低调谋发展 中国将主宰世界能源格局

The starting point for anyone wanting to understand how the world’s energy markets will develop over the next 20 years must be China. Companies, bankers, investors and those of us who try to follow the industry will have to shift our attention away from locAl circumstances in Europe or the US. What happens in both continents is interesting, but on the world scale it pales into insignificance. Even a very radical change in the European market — a real carbon price or a single common energy policy, or indeed the development of French and German shale gas — would be as nothing compared to the transformation that is coming, as China becomes the dominant force in every part of the energy business.

要把握世界能源市场今后20年的发展趋势，必须以中国为出发点。企业、银行家、投资者，还有其他任何密切关注能源行业的人士，必须把注意力从欧洲或美国本地的形势转移开。这两个大陆发生的事情确实值得关注，但放在全球层面上就没那么重要了。即便欧洲市场上出现了根本性的变革，比如确定了碳价格或实行了单一能源政策，或者是法国和德国的页岩气开发取得了实质性进展，与一个即将到来的重大变化——中国将成为能源产业各领域的主导力量——相比，它们就都不值一提。

Consider a few facts and projections. The facts are taken from the BP Statistical Review, while the projections are from the International Energy Agency annual outlook and reflect the general consensus of private sector forecasters

我们来看一些事实和预测。这些事实摘自英国石油公司(BP)的《世界能源统计年鉴》(BP Statistical Review of World Energy)，而预测则来自国际能源机构(IEA)的年度展望报告，它们反映了私营部门预测人员的普遍共识。

In the last decade, Chinese oil use has almost doubled. Gas consumption has risen fivefold and electricity production is up by factor of 9. Total energy demand in China is up 60 per cent in a decade and 300 per cent since 1990. China alone now accounts for 22 per cent of global energy every day. And that is just the beginning.

上个十年里，中国的石油消耗量几乎翻了一番，天然气消耗量增长了5倍，发电量则增长9倍。在十年的时间里，中国的能源总需求增长了60%。如果从1990年算起，总需求则增长了三倍。目前中国的能源日消耗量占全球的22%，而这还只是开始。

The projections for the next 20 years suggest another surge, with oil demand set to double again, gas use to more than double and total energy consumption to rise by 70 per cent even allowing for an optimistic view of gains in energy efficiency.

在针对今后20年的预测中，我们将又一次看到中国需求的激增。中国对石油的需求将再次翻番，天然气消耗量将增加不止一倍。即使对能源使用效率的提升持乐观看法，今后20年中国能源消耗总量也将增长70%。

Of course, 20 year projections are not meant to be taken as precise forecasts. Chinese data is far from perfect and the outlook is based on a number of assumptions about public policy decisions. The detail matters less than the broad direction which the numbers describe. The overall story is that Chinese energy consumption will shape every part of the energy business — from oil and gas to nuclear and renewables.

当然，时间跨度长达20年的预测不可能十分精确。中国的数据还很不完善，而且以上预测是基于对公共决策的一系列假定得出的。但是详细的数据没有这些数据所反映出的总体趋势重要。这个总趋势就是：从石油和天然气，到核能和可再生能源，中国的能源消费将决定全球能源产业各个领域的格局。

Even if you believe, as I do, that China will inevitably experience something close to a normal economic cycle with periods of low growth, and even recessions, the direction of change remains a valid projection of the future. Indeed, there is a case for saying that the figures set out above understate the possible growth in demand. As an excellent article by Robert Wilson on the website Energy Collective makes clear, most of China’s current energy demand growth is driven by the needs of industry.

即使你和我一样，相信中国将不可避免地经历某种类似正常经济周期的现象，会出现经济增长放缓甚至是衰退的时期，以上变化趋势依然是对未来的有效预测。事实上，有理由认为上述数据低估了中国需求的可能增长。正如罗伯特•威尔逊(Robert Wilson)在Energy Collective网站发表的一篇精彩文章所阐明的，中国当下能源需求的增长主要是由工业需求带动的。

The Chinese economy is clearly still in a phase of production growth, helped on by the self-defeating decisions of the EU to increase its own energy costs and therefore to encourage the migration of economic activity to lower cost areas. Global industrial production is growing but the geographic location of that production is changing. Such migration does nothing to reduce net emissions of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases.

中国经济显然仍处于生产增长的阶段。与此同时，欧盟却决定提高自己的能源成本，这一自讨苦吃的决策促使经济活动转移到成本较低的地区，这对中国生产的增长起到了助推。全球工业生产正在增长，但生产活动的地理位置却在发生改变。这种迁移对降低二氧化碳或其他温室气体的净排放量没有任何作用。

But the production growth phase may not continue to be the dominant force in driving energy demand in China. That growth could be supplemented over time by increases in personal consumption. As Wilson points out, Chinese per capita use of energy for travel and in the home is still a fraction of the levels in Europe or the US. The shift is beginning, but there is a long way to go.

然而，中国处于生产增长阶段这一因素可能不会继续成为推动中国能源需求增长的主导力量。随着时间推移，个人消费的增长可能也将帮助推动中国能源需求增长。正如威尔逊所指出的，相对欧美来说，无论是出外旅游还是在家，中国人均能源消耗量都处于极低水平。这种现象开始发生改变，不过还有很长的路要走。

The figures above may also understate China’s share of global energy demand if the European economy remains stagnant and the Middle East remains in chaos.

此外，如果欧洲经济保持停滞，中东仍然一片混乱，以上数据还有可能低估中国占全球能源需求的比重。

Two issues arise from all this. First, what choices will the Chinese make on the key decisions that will determine how the future global energy markets evolve? Will they shift away from coal in the interests of clean air in the cities — a topic of live political debate? Will the Chinese tolerate ever-increasing imports and the potential vulnerabilities that brings? Will they pour money into scientific research on renewables in the hope of maintaining a higher level of energy self-sufficiency? All these are public policy decisions, but given the scale of China’s role they will shape demand, and therefore global prices, for all forms of energy.

所有这一切引发了两个问题。首先，在一些将决定未来全球能源市场动向的关键决策上，中国会做出什么样的选择？中国会不会为了让城市拥有干净的空气，放弃使用煤炭（这是一个引发激烈政治争论的话题）？中国能否容忍进口的不断增长，以及由此带来的潜在脆弱性？中国会不会为了维持较高的能源自给率，在可再生能源的科研上投入重资？所有这些都是中国自己的公共决策，然而考虑到中国影响力的大小，这些决策将决定所有形式的能源的需求，从而影响它们的国际定价。

The second broad issue is for the corporate sector. China will dominate global energy demand growth for the next two decades. Are the majors (or indeed smaller) energy companies prepared for this, or are they happy to remain in the shrinking markets of the US and Europe where total oil demand on the IEA’s projections is set to continue falling?

第二大问题是企业部门的问题。今后20年，中国将主导全球能源需求的增长。另一方面，根据国际能源机构的预测，欧美能源市场的石油总需求将持续降低。对这种变化趋势，那些大能源企业（或许事实上应该是那些规模较小的能源企业）是否已做好准备，还是将乐于留在不断萎缩的欧美市场？

Most corporates see the opportunity, but few have moved beyond the most limited initial steps. Looking at the most recent annual reports of the oil and gas majors, the shares of total assets and revenue coming from Asia is minimal and far below the region’s weighting in current — let alone future — demand. Few of the companies have many visible Asian-born leaders.

多数企业都看到了由此带来的机遇，然而除了极为有限的初步举措之外，采取进一步措施的企业寥寥无几。从石油和天然气巨头最近的年度报告就能看到，在它们的总资产和营收中，亚洲市场所占份额极小，远低于亚洲在当前全球需求中所占的比重——更不用说将来的需求了。此外，没有几家企业拥有许多明显出生在亚洲的领导人。

Taking a long term view, which after all is what the biggest companies are supposed to do, you can’t help feeling that there is a great prize to be won by becoming China’s strategic partner: guaranteeing supplies from across the world market. In a world beyond colonialism that is the function the great multinationals are built to perform.

大企业应该着眼于长远，而从长远来看，你会不由得想到，成为中国的战略合作伙伴——确保来自全球市场的供应——将得到巨大实惠。在这个没有了殖民主义的时代，这正是大型跨国公司所应履行的职能。

Perhaps it is no coincidence then to find one of the majors sponsoring the brilliant and highly recommended new exhibition of treasures from the Ming Dynasty at the British Museum in London.

伦敦大英博物馆(British Museum)新近举办的美奂美仑、备受推崇的中国明朝珍宝展，赞助商就是这样一家大型能源公司，这或许并非偶然。