OPEC担心油价将继续下跌

Some of OPEC's Gulf members are concerned about the latest drop in oil Prices which had not been expected, OPEC delegates said, but they see little chance of the exporting group diverting from its policy of defending market share.

一些欧佩克海湾国成员代表对最近预料之外的石油价格下跌十分忧虑，欧佩克代表称，尽管如此，转变政策以维护市场份额的希望仍然不大。

Brent oil is trading near $46 a barrel, close to its 2015 low after an 18 percent drop in July, pressured by abundant supplies and concern about the heAlth of the Chinese economy, the world's second-largest oil consumer. Despite this, the delegates including from Gulf OPEC members who declined to be identified say China is still buying and stockpiling crude and they expect strong global demand growth should push prices back to $60 next year.

受原油供应充足和世界第二大石油消费商---中国经济健康状况的压力，布伦特原油目前股价接近46美元每桶，继7月下降18%后，达到2015年最低价。尽管如此，包括来自海湾的不愿透露姓名的欧佩克与会成员表示，中国仍然在购买和储存原油。他们希望全球对于原油需求的有利增长可以让原油价格在明年回升到60美元每桶。

"There is a concern about the health of the Chinese economy, but as numbers have shown the need to import oil is increasing,"an OPEC delegate from a Gulf oil producer said.

“中国的经济状况让人担忧，但是数据显示，对原油的进口需求在增长。”来自海湾石油生产国的以为欧佩克代表说。

"Oil prices will remain volatile... but they will recover," the delegate said this month, adding that he does not expect OPEC to take any step now "due to unclarity" in the market.

“石油价格将持续波动，但是他们难以恢复，”以为代表本月谈到，并且补充表明他并不期望欧佩克现在采取任何行动，因为市场的状况并不明朗。

Prices have more than halved since June last year. OPEC's Gulf members, relatively wealthy, are better able to cope with low oil prices than the African members, Iran orVenezuela. Led by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf members drove OPEC's strategy shift last year to allow prices to fall to discourage growth in competing supply sources. While non-Gulf members of the Organization of the Petrole Exporting Countries have frequently expressed concern since then about the drop in prices, Gulf members have rarely voiced such sentiments. But there is no indication they expect OPEC's policy to change.

自从去年六月起，原油价格已经下跌过半。相比起欧洲国家成员，那些相对比较富有的欧佩克海湾国代表最好能够适应原油的低价。去年，以沙特阿拉伯为首的海湾国成员驱使欧佩克实行战略转移，使得原油价格下降，以阻碍竞争原油供应商的增加。然而，非海湾石油输出国组织成员自油价下跌以后，常常表达自己的担忧，海湾成员国则很少表达这样的情绪。但并没有迹象表明，他们期望欧佩克的政策转变。

"Of course everyone is concerned, but we hope by the fourth quarter the market will start recovering," a second OPEC source said, citing the end of seasonal refinery maintenance that will boost crude demand.

“当然，每个人都很忧虑，但是我们希望市场在第四季度会回暖，”欧佩克称，传讯季节性的捡厂维修会增加原油需求。

CHINA CONCERNS

对中国的忧虑

OPEC officials reconfirmed its market-share strategy at its last meeting in June. At the time, delegates were expecting a recovery in prices towards the end of 2015, supported by expected higher global demand.

在6月的最近一次会议中，欧佩克官员再次重申了它的市场份额战略。当时，代表们都期望原油价格在2015年年底凭借全球原油需求的增长回升。

But those sentiments have changed with the latest oil price drop and as concern grows about the demand outlook in China.

但是这种期待伴随着最近石油价格下跌和中国原油需求展望的担忧而改变。

"Prices are expected to stay under downward pressure until the expected enhancement in demand next year, then they can reach around $55-60 a barrel," a third OPEC delegate said.

”预计原油价格会一直处于下行压力中，直到明年预期的需求增加，之后它们可以达到55-60美元每桶，”欧佩克第三代表称。

OPEC currently expects an acceleration of growth in world oil demand next year to 1.34 million barrels per day, from 1.28 million bpd this year, as well as an increase in the demand for its own crude as non-OPEC supply expansion slows.

欧佩克期望明年全球石油需求量可以从128万桶每天增加到134万桶每天，同时随着非欧佩克供应方扩张的变缓，对其自身的需求量会上涨。

Although China's crude demand has so far remained strong as authorities take advantage of cheap oil to build up strategic reserves and consumers kept spending despite the slowing economy, there are signs of weakening, with the devaluation of the yuan potentially denting fuel imports.

由于中国当局利用原油价格下跌进行石油战略储备，中国消费者也并未因为经济增长放慢而停止消费原油，所以中国的原油需求仍然强劲。但是伴随着人民币贬值，原油需求下降的迹象仍然可见。

OPEC delegates and industry sources say it is hard for Saudi Arabia to reverse the policy it championed, particularly at a time when both Iran and Iraq are gearing up to boost their crude exports.

欧佩克代表和业内人员称，沙特阿拉伯很难维持其支持的政策，尤其当伊朗和伊拉克都在摩拳擦掌准备提高其原油出口时。

"The Gulf states are worried about the decline but there will be no change of direction unless Saudi was to lead it," an industry source and OPEC expert said. "At the moment, Saudi is still in charge and they will stick with it."

“海湾国家对于原油价格下降都很担忧，但是出给沙特接管，这一切都不会改变，”一位业内人士和欧佩克专家称，“此时，沙特仍然大权在握并且会坚持自己的政策。”

Adding to the uncertainty over the health of the Chinese economy is concern about rising global oil production in a market that OPEC's own forecasts indicate is already oversupplied by more than 2 million bpd.

加之中国经济状况的不确定性，欧佩克预测已经超额供应了200万桶原油。

Saudi Arabia and Iraq, OPEC's top two producers, have been pumping this year at record highs, and others like Russia have kept production levels elevated.

欧佩克最大的两个石油生产国---沙特阿拉伯和伊朗已经达到了历年石油生产的高峰，其他国家比如俄罗斯，一直在提高石油产量。

OPEC does not meet until Dec. 4 and has rebuffed calls for an emergency meeting by Algeria. While OPEC rules say a simple majority of the 12 OPEC members is needed to call an emergency meeting, insiders say unless Saudi Arabia is among those in favour no meeting is likely.

直到12月4号，欧佩克不会举行会议，阿尔及利亚关于呼吁召开紧急会议的要求已经被回绝。尽管依据欧佩克规定，紧急会议可以在12个成员中的大部分要求时召开，内部人士透露，除非沙特阿拉伯在要求者之列，否则会议不会召开。

"Emergency meetings need coordination and agreement or at least a proposal before the ministers go for it, and I don't see this happening," said the second OPEC source.

“紧急会议的召开需要协调和同意，至少在部长要求以前有一个提案，这些我都没有见到。”