10个简单却无解的世界迷题(中)

own Species

7.未知物种

In 1972, biologist Jennifer Owen began to document the species that she found roaming around her suburban garden. By the time 40 years had elapsed, she'd noted over 8,000 species, 20 of which had never before been seen in England.

1972年，生物学家詹妮弗·欧文开始记录在她城郊花园里出现过的动植物。40年以后，她总共记录了8000种动植物，其中20种以前从没有在英格兰出现过。

Of those 20, four were completely new to science. Without leaving her home, Owen had accidentally documented four entirely new species.

其中4种在科学上的历史还是一片空白。欧文没有离开过家，却意外记录了4种新物种。

This little anecdote demonstrates how little we really know about the species we share our planet with. There's such a mind-bogglingly large number of creatures out there that people are stumbling over completely new ones all the time, often in the most unlikely of places.

这件轶闻趣事表明我们其实对地球上与我们共同生存的物种知之不多。人们在不经意间发现新生物，其数量之多超出我们意料，往往发现的地方也难以想象。

Incredible as Owen's finds were, they're not even the most improbable. Dave Ebert in Taiwan has found 24 new species of shark just by browsing his local fish market.

欧文的发现让人难以置信，但还不是最匪夷所思的。戴夫·艾伯特通过逛台湾的鱼市，发现了24种新鲨鱼。

In London, a mycologist identified three new varieties of Boletus fungi in a pack of dried porcini.

一位研究霉菌的学者在伦敦一堆干瘪的牛肝菌中找到了3种牛肝菌的变体。

By one 2011 estimate, the number of undocumented species on Earth stands at 7.5 million.

2011年一项估算认为，地球上未被记录的物种总数约为750万。

At the time that estimate was made, we'd only cataloged 1.2 million. That means that up to 90 percent of marine species and 86 percent of land species could be utterly unknown to science.

当时我们已经知道的物种只有120万。这意味着多达90%的海洋生物和86%的陆地生物可能还徘徊在科学界之外。

Endangered Many Species Are

6.物种濒危程度

We've driven so many species to the brink of extinction that you can probably name a handful off the top of your head. The Sumatran rhino, Hainan gibbon, Javan rhino, and others all frequently appear on charity appeals.

人类已经把很多动物逼到了濒临灭绝的边缘，你稍微想一想就能说出生存危机最为严重的那几种。双脚犀牛、海南长臂猿、爪洼犀牛，还有其他经常出现在慈善机构诉求里面的动物。

But those are just the animals that we know are endangered. There are thousands—if not millions—more for which we have no idea if they're alive and healthy, alive and endangered, or just plain old dead.

但这些都只是我们确定处境濒危的动物，还有成千上万甚至更多的动植物我们并不清楚它们是否还存在、是否健康、有没有生存威胁，还是会自然老死。

Part of the problem is lack of resources. The International Union for Conservation of Nature has the world's most comprehensive database on endangered animals.

这个问题缺乏支撑。世界自然保护联盟拥有世界上有关濒危动物最完善的数据库。

Yet by 2013, they'd only assessed the status of 71,576 species globally. Even among the 1.2 million species we know about, that's a tiny, tiny fraction.

到2013年，他们只评估了71576种生物的生存状态。即使在我们已知的120万种生物当中，这也只是很少很少的一部分。

Expand it to include the 7.5 million potentially undiscovered ones, and it's clear that we have no idea what condition most species are in.

还有750万种没被我们发现的物种等着接受评估，由此可见，我们不知道大部分物种的生存状态。

Another issue is finding the animals in the first place. It's currently thought that as many as seven Oahu alauahios may still exist in Hawaii, yet no one has seen one since 1985.

首要问题是找到这些物种。目前，夏威夷可能还有7只瓦胡岛管舌雀，尽管1985年之后没人再看见过它们。

They could be extinct, or they could eventually reappear like that Israeli frog that everyone assumed had died out. Where species are concerned, we basically have no idea how most of them are doing.

这些鸟儿可能已经灭绝了，也可能有一日重新出现，就像人们都以为以色列蛙已经灭绝。对于物种，我们连大部分的基本生存状态都不清楚。

h City Is Growing The Fastest

5.哪座城市发展最快

Even if we can't understand the animal world, we tend to assume that we have a handle on ours. This simply isn't true. Densely populated urban areas are so complex and confusing that we can't even say what the world's fastest-growing city is.

虽然连动物的世界都没有弄明白，我们却认为对自己的世界了如指掌。当然不是这样的。人口密集的城市地区很复杂，我们甚至说不出世界上发展最快的城市是哪一座。

This might seem like one of those problems akin to wondering how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, but knowing which cities are undergoing the most rapid population changes can help us predict where the next economic powerhouse might emerge and adjust our own policies accordingly.

这个问题很难，类似于在问有多个天使在针尖上跳舞一样。知道哪座城市人口数量变化最快也许能帮助我们预测下一个经济动力中心出现的地方，并启发我们相应地调整自己的政策。

The only trouble is that there are multiple ways of measuring a city's growth rate, and none of them return the same answer.

唯一麻烦的是衡量城市发展的方式很多，而且得出的答案都不一样。

By one count, Batam, Indonesia, is leading the charge, with annual growth of 7.4 percent. By another, the fastest-growing city is Niamey in Niger.

有统计表明，印度尼西亚巴淡岛位于这项变化的前沿，每年增长速度达到7.4%。另一项统计表明，发展最快的城市是尼日尔的尼亚美。

By yet another, it's Xiamen, China. A city that tops one ranking may not even feature in the top 10 of another.

还有统计得出的结论是厦门。一项统计的冠军城市可能排在另一项统计的前十位之外。

Geographic growth is hard to measure, too, for reasons similar to those causing the trouble with maps we mentioned earlier. Growth is often so fast that by the time we've accurately measured one city, all our data is out of date.

城市地域范围的增加也很难测量，原因类似于上文导致地图没有标记部分地区的问题。发展很快，我们比较精确地测完一座城市得出的数据已经过时了。

In short, predicting the location of the Earth's next megacities is harder than it looks.

简言之，预测下一批大城市崛起的地方没那么容易。

h Country Is Happiest

4.哪个国家最幸福

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crash, many began to look for better methods of measuring a country's well-being than GDP. Enter the National Happiness Index, which has been brought in by governments everywhere from Thailand to the UK.

2008年经融危机之后，很多人开始寻找比GDP更有效的方式来评价一个国家的富庶程度。国民幸福指数出现在大家面前——从泰国到英国等各地政府都开始使用这一指标。

In theory, it's a great idea; human life is about far more than just contributing to the economy. In practice, however, the measurements are often wildly contradictory.

理论上这个想法很棒；人们的生活远不止对经济的贡献。但实际上，测量结果常常让人大跌眼镜。

You may have heard of Bhutan. A tiny mountain kingdom nestled at the top of India, Bhutan is dirt poor and largely inaccessible to tourists.

你可能听说过不丹，一个位于印度北边的多山小国，不仅极其贫困，而且游客很难进去。

It's also famous as being one of the happiest places on Earth, a claim which has led to an onslaught of magazine articles explaining why its low-carbon, no-smoking, Earth-loving society should be replicated elsewhere.

而这里却以“世界上最幸福的地方”而闻名，这个称号还催生了一大批杂志文章，阐述为什么不丹低碳、禁烟、热爱环境的社会模式应该复制到其他地方。

In short, Bhutan could be extremely happy, or it could be utterly miserable. We simply don't know. Other countries are difficult to measure, too.

总而言之，不丹人要么极其幸福，要么极其痛苦。我们并不清楚。其他国家也很难衡量。

Some metrics place Latin America as the pinnacle of happiness. Others say the honor goes to Northern Europe. It seems happiness is just too nebulous to measure on a global scale.

有一些统计将拉美推上了幸福之巅。其他人则认为这一荣誉属于北欧。要衡量全球范围的幸福程度，“幸福”似乎变得模糊了。