美大选主题:你比四年前过得更好吗?大纲

Are you better off than you were four years ago? Ronald Reagan's famous question to voters in his 1980 campaign now looms over the 2012 presidential election.
你比四年前过得更好吗？里根（Ronald Reagan）在1980年总统竞选中向选民所提的这个问题现在开始笼罩2012年总统大选。

Barack Obama took office in January 2009-as credit markets stalled, stocks plunged and unemployment shot higher. Nearly four years later, many Americans have escaped the worst effects of the crisis. But they have made little progress beyond that, according to several measures of the U.S. economy.
奥巴马（Barack Obama）于2009年1月就任，当时随着信贷市场停滞，股票暴跌，失业率飙升。近四年后，许多美国人逃过了那次危机带来的最坏影响。但从美国经济的多个衡量指标来看，这些人除此之外并未取得多大进步。

The November vote is likely to turn on whether more Americans credit President Obama for averting financial catastrophe-a main assertion of his campaign-or blame him for a disappointingly weak recovery, the central message of Republican rival Mitt Romney.
今年11月的大选可能会取决于，认为奥巴马总统对阻止金融灾难有贡献（这是其一大竞选主张）的美国人多，还是认为他对令人失望的微弱复苏有责任（这是共和党总统候选人对手罗姆尼（Mitt Romney）向选民传递的一个核心信息）的人多。

Working-class Allentown and the surrounding area in the rolling hills of northeastern Pennsylvania reflect in many ways the overall U.S. economic experience and mood. Residents here have bounced back from some setbacks but are working harder to stay afloat.
在宾夕法尼亚州东北部连绵起伏的丘陵地带，以工人阶级为主的城市艾伦顿（Allentown）及其周边区域在一定程度上反映了美国整体的经济历程及民众的心态。这里的居民已经从某些挫折中反弹过来，但依然在加倍努力维持下去。

Jim Kelchner, 63 years old, lost his job when the housing bust triggered the closing of the lumber yard he managed. He collected unemployment insurance in 2009 for a few months. In 2010, he landed two part-time jobs: one as a maintenance man at a Lowe's store, the other working in the warehouse of Coca-Cola Park, home to the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, a triple-A minor league baseball team.
63岁的凯尔科纳（Jim Kelchner）管理着一座木料场，房地产泡沫破灭时，他丢了工作。2009年，他拿了几个月的失业保险。2010年，他找到了两份兼职：一份是在一家Lowe's商店做维修员，另一份是在可口可乐公园球场（Coca-Cola Park）的仓库工作。该球场是棒球小联盟3A球队Lehigh Valley IronPigs的主场。

Mr. Kelchner earns what he made in 2009, about $750 a week, but he has to work 75 hours-much more than before. 'I don't get to see my wife as often,' he said. The struggle, he added, has been 'just to get back to where I was.' He has voted for Democrats in the past but said he wasn't sure how he would vote in November.
凯尔科纳赚到了和2009年差不多的薪水，大约每周750美元，但每周得工作75小时，时间比以前多得多。他说，“我没法和以前一样经常见到我的妻子了。”他说自己一直如此奋力挣扎“也仅仅是跟原先差不多的状况”。他以前给民主党投票，但他说还不确定今年11月会投给谁。

Mr. Obama says he inherited a sick economy from Republicans that will take more time to heal. Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, says Mr. Obama made matters worse, and that he can better address the economy's problems.
奥巴马说，他从共和党人那里接手了处于萧条状态、需要更多时间恢复的经济。而马萨诸塞州前州长罗姆尼说，奥巴马让事态变得更糟了，而且说自己能更好地解决美国经济的问题。

Voters appear split over whom to believe. In the six Wall Street Journal/NBC News national polls dating back to January, Mr. Obama's handling of the economy has never won approving reviews from more than 45% of respondents, while between half and 53% have said they disapproved. The economy and jobs dwarf all other issues, according to the polls, yet Mr. Obama maintains a small lead over Mr. Romney.
在究竟该相信谁的问题上，选民似乎分成了两个阵营。在《华尔街日报》和美国全国广播公司（NBC）早在1月份所做的六项全国民调中，奥巴马对经济的处理手段均未获得超过45%受调查者的认可，表示不认可的人的比例在半数到53%之间。从这些调查来看，经济和就业是最突出的问题，但奥巴马目前依然以微弱优势领先罗姆尼。

The unemployment rate, at 8.3%, is higher under Mr. Obama than it has been for any president seeking re-election since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. On its face, that bodes poorly for Mr. Obama. But considering how high it was when he took office, at 7.8%, the figure is a more nuanced indicator.
奥巴马时期的失业率为8.3%，比罗斯福（Franklin Delano Roosevelt）以来寻求连任的任何一位总统在任时的失业率都高。表面来看这似乎对奥巴马不利。但考虑到他就任时高达7.8%的失业率，这个数字就是一个更微妙的指标了。

That is because the jobless rate rose more sharply, although from lower levels, during the first terms of some re-elected presidents. Since Mr. Obama's inauguration in January 2009, it has risen half a percentage point. During George W. Bush's first 42 months in office, it rose 1.3 percentage points, from 4.2% to 5.5%; and during Richard Nixon's first term it rose more than two points, from 3.4% to 5.6%.
这是因为在某些连任总统的首任任期中，失业率增长得更剧烈，尽管本来水平就比较低。自奥巴马2009年1月就任以来，失业率增长了0.5个百分点。小布什（George W. Bush）上任后的42个月中，失业率从4.2%升至5.5%，涨了1.3个百分点；在尼克松（Richard Nixon）的第一个任期期间，失业率的涨幅超过了两个点，从3.4%升至5.6%。

Presidents George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter saw rising unemployment during what turned out to be their last year in office, and they weren't re-elected. Under Mr. Obama, the rate has stagnated in 2012-a more favorable trend than the defeated presidents' showing.
在老布什（George H.W. Bush）和卡特（Jimmy Carter）的任期内，有一段时间失业率飙升，而这正好是他们任期的最后一年，最终他们没有连任。奥巴马任期内，失业率在2012年没有波动，与上述两位未能连任的总统相比，这是个更有利的趋势。

With the U.S. economy still balanced on a knife's edge between improvement and decline, movements one way or another in coming weeks could affect voter views more than usual. Growth in the second quarter of the year slowed to 1.5%, the government reported last month, too little to bring down unemployment.
美国经济会好转还是衰退，这还很难说，但无论如何，未来几周的动作都会异乎寻常地影响选民的看法。政府上个月公布，今年第二季度的增长减缓至1.5%，不足以拉低失业率。

Signs of an incomplete recovery abound. Companies are leaner and more efficient, but wary of investing or hiring. Consumers have reduced debts substantially, setting the stage for better times, but remain worried about stagnant income and unemployment.
复苏不彻底的迹象比比皆是。各公司规模更精简更有效率，但在投资和招人问题上谨小慎微。消费者大幅削减债务，努力为更好的光景打基础，但却依然担心收入停滞和失业。

'The greatest question for Mr. Obama is whether he can overcome disappointment with the way he handled the economy,' said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center. The prior state of the economy is of scant importance to voters, he said: 'What he inherited and what he prevented doesn't have the same weight as the judgments people make about what they see now.'
皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）负责人科胡特（Andrew Kohut）说，“对奥巴马来说，最大的问题在于他是否能战胜人们对他处理经济的方式的失望情绪。”他说，美国经济之前的状况对选民并不重要，“他所接手的以及他所阻止的，与人们对他们现在所看到的东西做出的判断并不具有同样的分量。”

One metric looms ominously over Mr. Obama's re-election effort: real disposable income. A measure of income after inflation and taxes, real disposable income per person has fallen 0.3% during Mr. Obama's tenure. That compares poorly with presidents who successfully sought second terms and those who lost. The figure rose 10.2% under Mr. Nixon, 10% under Mr. Reagan, 5.2% under Mr. Clinton and 7.2% under George W. Bush. Stacked against Mr. Obama's record, this pocketbook measure looked brighter even under Mr. Carter (up 5%), and George H.W. Bush (up 3%)-both of whom lost their re-election bids.
有一个指标不祥地笼罩在奥巴马的连任事业上：实际可支配收入。作为一种经通胀调整的税后收入的衡量指标，人均实际可支配收入在奥巴马任期内下降了0.3%。这与成功寻求连任以及连任失败的那些总统相比都不太妙。尼克松任期内该数据增长了10.2%，里根、克林顿和小布什任期内分别增长了10%、5.2%和7.2%。由于有奥巴马垫底，在卡特和老布什任期内，这个衡量人们收入的指标的表现也还算不错（增幅分别为5%和3%）──两人竞选连任均以失败告终。

People here in Allentown are adjusting to the harsh realities. The local T-Mobile USA Inc. call center has closed, laying off hundreds of workers. Area food banks served 42,824 meals to needy families in March, up 33% from three years earlier.
在艾伦顿，这里的人们正在适应严酷的现实。当地的T-Mobile公司呼叫中心已经关闭，解雇了数百名员工。食物银行（food bank）3月份向贫困家庭供应了42,824顿饭，较三年前增加了33%。City officials have struggled to revive the downtown after a flight to the suburbs by business and middle-income households. Municipal hiring is frozen.
公司和中等收入家庭纷纷逃往城郊后，市政府艰难地试图振兴市中心。市政府的招聘处于冻结状态。

Yet IronPig fans continue to pack the baseball stadium on game nights, and, in other signs of economic rebound, the city's planning commission is reviewing more building applications than a few years ago.
不过IronPig球迷依然会在球赛之夜挤满棒球场，而且还有一个经济反弹的迹象是，市规划委员会在审查的建筑设施比几年前要多。

Mayor Ed Pawlowski, an Obama supporter, said he was frustrated by how uncertainty has held back growth and hiring even as he sees signs the economy is thawing. 'You look at the global situation, and there's definitely storm clouds out there, but that doesn't mean there are storm clouds coming our way,' he said. 'We can't spend all our time staring at the sky.'
支持奥巴马的市长帕洛斯基（Ed Pawlowski）说，在他看到经济回暖的迹象时，不明朗的状态抑制了增长和招聘，这让他很苦恼。他说，“从全球形势来看，肯定是乌云密布，但并不意味着乌云正向我们袭来；我们不能把所有时间都花在盯着天空看。”

Thomas Ritter, 43, is a licensed plumber who had flourished in a family business with his father in the 2000s, equipping new homes with pipes, sinks, tubs and toilets. Business started fading in 2008. By 2009, it all but disappeared. Mr. Ritter, a father of four, started missing mortgage payments.
43岁的瑞特尔（Thomas Ritter）是一名持证水管工，他与父亲合作的家庭生意在2000年代发展得很不错，专门为新居安装水管、水槽、浴盆和马桶。生意从2008年开始下滑，到2009年差不多就彻底没有了。身为四个孩子父亲的瑞特尔开始还不起抵押贷款了。

'It got scary there,' he said. 'I had a decision at the end of the month: Am I going to send a check to Blue Cross or am I going to pay the mortgage?'
他说，“形势变得很可怕；月底我得做一个决定：我是要给蓝十字保险公司（Blue Cross）寄一张支票呢，还是还房贷？”

In 2009, he started driving a school bus and delivering firetrucks for a local manufacturer to cities across the U.S.
2009年，他开始当校车司机并为一家当地制造商向美国各城市运送消防车。

Last year, he got a job helping anchor Mack truck cabs to vehicles on the production line. Mr. Ritter is still cutting back: less vacation time at the beach, fewer meals out. But he said he was no doubt better off than four years ago because his manufacturing job gives him more security.
去年，他在麦克卡车公司（Mack Trucks Inc.）找到一份工作，在生产线上为卡车装配驾驶室。瑞特尔现在依然在削减开支：沙滩度假少了，外出就餐也少了。但他说自己绝对比四年前过得更好，因为这份在制造公司的工作给了他更多的安全感。

'When a bill collector calls, I can say, 'I'm going to pay you on the 15th,' ' he said.
他说，“收账员打来电话的时候，我能说‘我会在15号付款’了。”

Trends in employment, income and home prices in and around Allentown have been similar to national averages, according to Moody's Analytics, a research firm.
据穆迪研究公司（Moody's Analytics）称，艾伦顿及其周边地区就业、收入和房价的趋势与全国平均水平相似。

Allentown's unemployment rate was 8.7%, not seasonally adjusted, in June after nearing 10% during the crisis. Overall U.S. employment, at 133.2 million jobs in July, is a shade below the 133.6 million level of January 2009 and up from the low of 129.2 million in February 2010.
经济危机期间，艾伦顿的失业率达到近10%，今年6月份未经季节性调整的失业率为8.7%。全美7月份的就业岗位为1.332亿，略低于2009年1月份的1.336亿，高于2010年2月的低值1.292亿。

U.S. household wealth is up strongly since Mr. Obama took office, thanks in large measure to a stock market rebound. Total U.S. household net worth rose to $62.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2012 from $53.6 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2008. However, that is still down from more than $67 trillion in 2007, before the crisis.
美国家庭财富自奥巴马上任以来取得强劲增长，这在很大程度归功于股市的反弹。2012年第一季度，美国家庭财富净值总额从2008年第四季度的53.6万亿美元增至62.9万亿美元，不过依然低于危机前2007年的67万多亿美元。

The stock market recovery, of course, primarily benefited people with equities. The value of U.S. household wealth in real estate has failed to recover after collapsing before Mr. Obama's inauguration. It was $6.7 trillion in the first quarter of this year, below its late 2008 level and down from a high of $13.9 trillion in the second quarter of 2006.
当然，股市复苏主要使有股票的人得到了好处。奥巴马就任前，美国房产领域的家庭财富价值崩溃，后来没能恢复。今年第一季度为6.7万亿美元，低于2008年末的水平，远不如2006年第二季度13.9万亿美元的高值。

Local manufacturing is re-emerging as a bright spot. The one-million-square-foot Mack Truck factory, which employs Mr. Ritter, recently added a second shift of 300 workers to keep up with demand for the big vehicles that bear its bulldog logo. Mack Trucks Inc. is a unit of the Volvo Group.
本地制造业正逐渐东山再起，成为热门。雇佣瑞特尔的面积100万平方平尺的麦克卡车工厂最近新增了300名倒班工人，以维持对印有其斗牛犬品牌标识的大卡车的需求。麦克卡车公司是沃尔沃集团（Volvo Group）的子公司。

In Nazareth, Pa., 15 miles northeast of Allentown, Rory Glass inlays ornamental designs and runs laser machinery to shape acoustic guitars at the factory of C.F. Martin & Co., which has made renowned acoustic instruments for more than 100 years. Its customers have included the Beatles, Johnny Cash, Eric Clapton and Elvis Presley.
在艾伦顿东北方向15英里的宾州纳泽瑞斯（Nazareth），格拉斯（Rory Glass）在马丁吉他公司（C.F. Martin & Co.）的工厂镶嵌装饰性设计并运行一台制造原声吉他的激光设备。马丁公司制作知名乐器的历史已超过100年，其客户包括披头士（the Beatles）、约翰尼•卡什（Johnny Cash）、埃里克•克莱普顿（Eric Clapton）以及猫王埃尔维斯•普莱斯利（Elvis Presley）。

Mr. Glass said he is better off now than a year ago, when he was working in a garden center watering plants and living with his parents. Last year, he applied for the job at Martin, which has been on a hiring binge after seeing demand surge for its high-end guitars among affluent Americans, as well as players and collectors abroad.
格拉斯说，他现在过得比一年前要好，那时他在一个园艺中心负责给植物浇水，和父母住在一起。去年，他应聘了马丁公司的工作。由于有钱的美国人、国外演奏者及收藏家对其高端吉他的需求激增，马丁公司一直在大举招人。

The 29-year-old pony-tailed musician lives with his girlfriend, hopes for a promotion and is saving to buy a house with his $15-an-hour job. 'The economy can't be doing that bad if people are buying $60,000 guitars,' said Mr. Glass, who is still undecided about the presidential candidates.
这位现年29岁、扎着马尾辫的音乐家和他的女友住在一起，他希望能获得升职，现在他正在存钱买房子，目前他的时薪是15美元。格拉斯说，“如果有人在买六万美元的吉他，那经济状况肯定不会那么差。”格拉斯对投票给哪位总统候选人依然犹豫不决。

Martin last year sold a record $100 million in guitars and other acoustic instruments, with 40% of sales going overseas, with high demand in Japan and Europe. Sales in 2009 had fallen to $86 million.
马丁公司创立于1833年，一直由马丁家族掌管。去年，马丁公司的吉他及其他乐器销售额为一亿美元，创下了历史最高纪录，其中40%来自海外销售，日本和欧洲的需求很大。2009年其销售额曾跌至8,600万美元。

Chris Martin, the chief executive, whose family has run the company since 1833, expects $115 million in sales this year. But his concerns mirror the hand-wringing everywhere.
公司首席执行长马丁（Chris Martin）预计今年销售额将达到1.15亿美元。但他的一些担忧也反映了无处不在的绝望情绪。

'I am honestly right now worried that there could be a triggering event to cause a lot more people in Europe to say, 'I don't feel comfortable buying a luxury good right now,' ' he said. 'And let's face it, that is what a Martin guitar is.'
他说，“现在我真的很担心会出现一个事件导致欧洲很多人说‘现在我不想买奢侈品’，实话实说吧，马丁吉他就是奢侈品。”

Some people who say they feel better off now compared with four years ago explain that it isn't because they are making much more money but because they have put their finances in order.
有人说他们觉得现在比四年前过得好，他们解释说不是因为赚的钱更多了，而是因为自己的财务状况变得井然有序了。

Since Mr. Obama was elected, U.S. households have paid off-or defaulted-on $746 billion of debt, an unprecedented reduction in the modern era, Federal Reserve data show. With low interest rates and lower debt loads, the monthly cost of servicing household debt as a share of income has fallen to its lowest level in almost two decades.
美联储（Federal Reserve）的数据显示，自奥巴马当选以来，美国家庭还清了──或者说拖欠了──7,460亿美元的债务，这是在当今时代前所未见的一个数额。由于利率较低、债务负担减轻，每月以收入的一部分支付家庭债务的成本已经跌至近二十年来的最低水平。

The new frugality isn't always easy. Jesse Simpson, 27, works three jobs, including one as a delivery man for a local beer distributor and another in the warehouse at Coca-Cola Park. In 2007, he enrolled in a Los Angeles film school and owes more than $70,000 in student loans and other debt.
新节俭时代的生活并不容易。27岁的辛普森（Jesse Simpson）打了三份工，其中一份是为当地一家啤酒经销商做送货员，另一份是在可口可乐公园球场（Coca-Cola Park）的仓库工作。2007年，他上了洛杉矶的一家电影学校，欠下了七万多美元的学生贷款和其他债务。

'Four years ago, I was moving back home with no money, a maxed-out credit card and no job,' he said. Now he is working, cutting out unnecessary spending and paying down debt.
他说，“四年前我搬回家的时候，没钱、信用卡透支，也没有工作。”现在他在工作，削减了不必要的开支并偿还债务。

'I'm definitely doing better,' he said. With a deep breath, he added, 'I can honestly say I'm exhausted and running myself ragged.' He said he voted for Mr. Obama in 2008, and may again, but is so far undecided.
他说，“现在我肯定过得更好了。”接着他深吸了一口气说道，“老实说我特别累，精疲力尽。”他说他2008年投票给了奥巴马，这次可能也会选他，但目前还没有最终决定。

Mr. Obama's signature economic program, the $825 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, was a combination of tax breaks and spending programs aimed at arresting the economy's deep contraction in early 2009 and stimulating growth. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated the act created between 500,000 and 3.3 million jobs─far less than the 8.7 million jobs lost during the downturn.
奥巴马的标志性经济计划──8,250亿美元的《美国复苏与再投资法案》（American Recovery and Reinvestment Act）──是减税和开支计划的结合，旨在阻止美国经济重蹈2009年初严重萎缩的覆辙并刺激增长。无党派机构国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）估计该法案创造了50万至330万个就业岗位，远少于衰退时期损失的870万。

The recovery has left behind a legion of unemployed, including Roy Bastian, a chemist near 50 who lost his job in early 2008 as a researcher conducting gas-and-chemical experiments at Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.
大量的失业者在这场复苏中依然找不到工作，包括快50岁的化学师巴斯蒂安（Roy Bastian），他曾在空气化工产品公司（Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.）担任研究员，负责气体化学实验，后来在2008年初失业。

Mr. Bastian, who drives a rusted Dodge Neon, said he has applied for jobs but with no luck. But, he said, more jobs seem to be opening up now than a year ago.
巴斯蒂安开的是一辆锈迹斑斑的道奇霓虹（Dodge Neon）。他说，他找过工作，但运气不好。不过他说，现在开放的招聘岗位似乎比一年前多了。

'Am I better off? No,' he said, 'Do I expect to be better off? Yes, very soon. My own fear is that everything is going to stall. People will say, 'We can hire someone after November, after we know what's going to happen going forward.' '
他说，“我的生活更好了吗？没有。我会过得更好吗？是的，很快就会。我的担心是一切都会停滞。人们会说，‘在11月以后、在我们知道将来会是什么情况以后，我们才会招人。’”