西方为何出现围墙心态

Tear down this wAll” demanded Ronald Reagan in Berlin in 1987. “Build the wall” demands Donald Trump, the man poised to take over Reagan’s party by winning the Republican nomination for the US presidency in 2016.

1987年，美国前总统、共和党人罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)曾在柏林呼吁：“推倒这堵墙。”但有望赢得2016年共和党总统候选人提名、从而执掌该党的唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)却呼吁“修建隔离墙”。

While America is still debating Mr Trump’s demand for a “great, great wall” along its border with Mexico, Europe has already entered the wall construction business. The EU’s panic over the “migrant crisis” is leading to a multiplication of new physical barriers and checks in Europe, to block the passage of would-be refugees.

在美国内部对特朗普提出的沿美国与墨西哥边界修建“巨型隔离墙”的要求仍在争论之际，欧洲已经开始“筑墙”了。欧盟对“移民危机”的恐慌正使得新的隔离设施和检查站在欧洲成倍增加，以堵住准难民的通路。

Once again, there are some painful historical ironies. The first breaches in the Iron Curtain in the summer of 1989 came when the Hungarian government removed the electric fencing that separated its country from Austria — a decision that set off a train of events that culminated in the fall of the Berlin Wall a few months later. A quarter of a century on, Hungary has once again been a trailblazer, but this time in the opposite direction. When Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, built a razor-wire fence along his country’s frontier last summer, to deter would-be refugees, he was roundly denounced. A few months later, an Orban-style fence has just been built along the Greek-Macedonian border, and frontier controls are being tightened across Europe.

令人痛苦的历史性讽刺事件再次发生。1989年夏，匈牙利政府拆除分隔该国与奥地利的带电铁丝网，首次将“铁幕”(Iron Curtain)撕开。这一决定引发了一连串的事件，并最终在几个月后导致柏林墙(Berlin Wall)倒塌。25年后，匈牙利再次成为先驱，但这次是朝着相反的方向。当去年夏天匈牙利总理欧尔班•维克托(Viktor Orban)下令沿本国边境架起带刺铁丝网以阻止准难民流入时，他的做法受到了严厉谴责。但仅仅几个月后，一道“欧尔班式”的铁丝网围栏就沿着希腊与马其顿的边界修建起来，整个欧洲的边境管控也都在收紧。

The journey from Reagan to Trump — from tearing down walls to putting them up — says a lot about the west’s journey from confidence to fear over the past 30 years. There are many reasons for this new demand for barriers between the west and the rest. The most obvious and direct cause is the fear of mass immigration from what used to be called the “third world”. But, beyond that, there is a broader loss of faith in the west’s ability to engage successfully with the outside world.

从里根到特朗普，从推倒隔离墙到重建隔离墙，这一历程在很大程度上体现了过去30年西方社会从自信到恐惧的转变。有很多理由可以解释这种在西方与非西方之间建立屏障的新需求。最明显、最直接的原因是对来自曾被称为“第三世界”的大规模移民的恐惧。但除此之外，更深层次的原因在于，西方存在更广泛的信心缺失，怀疑自己成功与外界打交道的能力。

Even before the migrant crisis, anti-immigration parties were on the rise across Europe. They are almost certain to gain strength amid the present panic. Europe’s extreme right is already hailing the rise of Mr Trump, on the other side of the Atlantic. Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founding father of France’s National Front, recently tweeted: “If I were American, I would vote for Donald Trump — may God protect him.” Concerns about immigration from the Muslim world and terrorism have been linked in both Europe and the US — and taken to the extreme by the Trump campaign’s ugly demand for a temporary ban on all Muslims entering the US.

甚至在移民危机爆发之前，反移民政党已在欧洲各国崛起。而当下的恐慌情绪几乎肯定会让他们的实力得到增强。欧洲极右翼已经开始欢呼大西洋彼岸特朗普的崛起。法国国民阵线(National Front)创始人让-马里•勒庞(Jean-Marie Le Pen)最近在Twitter上写道：“如果我是美国人，我会投票支持唐纳德•特朗普——愿上帝保佑他。”在欧洲和美国，对来自穆斯林世界移民的担忧与对恐怖主义的担忧已经连在一起——特朗普在竞选中提出的暂时禁止所有穆斯林进入美国的可耻要求，将这种合二为一的担忧推向了极端。

Beyond the fears about mass migration, however, there is also a crumbling of some of the ideas that have underpinned western engagement with the outside world since the end of the cold war. The first principle is the promotion of a “globalised” economy through the removal of barriers to trade and investment. The second is a willingness to contemplate foreign military intervention in the world’s trouble spots.

然而，除了存在对大规模移民的担忧，一些自冷战结束以来一直维系着西方与外界交往的理念也面临崩溃。其中第一条理念是通过破除贸易和投资壁垒来促进经济“全球化”。第二条是愿意考虑对世界动荡地区进行军事干预。

These two ideas — globalisation and liberal interventionism — were indirectly linked. The best solution to poverty and instability in the non-western world was (and is) routinely said to be economic growth, through increased trade and investment. But, in the aftermath of the fall of the Berlin Wall, western powers also became more willing to contemplate military intervention to “stabilise” failed states and troubled regions that had proved impervious to the magic of globalisation — from the Balkans to Africa and Afghanistan.

这两种理念——全球化与人道干涉主义——具有间接联系。人们过去（现在也是）一直认为，解决非西方世界贫困与不稳定问题的最佳方案在于通过增加贸易和投资带动经济增长。但在柏林墙倒后，西方大国同时也变得越来越愿意考虑利用军事干预，来“稳定”全球化的魔法已被证明无法穿透的失败国家和动荡地区——从巴尔干地区、非洲到阿富汗。

After 25 years of governments running these policy experiments, however, western voters seem increasingly sceptical about both globalisation and liberal interventionism. In the aftermath of the Iraq and Afghan wars, there is very little appetite for further large-scale western military intervention in the Middle East. All the Republican candidates in the presidential race are prepared to pile into President Barack Obama for “weakness” in Syria, but none are proposing the deployment of ground troops. Similarly, while there is anguish inside the EU about the influx of refugees from Syria, there is no discussion of sending troops there to end the conflict that is driving the refugee flows.

然而，在西方各国政府进行此类政策试验25年后，西方选民对全球化与人道干涉主义两种理念的质疑似乎也愈发强烈。伊拉克、阿富汗战争结束后，西方几乎没有了在中东地区进一步实施大规模军事干预的欲望。所有共和党总统竞选人都准备抨击巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统在叙利亚问题上的“软弱”，但没有一人建议在叙利亚部署地面部队。同样，虽然叙利亚难民的涌入让欧盟各国感到头痛，但没人讨论是否应该向叙利亚派遣军队，以结束引发难民潮的内战。

New trade agreements are also going out of fashion. Four years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, President Bill Clinton signed the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada. Now Mr Trump is proposing not just to build a wall along the Mexican frontier, but to impose swingeing new tariffs on US manufacturers based in Mexico. Even Hillary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, is making protectionist noises on the campaign trail. And while political leaders in the EU claim to be in favour of negotiating a new trade deal with the US, the European left is already mobilising the public against the idea. Even Europe’s cherished internal market may now be threatened by the reimposition of frontier controls within the EU’s border-free Schengen zone.

新的贸易协定也不再受欢迎。柏林墙倒4年后，美国前总统比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)与墨西哥、加拿大签署了《北美自由贸易协定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)。如今，特朗普不仅提出要沿美墨边界修建隔离墙，还提议对在墨西哥设厂的美国制造商征收高额关税。甚至连民主党总统竞选领跑者希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)也在竞选活动中大谈贸易保护主义。虽然欧盟各国政治领导人表示，支持就缔结新的贸易协议与美国进行谈判，但欧洲左翼已开始动员公众反对这一计划。甚至连欧洲珍视的内部市场，如今可能都受到了申根免签证区内部重新实施边境管控的威胁。

Viewed from the comfort of Europe or the US, the problems of the Greater Middle East, Africa or Central America increasingly look both frightening and insoluble. If neither trade nor military intervention can succeed in creating prosperity and order, then the temptation increases to create physical barriers to keep the rest of the world at bay.

在生活惬意的欧美人看来，大中东地区、非洲或中美洲面临的问题日益令人恐惧和无法解决。如果贸易和军事干预都无法成功地带来繁荣和秩序，那么，修筑隔离设施将世界其他地区阻挡在外，对西方而言将越来越具有诱惑力。

Mainstream politicians in both the EU and the US will continue to argue that building barriers is not the solution to the problems of the world or the west. But they are in danger of finding that their voters have stopped listening.

欧美主流政客将继续声明，修筑隔离设施并非世界或西方面临问题的解决之道。但是他们恐怕会发现，选民已不再倾听他们的呼声。