西方欧盟不应主动出击 与俄罗斯为敌

The Soviet Union’s sunset years hardly felt like an innocent age to those who lived through them, but to recall the hopes and aspirations of that era is to rue the naiveties of those days. “A common European house” was how President Mikhail Gorbachev pictured the continent’s future; “a Europe whole and free”, in the words of George HW Bush, his American counterpart. But, as the tussle over Ukraine has shown, Russia and the west are rivals once again. The ceasefire signed on September 5 gives both sides a chance to overcome their own illusions. They should take it, lest the conflict become a direct military confrontation.

对曾经亲身经历过那个年代的人而言，苏联(Soviet Union)日薄西山那些年很难算“纯真年代”。但回想那个时代的希望和憧憬，我们一定会为那时的天真感到后悔。当时的俄罗斯总统米哈伊尔•戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)这样描述欧洲大陆的未来——“一个共同的欧洲大家园”，用当时的美国总统老布什(George HW Bush)的话来说则是——“一个统一而自由的欧洲”。然而，围绕乌克兰的争吵显示出，俄罗斯和西方又一次成为了对手。9月5日签订的停火协议给了双方一个克服各自幻觉的机会。他们应该抓住这个机会，以免冲突演变成直接的军事对抗。

Western leaders seem to believe their own propaganda. A failed Ukraine, they suggest, could be cradled into western Europe and become democratic and prosperous – and maybe it could, if they waited 20 years and could count on energetic support from Russia. But Moscow, they are convinced, is hell-bent on grabbing land, a hunger from which it can be distracted only through the infliction of pain. Hence the sanctions, the war of disinformation and the reinvigoration of Nato as a military force.

西方领袖似乎相信了他们自己的宣传。他们提出，一个失败的乌克兰可以被西欧抱在怀里，变得民主和富强。或许吧，如果他们能再等20年，并且能够指望俄罗斯的大力支持。但他们确信，俄罗斯政府铁了心要抢夺地盘，除非吃到苦头，否则不会收敛。因此，西方对俄罗斯实施了制裁，打起了假消息战，并努力重振北约(NATO)作为军事组织的雄风。

It is a strategy that rests on misunderstanding and miscalculation. The misunderstanding is that this is, at root, a stand-off over Ukraine. To Russians, it is something far more important: a struggle to stop others expanding their sphere of control into territories they believe are vital to Russia’s survival.

西方的这种战略是基于误解和误判。误解是这个问题在本质上是围绕乌克兰的对峙。对俄罗斯而言，这是个重要得多的问题：这是一场斗争，目的是阻止其他人将势力范围扩大到在俄罗斯看来对其生存至关重要的地盘。

It is a miscalculation because Russia is far stronger, and the west far weaker, than many imagine. The west that Russia now faces is not the self-confident alliance that proclaimed itself victor of the cold war. It is a directionless gaggle, beset with economic insecurities and losing sight of its moral convictions. America and its allies once held the future in their hands, but at the beginning of this Asian century they have let it slip through their fingers. Their crowning accomplishment was globalisation – and they are destroying it, with economic sanctions they incoherently describe as instruments of self-defence.

之所以说西方误判，是因为与许多人的想象相比，俄罗斯要强大得多，而西方要弱小得多。俄罗斯如今面对的“西方”，已不再是宣告自己打赢了冷战的那个自信的联盟。如今的西方如一群迷途的羔羊，被经济方面的不安全感所困扰，而且忘记了自己的道德准绳。美国及其盟友一度掌握未来，但在这个“亚洲世纪”拉开帷幕之际，他们让未来从指缝间溜走了。他们的最高成就是全球化，而经济制裁正在葬送这项成就——他们无法自圆其说地称制裁是自卫工具。

These sanctions will hurt ordinary Russians, but they are helping to rouse our country from its slumber. True, Russia is smaller than the Soviet Union was, and a romantic belief in the free market has led it to take some wrong turns. The country’s elite, enjoying the consumerist pleasures afforded by new wealth, had long been at rest. But President Vladimir Putin harbours no illusions about the west. Russian citizens, unlike the disillusioned Soviets who were never far from hunger, know what they are ready to struggle for. Our country is finding its place. Compare the Soviet armed forces, lumbering and expensive, with the nimble military of Russia today.

这些制裁会对普通俄罗斯人造成伤害，但制裁正在将我们的国家从沉睡中唤醒。诚然，俄罗斯比苏联要小，对自由市场的浪漫信念曾导致俄罗斯走弯路。这个国家的精英，享受着新的财富买来的消费主义愉悦，早已变得安于现状。但弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)总统对西方不抱幻想。跟当年从未远离饥饿、幻想破灭的苏联民众不同，如今的俄罗斯民众知道自己愿意为什么而奋斗。我们的国家正在找到自己的位置。当年苏联军队笨重、耗资巨大，相比之下，如今俄罗斯军队灵活精悍。

A small minority of my compatriots oppose Moscow’s hard line. Twenty years ago it was the reverse: a minority opposed rapprochement with the west. But that was before the west rediscovered the politics of Versailles and decided Russia had to be stopped at all costs. With encouragement, these foreign powers imagined, the new bourgeoisie would revolt against Mr Putin. Instead, they are rallying around him.

在俄罗斯，反对政府强硬路线的民众如今只占少数。20年前，情况是反过来的：反对与西方重新修好的人是少数派。但后来，西方重拾凡尔赛条约式政治，下定决心要不惜一切代价遏制俄罗斯。西方大国以为，只要加以鼓励，俄罗斯的新中产阶级会奋起反抗普京。事实恰恰相反，他们高度拥护普京。

State propaganda plays a role, but Russians have access to western media via the internet and the more of it they see the more they unite around the Kremlin. This is no time for denial: westerners need to understand how their governments made a potential foe out of what was once an aspiring ally. Russia will not yield. This has become a matter of our nation’s life and death.

官方宣传发挥了一定作用，但俄罗斯人能够通过互联网接触到西方媒体——他们看得越多，就越紧密地团结在俄罗斯政府周围。不能再拒绝面对现实：西方人必须理解，他们的政府将一个曾经渴望成为盟友的国家，变成了自己潜在的敌人。俄罗斯不会屈服。这已变成关乎我们国家存亡的事情。

A lasting peace in Europe is a noble aim. It can be achieved only through mutual respect and an accommodation of legitimate interests. Even for a europhile such as me, it will be hard to argue for political union with a Europe that is abandoning, one hopes temporarily, Christianity and traditional norms. But our goal must be to create a common space in which people, capital and energy can move freely between Europe, with its old ties to the US, and a Russia that is embracing Asia.

在欧洲实现持久和平是个崇高的目标。只有通过相互尊重、容纳对方的合理利益诉求，才能实现这个目标。即便是我这样一个亲欧者，也很难主张，我们应与这个正在抛弃基督教信仰和传统准则（希望这只是暂时的）的欧洲结成政治同盟。但我们的目标必须是创造一个共同的空间，让资本和能源能够在与美国保留传统纽带的欧洲和正在拥抱亚洲的俄罗斯之间自由流动。

Meanwhile, we must avoid visiting the horrors of war on the people of Ukraine. If we fail to do that, we will have abandoned another European value: reason.

与此同时，我们必须避免让战争的恐惧笼罩乌克兰人民。不这样做，那就是抛弃了另一项欧洲价值观：理性。