解析英国女王的投资组合 Short view on Queen's Investment

If anyone can afford to take the long view on investment, it’s surely the British monarch. Queen Elizabeth II on Wednesday passes Queen Victoria as the longest-reigning British head of state, after 63 years on the throne.

要说有谁有条件着眼于长线投资的话，那肯定是英国君主了。周三，英国女王伊丽莎白二世(Queen Elizabeth II)超越维多利亚女王(Queen Victoria)，成为在位时间最长的英国国家元首，已在位63年。

She has seen 13 prime ministers, 12 US presidents and the invention of modern portfolio theory. Her predilection for horseracing is well known. But how’s her investment strategy? She has little choice in asset allocation. The castles, the crowns, the 3,000-carat Cullinan diamond and much else are held in trust, and cannot be rebalanced into equities. Valuation is tough, too, with 17th century royal headwear even less liquid than junk bond ETFs.

她见证了13位英国首相、12位美国总统以及现代投资组合理论的诞生。她对赛马的嗜好众所周知。但是，她的投资策略是什么？在资产配置上，她没有多少选择余地。城堡、皇冠、那枚3000克拉的“库利南”（Cullinan）钻石以及其他很多资产都由信托机构持有，无法调整为股票投资。估值也很困难，那顶17世纪的王室皇冠的流动性甚至还不如投资垃圾债券的交易所交易基金(ETF)。

Still, the portfolio has a useful bias towards inflation protection, and assets that appeal to the burgeoning super-rich. There is no index of crown jewels, but the sterling gold price has more than doubled in real terms. Diamonds have turned out to be less flashy, lagging inflation.

不过，该投资组合存在抵挡通胀的有用偏好，且其中包含着吸引新兴超级富豪阶层的资产。没有关于皇冠宝石的指数，但是，实际金价（以英镑计）已经增长超过一倍。钻石的表现反倒没那么亮眼，跑输通胀。

The real jewel in the crown may be the Koh-i-Noor, but the shining light of the Queen’s portfolio is the royal art collection.

虽然真正的“皇冠上的宝石”是那枚光之山钻石(Koh-I-Noor)，但是女王的投资组合中最耀眼的宝贝是皇家收藏的艺术品。

Art has been one of the better performing assets of the past century, making 3 per cent a year above inflation, well ahead of bonds. According to Christophe Spaenjers, a finance professor at HEC Paris, the price of art at London sales has risen more than 500-fold in nominal terms since 1952, or 20-fold after inflation. Gilts rose five times after inflation, assuming coupons were reinvested.

在过去的一个世纪中，艺术品是表现较好的资产之一，剔除通胀每年收益3%，远高于债券。据巴黎高等商学院(HEC Paris)的金融学教授克里斯托夫斯帕杰尔斯(Christophe Spaenjers)表示，自1952年以来，伦敦售出的艺术品的名义价格已经是当初的逾500倍，剔除通胀后的实际价格是当初的逾20倍。同期英国国债剔除通胀后上涨4倍（假设票息被重新投资于英国国债）。

Land has done well too. In this case an Englishwoman’s home really is her castle, but the Queen’s bias towards central London luxury housing (Buckingham Palace) has been a clear source of outperformance recently.

土地投资收益也不错。常言道，一个英国女人的家就是她的城堡，而女王的家真的是就是城堡。不过女王对伦敦市中心奢侈住宅——白金汉宫(Buckingham Palace)——的偏爱，近来对她的不凡投资收益有突出贡献。

British housing has been a very good investment. The price of older houses matched the capital value of shares (not including dividends), rising 127-fold. Property is expensive to manage and much harder to trade than shares, though, and net rental yields, while not reliably measured, have probably been lower than dividends.

英国住宅一直是一项非常好的投资。较老住宅的价格上涨不输于股票市值（不包括股息），上涨了126倍。不过，房地产的管理成本昂贵，而且远比股票难以变现，净房租收益率（尽管衡量方法并不可靠）很可能一直低于股息。

Overall, the portfolio is far too concentrated in the UK. Britannia no longer rules the waves, and even the most patriotic investors have long since recognised that diversifying risk means holding foreign assets, too — even if these days royals cannot just send in troops to seize them.

总的来说，女王的投资组合太过集中于英国。大不列颠已经不再统治海洋，即便是最爱国的投资者，也早已意识到，只有持有一些境外资产才能分散风险——虽然如今英国王室可以派遣军队没收民众资产的日子已一去不返。