寒冬袭来 低油价迫美国油企开始减产

HOUSTON — With oil prices plunging at an ever-quickening rate, producers are beginning to slash the number of drilling rigs around the country.

休斯敦——随着油价不断加速暴跌，美国各地的石油生产商开始削减钻机数量。

The nationAl rig count had remained surprisingly resilient over recent months even as oil prices dropped by more than 50 percent since June, and it still tops the count of a year ago as domestic production continues to surge.

虽然自去年6月以来，油价跌幅超过50%，但美国钻机的数量在最近几个月里保持了惊人的韧性，仍然高于一年前的数字，而美国石油产量也在继续飙升。

But an announcement on Wednesday by Helmerich & Payne, the giant contract rig company, that it planned to idle up to 50 rigs over the next month sent shudders through the industry. And that came on top of 11 rigs that it has already mothballed, meaning that in just a few weeks, its shale drilling activity will be reduced by about 20 percent.

但本周三，这个行业泛起了寒意，因为大型钻机承包公司赫尔默里奇和佩恩(Helmerich& Payne)宣布，计划于下个月关停最多达50台钻机。之前它已经封存了11部钻机，这意味着，在短短几周内，其页岩钻探活动将减少20%。

“Low oil prices are increasingly impacting the U.S. land drilling market,” the company said in a presentation to a Goldman Sachs energy conference.

“低油价对美国陆上钻井市场的影响越来越大，”在高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一个能源会议上，该公司在发言时表示。

The announcement was an early indication that the oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, was in the early stages of its latest downturn. Energy companies drop rigs when drilling costs outpace the price they think they will attract, leading to lower production and higher prices. But until the effects ripple through the market, consumers and the broader economy will most likely enjoy the benefits of low gasoline and heating oil prices for at least the next six months, energy experts say.

石油行业历来荣衰交替，而该消息是一个早期迹象，表明该行业处于最新一轮衰退的初期阶段。当钻油成本超过能源公司预期的石油价格，他们就会关闭钻机，降低产量，促使价格回升。但在这种影响波及整个市场之前，至少在未来半年内，消费者和其他经济领域可以享受到低价汽油和燃料油的实惠，能源专家表示。

As for the industry, the signs of retraction are clear. The nation’s rig count, a barometer of oil exploration and production activity, fell by 26 in the week that ended Jan. 2, following a drop of 16 the week before, according to the Baker Hughes service company.

就这个行业而言，萎缩的迹象十分明显。钻机数量是石油勘探和生产活动的晴雨表，贝克休斯(Baker Hughes)服务公司的数据显示，在截至1月2日的一周里，美国的钻机数量减少了26台，之前一周减少了16台。

The cuts could eventually be felt in areas where the local economy depends on oil. Each rig represents about 100 jobs, from roughneck field hands to maintenance workers, and the current rig count is down 85, or 5 percent, from a recent peak in late 2014.

那些经济依赖石油的地区，最终可能会感觉到这种削减带来的影响。每台钻机提供了大约100个工作岗位，包括从现场操作员到维修工的多个工种。相较于2014年年底的最近一次高峰期，目前的钻机数量减少了85台，降幅为5%。

“Demand for rigs is falling off the cliff,” said Joseph Triepke, a financial analyst and managing director of Oilpro, an industry publishing company. “Exploration and production budgets are down anywhere from 30 to 40 percent and the cuts are happening faster than we thought.”

“钻机需求出现了断崖式的减少，”财务分析师、行业出版公司Oilpro的董事总经理约瑟夫·特里普克(Joseph Triepke)说。“无论哪里，勘探与生产预算都削减了30%到40%，而且削减的速度快于我们的预期。”

Mr. Triepke predicted that over the next six months, the big three land drilling companies — Helmerich & Payne, Nabors Industries and Patterson-UTI Energy — are “likely to cut approximately 15,000 jobs out of the 50,000 people they currently employ.”

特里普克预测，在未来六个月内，三大陆上钻井公司——赫尔默里奇和佩恩、纳伯斯工业公司(Nabors Industries)和帕特森-UTI能源公司(Patterson-UTI Energy)——“可能削减约1.5万个工作岗位，他们目前雇佣了5万多人。”

Already, day rates that oil companies are willing to pay for rigs have dropped 10 percent, Helmerich & Payne said. That is a sign, analysts said, that producers are trying to squeeze costs before they cut revenue-producing output required to pay dividends and the interest on their debts.

目前，石油公司愿意支付的钻机的日费率已下跌了10%，赫尔默里奇和佩恩公司说。分析师表示，这是一个迹象，表明石油生产商正试图压低成本，然后他们可能就会削减产量了，这些产量带来了营收，需要为之支付股息和债务利息。

Even with the reductions, though, large-scale layoffs across the industry are not expected, at least not immediately. Producers contract their rigs for as long as three to four years, and many companies have hedges that lock in higher prices than the going market rates. In addition, producers often need to drill simply to retain their leases or keep their revenue up.

但是，即便是出现了这样的削减，整个行业可能也不会进行大规模裁员，至少不会立即进行。生产商的钻机使用合同期为三到四年，很多公司都采用对冲手段，锁定了比当下市场价格更高的价格。此外，生产商钻油往往只不过是为了保住租约，或者保持营收在一定水平。

Nationwide, the oil industry employs about a million people, including extraction, pipeline construction and refining, and the boom has added about 150,000 industry jobs over the last three years, according to Citi Research.

从全国范围来看，石油业雇用了大约一百万人，其中包括开采、管道建设、炼油岗位，在过去三年的繁荣期里，就业岗位增加了约15万个，花旗研究(Citi Research)的资料显示。

Industry executives say companies are reluctant to let highly skilled workers go, especially when oil prices are likely to rebound in the next couple of years as global energy demand rises. But rig and fracking crews will inevitably be let go first, they said, since those workers can easily be rehired or replaced when drilling rebounds.

业内高管表示，公司不愿裁减技能娴熟的工人，尤其是油价有可能在未来几年随着全球能源需求的回暖而反弹。但是，钻机和水力压裂工作人员首先被裁是不可避免的，他们说，因为钻井活动出现反弹时，很容易就能雇佣到这类工人。

Domestic oil production has increased by more than a million barrels a day in each of the last three years. But executives say they believe production may begin to slow near the end of the year as the drilling of new wells declines.

在过去三年中，美国国内石油产量每天增加逾一百万桶。但高管们表示，随着新油井钻探活动的减少，产量可能会在接近年底的时候开始降低。

On Wednesday, the global Brent benchmark dropped below $50 a barrel for the first time since May 2009, before settling around $51. The American benchmark rose slightly, to around $48.

上周三，国际基准布伦特原油价格自2009年5月以来第一次跌破每桶50美元，之后在约51美元的价格站稳。美国基准小幅上涨至每桶约48美元。

But producers in some American fields are receiving far less than that. Because of a shortage of pipelines and the distance to major markets, North Dakota’s Bakken shale producers this month so far are selling their crude for as little as $34 a barrel.

但美国一些生产商正在以远低于市场的价格出售石油。北达科他州的巴肯页岩生产商由于缺乏管道，和主要市场相距遥远，本月到目前为止，他们出售原油的价格低至每桶34美元。

That is why oil executives say the state that rapidly emerged as the nation’s second-biggest producer after Texas could suffer the biggest reversal in investment and output in the coming months.

这就是为什么石油公司高管说，在未来数个月，北达科他州可能会在投资和产出上出现最大逆转的原因；之前，该州迅速成为了仅次于德州的全国第二大石油出产州。

“Drilling in North Dakota is very expensive and the costs are extremely high,” noted Chris Faulkner, chief executive of Breitling Energy, an oil and gas explorer that left North Dakota a year ago to concentrate operations on South Texas. “If you are not in the middle of the sweet spot in the Bakken there is no way you are now going to risk 10 or 11 million dollars on a well.”

“在北达科他州钻油非常昂贵，成本极高，”石油和天然气开采公司Breitling Energy的首席执行官克里斯·福克纳(Chris Faulkner)说。一年前，该公司撤离北达科他州，专心在南德克萨斯开展业务。“现在来说，如果你不是站在富含石油的贝肯岩层的中心点上，就绝不能拿1000或1100万美元在一口油井上冒险。”