中国对非洲投资锐减 Chinese investment in Africa plunges 84%

China’s investment into Africa appears to be another casualty of the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese cross-border investment in greenfield projects and in expansion of existing projects in Africa fell by 84 per cent in the first half of this year compared with a year earlier, from $3.54bn to $568m.

中国对非洲的投资似乎成了世界第二大经济体增长放缓的又一牺牲品。今年上半年，中国在非洲绿地项目及现有项目扩建上的跨境投资与去年同期相比减少了84%，从35.4亿美元降至5.68亿美元。

With less money being spent on the big projects that dominated investment in the first half of 2014, Chinese investment has refocused on its original interest in the continent: raw materials.

随着在大型项目上的投资减少（这类项目是2014年上半年中国对非投资的主要形式），中国投资已重新聚焦于对非洲大陆的原始兴趣：原材料。

Even as its total investments fell back sharply in the first half of 2015, investment into extractive industries nearly doubled. Chinese spending on projects in oil, gas, coal, mining and metals rose from $141.4m to $288.9m over the period.

虽然中国对非洲总投资在2015年上半年大幅回落，但对采掘业的投资几乎翻了一番。期内，中国在非洲石油、天然气、煤炭、矿业及金属项目上的投资从去年同期的1.414亿美元增至2.889亿美元。

Seen in the context of the past decade, this year’s level of Chinese FDI is more a return to form than a reversal of a rising trend. It peaked at $11.7bn in 2008, before the global financial crisis, only to fall back to an average of $1.5bn a year over the following five years. Last year’s fresh surge in investment has not been maintained.

放在过去10年的时间跨度来看，中国今年对非洲的直接投资水平(FDI)与其说是上升趋势出现了逆转，不如说是恢复原样。中国对非投资在2008年即全球金融危机爆发前达到了117亿美元的峰值，而在随后5年间回落至年均15亿美元。去年新显现的投资激增势头并未维持下去。

China’s relationship with African states has been a pivotal — and often controversial — component of the region’s growth story over the past decade.

过去10年，中国与非洲各国的关系一直是非洲地区增长故事的关键（同时也常引发争议的）组成部分。

Africa attracted record inward FDI flows in the full year of 2014 totalling $87bn — a 64 per cent increase from 2013 according to research by This is Africa and fDi Intelligence, two publications owned by the Financial Times.

英国《金融时报》旗下两份出版物《This is Africa》和《fDi Intelligence》的研究显示，2014年全年，非洲吸引的FDI总额达到了创纪录的870亿美元，比2013年增加了64%。

The figures from fDi Markets, an FT data service, include greenfields and expansion of existing projects but exclude other items such as intra-company loans typically included in traditional, balance of payments FDI data.

英国《金融时报》旗下数据服务fDi Markets的数据包含绿地项目及现有项目扩建，但不包括其他条目，例如通常包含在传统的国际收支FDI数据中的公司内部贷款。

However, global headwinds have complicated Africa’s growth story. Sharp falls in the price of oil and other commodities have crimped growth in economies from Angola to Zambia, which continue to rely on raw materials exports for the majority of their revenues.

然而，全球范围内的不利因素使非洲的增长故事复杂化。石油及其他大宗商品价格急剧下跌阻碍了从安哥拉到赞比亚等国家的经济增长，这些国家仍依赖原材料出口获得大部分收入。

Yet investment represents a relatively small piece of the China-Africa relationship when compared with trade. China surpassed the US to be the region’s top trade partner in 2009. Trade between China and sub-Saharan Africa was worth more than $170bn in 2013, from less than $10bn in 2002, according to the World Bank.

但与中非贸易相比，投资只代表中非关系中相对较小的一部分。2009年，中国超过美国成为非洲最大的贸易伙伴。世界银行(Word Bank)的数据显示，中国与撒哈拉以南非洲地区之间的贸易额从2002年的不到100亿美元增长到2013年的逾1700亿美元。

However, FDI is a bellwether for macro trends, and reflects shifts in global investment.

然而，FDI是宏观经济形势的风向标，反映了全球投资的变化。

“FDI has dipped across the board from emerging markets into other emerging markets, and into Africa in particular,” says Vera Songwe, the IFC’s director for West and Central Africa. Capital inflows as a share of GDP in emerging markets have fallen from a high of 8 per cent in 2007 to about 2 per cent in 2015, according to the Institute of International Finance.

世行旗下国际金融公司(IFC)西非与中非地区主管维拉縠圭(Vera Songwe)说：“新兴市场对新兴市场的FDI已经全线下滑，特别是流入非洲的部分。”国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)的数据显示，新兴市场资本流入与GDP的比例已从2007年8%的高位，降至2015年的2%左右。

Some economists have expressed concerns that a bursting Chinese real estate bubble could further reduce demand for raw materials from Africa, and with it Chinese interest in investing in the sector and more broadly in the region.

一些经济学家担心，如果中国房地产泡沫破裂，可能进一步减少对非洲原材料的需求，这样一来，中国对非洲原材料行业以及更广泛领域的投资兴趣也将随之减少。

Others are more sanguine, seeing opportunity down the line as China’s economy reorients itself. “Is China now going to relaunch internal demand, in one way or another? If this is the case, the demand at least in volume in natural resources can even increase,” says Mario Pezzini, director of the OECD’s Development Centre.

还有些人则更为乐观，他们看到了中国经济调整带来的机遇。经合组织(OECD)发展中心主任马里奥椠偏尼(Mario Pezzini)说：“中国现在会以某种方式重启内需吗？如果是这样的话，至少从量上来说，其对自然资源的需求甚至可能增加。”

Even as China’s economy looks inward, demographic trends in Africa have the potential to kick-start internal demand. Over the next 35 years, the region’s population is set to double to 2bn, while policymakers cope with the fastest rate of urbanisation in the world.

即使中国经济转变为内向型，非洲的人口趋势也有潜力来激发内需。未来35年，非洲地区的人口将翻倍至20亿，而这里的政策制定者们需要应对世界最快速的城市化进程。

Real estate development and housing will be key areas for internal growth and can absorb production previously geared towards China, according to the IFC’s Ms Songwe. “The question is now turning towards looking at internal demand, which is what China is doing as well,” she says.

国际金融公司的松圭认为，房地产开发与住房将成为非洲内部增长的关键领域，可以吸收此前为满足中国需求而建成的产能。“问题是要现在就转向着眼于内需，这也是中国正在做的，”她说。