朝鲜导弹威胁升级 美强调防御系统重要性

US Cites Growing N. Korea Long-Range Missile Threat

朝鲜导弹威胁升级 美强调防御系统重要性

President Obama’s National Intelligence Director recently told the U.S. Congress that North Korea has made advancements toward developing a long-range ballistic missile that could reach the U.S. At the same time, a possible deployment of a U.S. missile defense system in South Korea is being debated, but for officials in Seoul, these two issues are not necessarily related.

美国国家情报总监詹姆斯·克拉珀最近对国会表示，朝鲜在发展可以到达美国领土的远程弹道导弹方面取得了显著进步。与此同时，在韩国部署美国导弹防御系统的计划正在受到激烈辩论，而首尔官员认为这两个问题之间不一定有关系。

In written testimony to Congress, James Clapper, the U.S. National Intelligence Director, last week said that North Korea has taken steps to deploy a long range, inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) called the KN-08 that will be capable of reaching the U.S.

美国国家情报总监詹姆斯·克拉珀上周在对国会的书面证词中表示，朝鲜正在采取步骤部署名为KN-08的洲际弹道导弹，这种导弹的射程可以到达美国。

Around the same time David Stilwell, the Pentagon’s deputy director for Politico-Military Affairs for Asia, said the North Korean missile threat has created a “demand” for the THAAD missile defense system on the Korean Peninsula.

五角大楼的亚洲政治军事事务副主任戴维·史迪威说，朝鲜导弹威胁凸显了在朝鲜半岛上部署终端高空区域防御系统的“必要性”。

While North Korea’s growing long-range missile threat and South Korea’s missile defense needs may be overlapping U.S. security concerns, they are separate issues to Seoul.

朝鲜发展远程弹道导弹和在韩国部署导弹系统是美国关注的同一个安全问题，但是对于首尔来说，这是两个截然不同的议题。

Shin In-kyun, a security analyst with the Korea Defense Network said South Korea's concerns are short-range threats, not ICBMs.

韩国防卫网络的安全分析师申寅均说，韩国担心的是短程导弹而不是洲际弹道导弹的威胁。

He said ICBMs cannot attack South Korea due to their maximum firing range. So he thinks Clapper’s comments on ICBMs were made to express pre-emptive warning or worries about a possible cut in the defense budget, rather than the deployment of THAAD in South Korea.

他说，洲际弹道导弹由于射程远而无法攻击韩国。所以他认为，史迪威对于远程导弹的评论是基于对可能削减国防预算的担忧，而不是马上在韩国部署终端高空区域防御系统。

The THAAD missile defense system, which is equipped with radar capable of tracking objects 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) away, is designed to intercept ballistic missiles at high altitude.

终端高空区域防御系统能够使用雷达探测到1900公里以外的物体，其目的是拦截高空的弹道导弹。

China and Russia oppose its deployment in Korea because THAAD could possibly be used to intercept their missiles and would enhance U.S. military capabilities in the region.

中国和俄罗斯反对在韩国部署这个系统，因为这能够拦截他们的导弹，而且能够加强美国在亚太地区的军事实力。

Officials in Seoul have so far avoided taking a stand on THAAD. When asked, they repeat the “three nos”: no official request has come from Washington, no official consultations have been conducted and no decision has yet been made on whether to station a THAAD battery on the Korean Peninsula.

首尔官员目前没有就这个防御系统表态。当被问及这个问题时，他们的回答是“三个没有”：也就是目前没有来自华盛顿的官方要求，没有官员对此进行正式磋商，没有决定是否在朝鲜半岛部署终端高空区域防御导弹。

As for North Korea’s long-range missile threat, Pyongyang has yet to test fire the KN-08, a step that is considered essential to its eventual development and deployment.

而朝鲜方面，平壤目前还没有试射KN-8远程弹道导弹。而一旦试射，将意味着朝鲜能够最终发展和部署这种武器。

Analysts associated with the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Affairs say there is satellite imagery that shows rocket engine testing and construction underway at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in North Korea that supports Clapper’s assertion. They say the worst case scenario is that North Korea will deploy a functioning ICBM missile within the next three to five years, but ongoing sanctions and technical constraints could impede the development timeline by years or even decades.

约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院美韩研究所的分析师表示，卫星图像显示朝鲜西海卫星发射场有火箭弹引擎试验和建设的画面，这佐证了克拉珀的说法。他们表示，最糟糕的情况将是朝鲜在未来3年到5年内部署一个洲际弹道导弹系统，然而目前的制裁和技术限制很可能把这个时间推迟数年或数十年。

Shin In-kyun said North Korea must complete a number of tests before it can enter the ICBM deployment stage.

申寅均说，在部署洲际弹道导弹前，朝鲜必须完成一系列测试。

He said that in order to be recognized as a weapon, a missile must pass at least ten firing tests and score 70 percent, or succeed about 7 times in the firing tests.

他说，一个导弹要通过至少十次试射，其中有7次成功，才能被认为是有效武器。

Because the KN-08 has not been tested, he estimates it will take several more years for North Korea to build a working ICBM.

但由于KN-08还没有经过试射，他预计朝鲜还要用几年时间来完成洲际弹道导弹。

It is also not known how close North Korea is to developing a miniaturized nuclear warhead that could be used on a ballistic missile. Last year General Curtis Scaparrotti, the Commander of U.S. Forces Korea, said he believed North Korea has the expertise and capability to build a miniaturized nuclear device, and the South Korean Minister of Defense Han Min-koo also said Pyongyang has made progress in its miniaturization technology.

目前还不清楚朝鲜弹道导弹的小型核弹头发展到何种程度。去年，驻韩美军司令官柯蒂斯·斯卡帕罗蒂上将表示，他相信朝鲜有能力制造小型核弹头。而韩国国防部长官韩民求也说，平壤在小型化技术上取得进展。