俄罗斯为何反对美建立导弹防御体系？

A ballistic missile defense system stationed in Europe has been a contentious issue between the United States and Russia for many years.

多年来，设在欧洲的弹道导弹防御体系一直是美国和俄罗斯争论不休的问题。

The Bush administration first proposed to deploy 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar facility in the Czech Republic. That proposal addressed Iran’s long-range ballistic missile threat. But in September 2009, President Barack Obama canceled the Bush plan, opting for what experts describe as a more flexible approach.

布什政府首先提出在波兰部署10枚拦截导弹，在捷克建立一座雷达设施。这是为了对付伊朗的远程弹道导弹威胁而提出的计划。但是2009年9月，奥巴马总统取消了布什的这项计划，专家认为，这个选择在做法上更为灵活。

Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, a private research group, said the Obama system is designed to deal with the missile threat that already exists - the short and medium-range missiles that could come from Iran.

武器控制协会是一个民间研究机构。这个机构的负责人达里尔.金博尔认为，奥巴马的导弹防御体系是为了对付已经存在的导弹威胁，这些威胁可能来自伊朗的短程和中长程导弹。

“They [Iranians] have short-range ballistic missiles that are capable of reaching their immediate neighbors within a couple hundred kilometers of their border," said Kimball. "They have some medium-range missiles that can strike the edges of Europe and Israel - all of these are armed with conventional warheads.”

他说：“伊朗有短程弹道导弹，能射到邻国距离边界两百公里以内的地方。伊朗还有一些中程导弹，能射到欧洲和以色列的边缘，这些导弹都安装了传统的弹头。”

Obama missile-defense plan

The Obama plan involves putting SM-3 ground-based interceptors in Poland by 2015 and in Romania by 2018. These are still being developed.

奥巴马政府计划在2015年之前在波兰，2018年之前在罗马尼亚设立陆基SM-3导弹拦截器。这个计划正在发展阶段。

But Marko Papic, analyst with STRATFOR, a private intelligence firm, said there are SM-3 missiles aboard U.S. Navy ships and those are included in the Obama missile defense plan.

但是民间情报公司STRATFOR的分析师马尔科.帕皮克说，美国海军船舰上载有SM-3导弹，这是在奥巴马的导弹防御计划之内。

“The United States can position wherever the threat is most imminent from," said Papic. "So, for example, the U.S. could steam its vessels into the Baltic Sea or the Mediterranean or the Black Sea and position a counter to potential missile threats from the Middle East or from North Korea from there - which is why the ground-based component of it, it’s not really clear it’s even necessary.”

马尔科.帕皮克说：“美国的导弹能对准来自各方最逼近的威胁。比方说，美国能把船舰开进波罗的海、地中海或黑海，锁定的位置用来反制来自中东或北韩的导弹威胁。这就是为什么美国可能根本不需要地基导弹拦截器。”

For years, Russian officials have criticized the U.S. missile defense plan. They do not believe its goal is to defend against possible missile attacks from rogue countries.

多年来，俄罗斯官员一直批评美国的导弹防御计划。他们不相信这个计划的目的是为了抵御来自流氓国家的可能的导弹攻击。Russia's suspicion

Arms control expert Joseph Cirincione said Russia is convinced the U.S. seeks advantage over Moscow, knowing its nuclear forces are slowly declining.

武器控制问题专家约瑟夫.奇林乔内说，俄罗斯认为，美国知道俄罗斯的核力量正在缓慢衰退，因此美国想趁虚而入。

“They are aging and Russia doesn’t have the money to replace them one-for-one," said Cirincione. "They are worried that the U.S. is going to seek some advantage by putting up a ring of anti-missile systems around Russia, supposedly aimed at Iran but the Russians believe secretly aimed at them, and then be able to take out Russia’s nuclear forces in a first strike, mopping up whatever is left by an anti-missile system that could shoot down Russian missiles. That is a complete fantasy, by the way. There is no truth to that whatsoever.”

他说：“那些核力量正在老化，俄罗斯没有钱一个一个的更新。俄罗斯担心美国想通过在俄罗斯周围设立反导弹圈，来谋取一些好处；这些导弹的目的原本是对付伊朗，但是俄罗斯人认为，是为了秘密对付俄罗斯，然后美国就能在首次行动中拿下俄罗斯的核力量，并且用足以打下俄罗斯导弹的反导弹体系来扫荡残余的核力量。其实这完全是幻想，完全不是事实。”

Papic with STRATFOR said that for Moscow, it really doesn’t matter what kind of missiles the Americans put in place in Europe.

STRATFOR公司的分析师马尔科.帕皮克说，对莫斯科而言，美国在欧洲设置什么样的导弹都无关紧要。

“Because ultimately, the Russian deterrent is not countered by this plan - and that’s because Russia has an overwhelming number of intercontinental ballistic missiles that it could launch on Europe if it really wanted to, with, of course, multiple warheads and things like that. So there is absolutely no way America can prevent an attack.”

他说：“因为说到底，美国的计划吓阻不了俄罗斯。这是由于俄罗斯有压倒性数量的洲际弹道导弹，如果俄罗斯想要的话，这些安置了多枚弹头的导弹能在欧洲发射。因此美国完全没有办法预防俄罗斯的导弹袭击。”

Fear of US presence

Papic and others say Russia realizes the military part of its criticism is bogus. But Papic said what is unacceptable to Moscow, is that the U.S. missile defense installations represent a move by American forces into central and Eastern Europe.

帕皮克和其他人士说，俄罗斯意识到，它对美国军事部分的批评是虚张声势，但是帕皮克说，莫斯科不接受的是，美国的导弹防设施展现出美国力量进入到了中欧和东欧。

“Fundamentally, what Russia doesn’t want to see, is American quote-unquote ‘boots on the ground’ - moving from their positions of Cold War Germany and Western Europe, closer to Russia’s sphere of influence and periphery,” said Papic.

帕皮克说：“基本上，俄罗斯不想看到的是“美国人的靴子踩上更多土地”，从冷战时的德国和西欧，移动到距离俄罗斯影响所及和周边地区更近的地方。”

At the NATO summit in Lisbon last year, the United States and Russia agreed to collaborate on the issue of missile defense. Experts say while some progress has been made, Moscow is still fundamentally opposed to the U.S. missile defense plan.

去年在里斯本举行的北约高峰会上，美国和俄罗斯同意在导弹防御问题上进行协作。专家认为，虽然取得了一些进展，但是莫斯科仍然从根本上反对美国的导弹防御计划。