时报首轮预测 希拉里有76%几率胜选

For now, at least, Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump to become president of the United States.

至少目前看，希拉里·克林顿有76%的几率打败唐纳德·特朗普，成为美国新一任总统。

A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw.

但特朗普依然相当可能获胜：克林顿失利的可能性与一名NBA球员罚球不进的几率相当。

This electoral probability, the first forecast by the Upshot’s presidential prediction model, is based on the voting history of each state and on roughly 300 state and national polls of the race conducted since mid-April.

这样的大选胜负几率是《纽约时报》“结语”专栏(The Upshot)的大选预测模型做出的第一轮预测，是基于各个州的投票历史，以及自4月中以来就竞选进行的约300项州和全国性民意调查得出。

Our model suggests Mrs. Clinton is a strong favorite in 15 states, enough to give her 186 of the 270 electoral votes she needs to win the White House. Add to this eight states that polls currently show are leaning Democratic — including Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania — and Mrs. Clinton would have 275 electoral votes and the presidency.

我们的模型显示，克林顿在15个州获得了着强有力的支持，足以让她拿到赢得大选所需的270张选举人票中的186张。再加上民意调查目前显示有另外八个州倾向于民主党——包括明尼苏达、密歇根和宾夕法尼亚——预计克林顿将获得275张选举人票，由此赢得总统职位。

But, with 16 weeks remaining in the campaign, a lot can change. Using the same model, we would have said that Bill Clinton had less than a 20 percent chance to win the presidency with roughly four months to go in 1992. It was only after Ross Perot left the race and the Democrats rallied around Mr. Clinton after the Democratic convention that his polls improved. And they improved sharply. One month later, he was an 84 percent favorite.

然而，考虑到距离最后的投票时间还有16周，很多情况有可能发生改变。使用同一个模型，我们本会预测，在距离1992年大选还有大约4个月时，比尔·克林顿赢得竞选的几率只有不到20%。只是在罗斯·佩罗(Ross Perot)退出竞选，民主党人在该党全国大会之后团结在克林顿周围之时，他的民意调查结果才有所改善。而且是急剧提升。一个月后，他的获胜几率达到了84%。

This kind of polling volatility should be expected, particularly with party conventions at hand. It is one reason that Mrs. Clinton’s probability of victory is not higher. Current polling averages suggest a four-point victory in the national popular vote for Mrs. Clinton, if nothing changes. But we expect changes between now and Election Day.

应该对这种民意调查的剧烈变化做好心理准备，尤其是考虑到两党的全国大会就在眼前。正因如此，克林顿的获胜几率没有更高一些。如果情况不发生任何改变，目前的民意调查显示克林顿在全国普选中有4个点的赢面。但我们料想从现在到大选日会有一些改变发生。

The Upshot is not the only news organization trying to forecast election results. We believe each model provides useful glimpses of possible futures, so we are compiling forecasts from a variety of them into one easy-to-digest table.

“结语”专栏不是唯一一个试图预测大选结果的新闻机构。我们相信每种模型都可以提供一些有关未来可能性的有用信息，所以我们在将各种预测信息汇总，编辑成一个易于理解的表格。

Viewed side by side, the differences among the models become clearer. Arizona, for example, is rated as a tossup by FiveThirtyEight, while our model has not yet seen enough polling evidence to revise its assessment of Arizona’s recent history as a Republican-leaning state. Similarly, while the betting markets rate New Mexico as almost a sure thing in the Democratic column, our model is not as certain, giving Mr. Trump a 21 percent chance to upset Mrs. Clinton there.

放在一起看，不同模型的区别变得更加一目了然。比如，亚利桑那州被博客网站FiveThirtyEight列为没有明确倾向的州，而我们的模型还没看到太多的民意调查证据，不足以修改亚利桑那在最近这些年中作为倾向共和党的州的判断。同样地，尽管博彩市场将新墨西哥州列为几乎可以肯定会支持民主党的州，我们的模型却没有如此确定，而是认为特朗普在该州有21%的几率击败克林顿。