲律宾、希腊、土耳其、西班牙、意大利、墨西哥、香港、巴西（该国越来越威权）、葡萄牙、智利、印尼和泰国。

5. State-guided governance regime (SGR)

5.政府引导的治理机制(SGR)

The characteristics of countries in this regime include state guidance in a high proportion of financial and capital-intensive economic activity to facilitate national economic development, but the economy is also subject to market-imposed disciplines.

这种机制的国家的特点是，大量金融和资本密集型经济活动存在政府引导，以促进国民经济发展，但经济也受市场强制的纪律的约束。

The currency and capital account are generally subject to controls, and equity markets tend to be dominated by state-related companies and financial institutions, but private companies also have a relatively high level of autonomy.

汇率和资本账户一般受到管制，股市倾向于由与政府相关的企业和金融机构主宰，但私营企业也享有相对高度的自治。

The category included the Asian newly industrialising economies (NIEs) in their earlier development phase. Currently included are Singapore, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates.

这类国家包括处于较早发展阶段的亚洲新兴工业化经济体。目前包括新加坡、马来西亚和阿联酋。

6. Authoritarian governance regime (AGR)

6.威权治理机制(AGR)

The characteristics of countries in this regime include state dominance over the listed corporate sector, either through direct control or via a capability to intervene directly in the private sector.

这种机制的国家的特点是政府主宰上市公司部门，要么通过直接控制，要么通过直接干预私营部门的能力。

The equity market is generally relatively small relative to GDP, while listed state-controlled companies will always place social and political considerations above the interests of external shareholders. The corporations typically have very low levels of external accountability and financial transparency and high levels of moral hazard.

股市规模相对于GDP一般较小，上市的国有控股企业总是将社会和政治考量置于外部股东利益之上。这些公司的外部问责水平和金融透明度一般很低，道德风险很高。

The countries in this category include Russia, China, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Argentina, Venezuela, Iran and Kazakhstan.

这类国家包括俄罗斯、中国、越南、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、阿根廷、委内瑞拉、伊朗和哈萨克斯坦。

Governance regimes do not constitute investable asset classes, but are a framework for country-based investment analysis. Of course, we recognise that most regimes are hybrids, often of more than two regimes, but these categories make a better starting point for further analysis than the existing division between emerging and developed.

治理机制并不构成可投资的资产类别，而是一个基于国家的投资分析框架。当然，我们承认，多数机制是混合型的，经常包括两种以上的机制，但与现有的新兴市场与发达市场的区别相比，这些分类对于深入分析是个更好的起点。