习奥峰会标志中美经济关系转折

Friday's summit between the leaders of China and the U.S. marks a turning point in economic relations between the world's two largest economies: China growth is slowing sharply after a long boom while the U.S. economy is slowly regaining its vigor after a long slump.

中美领导人将于本周五举行峰会，这是世界上两个最大经济体经济关系的转折点：中国经济在保持长期高增长后急剧放缓，美国经济则在长时间低迷后慢慢恢复活力。

'There has been an air of triumphalism on the part of China in recent meetings of Chinese and U.S. leaders,' said Mark Williams, a former British Treasury China hand who is now an analyst for Capital Economics in London. 'That has faded as China's recognition of the medium-term challenges it faces has increased.'

前英国财政部精通中国经济的威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)说，近来中美领导人的会议上弥漫着一种中国必胜的气氛。现为凯投宏观(Capital Economics)驻伦敦分析师的威廉姆斯说，由于中国愈发意识到自己面临着那些中期挑战，这种气氛随之消退。

There have been other shifts in the two nations' economic relations: The appreciation of the yuan has moved the currency issue─long a central point of contention─to the back burner, and the recent offer by a Chinese company for the maker of Smithfield ham illustrates the larger role that cross-investment now plays in ties. Last week, Beijing suggested it may even join U.S.-led trade talks that it had long seen as an effort to contain China's rise.

中美两国的经济关系还有其它变化：人民币升值使得长期处于争议焦点的货币问题退到次要位置，而一家中国公司最近提出收购Smithfield火腿生产商则表明跨境投资如今在双边关系中发挥更大作用。上周，北京表示可能会加入由美国牵头的贸易谈判，中国一直认为美国努力利用这些谈判来遏制中国崛起。

The changing circumstances present an opportunity for presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping to refocus economic relations, say China specialists. The meeting could help set a new tone for economic relations that could let both countries expand investment and liberalize trade. Though specific commitments are likely to come from follow-up negotiating sessions, not the California summit.

研究中国问题的专家说，不断变化的形势让美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)和中国国家主席习近平有机会再次把注意力放到两国的经济关系上来。这次峰会或许有助于为中美经济关系定下新基调，让两国均能扩大投资，增进贸易自由化。不过具体承诺可能不会在加州峰会上做出，而是在后续谈判中产生。

President Xi is looking for ways to reduce fears of Chinese investment in the U.S. as well as to convince his American host that China is serious about overhauls, say Chinese economists. President Obama wants to encourage Beijing to follow through on years of pledges by Chinese officials that the country will revamp its economy so it relies more on domestic spending than exports and investment, which would provide trade and investment opportunities for U.S. firms.

中国经济学家说，习近平正在想办法减少外界对中国在美投资的担心，同时也想劝说奥巴马相信，中国对改革的态度是严肃认真的。奥巴马希望敦促北京履行中国官员多年来重整经济的承诺，使其更加依赖国内支出而不是出口和投资，而这会为美国公司提供贸易和投资机会。

'We see this [meeting] as an opportunity to get a better understanding of the kind of domestic policies and reforms' that Mr. Xi and other senior Chinese leaders are discussing at home, said a White House official.

白宫一位官员说：我们认为这次峰会让我们有机会进一步了解习近平和中国其他高级官员在中国国内所讨论的该国政策和改革。

The most-recent time a Chinese president came to the U.S. for a summit, Hu Jintao's visit in January 2011, China's economy was humming: It grew at a 9.3% annual clip in the first quarter of that year on the strength of a powerful stimulus plan that helped the country continue to grow rapidly despite the global financial meltdown. China's prestige in Latin America and Africa was soaring on the strength of Chinese investment there.

中国国家主席上一次到访美国出席峰会是在2011年1月，当时的中国国家主席是胡锦涛。那时中国经济一派欣欣向荣的景象。凭借一个强大的刺激计划，中国经济当年第一季度折合成年率增长9.3%。尽管发生了全球金融危机，该计划仍帮助中国经济继续快速增长。另外，中国凭借对拉美和非洲的投资，极大地提高了自己在这两个地区的声望。

The U.S. economy, by contrast, grew just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2011, while the Federal Reserve was in the midst of its second round of the massive bond buying known as quantitative easing, which many developing nations saw as a way to drive down the dollar at their expense.

相比之下，美国经济2011年第一季度仅增长了0.1%，美联储(Federal Reserve)当时正在进行第二轮名为“定量宽松”的大规模购债行动。很多发展中国家认为此举是以损害它们的利益为代价而压低美元汇率。

Now, the situation has shifted. The U.S. grew 2.4% in the first quarter of 2013 as the economy has regained its footing. U.S. technological prowess is helping to revive manufacturing and make the country a powerful energy supplier through its exploitation of shale gas, two sectors that seemed down for the count not long ago.

如今，形势发生了转变。随着美国经济重新站稳脚跟，2013年第一季度美国经济增长2.4%。美国的科技实力正在帮助重振制造业，并通过对页岩气的开发利用将美国打造成一个极具影响的能源供应国。制造业和能源这两个行业不久前似乎还一蹶不振。

Meanwhile, China's leaders are still searching for a formula to stimulate innovation in science and industry, and grappling with how to tamp down credit and housing bubbles. According to Goldman Sachs GS -2.09% calculations, China's GDP slipped to 6.4% in the first quarter, when measured on an annualized basis─the gauge used by the U.S. and other wealthy nations─which would make it China's weakest quarter since the financial crisis.

与此同时，中国的领导人仍在寻找促进科技和工业创新的方法，并想方设法为信贷和楼市泡沫降温。据高盛(Goldman Sachs)的计算，今年第一季度中国GDP增速折合成年率下滑至6.4%，这可能将是中国自金融危机以来经济增长最疲弱的一个季度。折合成年率的增速是美国和其他富裕国家通常使用的衡量标准。

'No one can forecast with confidence the future of the Chinese economy,' said Harvard economist Lawrence Summers, a former White House economic adviser and Treasury secretary. 'In retrospect, U.S. alarmism about Japanese growth peaked at about the same point that the Japanese competitive threat to the American economy peaked.'

哈佛大学经济学家萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)说，没有人有十足的把握预测中国经济的未来。回想过去，美国对日本增长的不安达到顶点时正是日本竞争力对美国经济构成的威胁达到顶点之际。萨默斯曾任白宫经济顾问和美国财政部长。

China's new leaders, who took over the government reins in March, are drawing up plans to steer away from economic dependence on exports and investment in infrastructure and capital-intensive industries, areas that offer much less bang for the yuan than they once did. That planning presents an opportunity for Washington, as Beijing looks for fresh ideas. 'This is an opportune time for the U.S. to endorse and support China's reform agenda, which is clearly in the long-term interest of both countries,' says Cornell University China expert Eswar Prasad. 'What China would like to send back home would be images of Xi and Obama rolling up their shirt sleeves and getting down to business as equals.'

今年3月接掌政府大权的中国新一代领导人正在制定计划，以便使中国在经济上摆脱对出口、基础设施投资和资金密集型产业的依赖。这些行业给人民币带来的好处大不如前。在北京寻找新想法之际，这一规划对华盛顿来说是一个机会。康奈尔大学(Cornell University)中国问题专家普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)说，这是美国赞同并支持中国改革日程的一个良机，中国的改革日程显然有利于两国的长远利益。中国希望向国内展示的将是习近平和奥巴马挽起衣袖，以平等的姿态讨论实质性问题的形象。

Others say that the U.S. has little leverage in Beijing, and that an endorsement of its overhauls could backfire if it seems as if President Xi is seen as kowtowing to Americans.

其他人说，北京方面并不认为美国能有什么影响力，如果美国支持中国的改革让人觉得习近平好像是在向美国人“磕头”似的，那么可能会适得其反。

China's previous leaders also talked of changes but did little to turn the rhetoric into reality. Boosting social benefits for migrant workers, for instance, has long been seen as necessary to get them to settle in the cities with their families and open their wallets. But proposals to tap state-owned firms and rich regions for additional cash to pay for the benefits have gone nowhere because of resistance from those benefiting from the status quo.

中国以往的领导人也曾谈到过改革，但几乎从未付诸实施。比如，长期以来，人们一直认为如果想让外来务工人员举家定居城市、打开腰包消费，就有必要提高外来务工人员的社会福利。但由于来自既得利益集团的阻力，从国有企业和富裕地区拿出更多资金为外来务工人员提供福利的提案均没了下文。

Moreover, China could settle on strategies that put U.S. companies at a disadvantage, for example by creating government-backed monopolies to reduce excess capacity in the steel, aluminum and other industries rather than by boosting private-sector competition in those areas. 'Reforms should be thoughtfully assessed in relation to U.S. interests,' said former U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky.

此外，中国可能决定实施令美国企业处于不利地位的战略，比如创建政府支持的垄断企业，以便减少钢铁、铝业和其他行业的过剩产能，而不是增强私营部门在这些领域的竞争力。前美国贸易代表巴尔舍夫斯基(Charlene Barshefsky)说，应该对涉及到美国利益的改革进行缜密的评估。

What may make Beijing more receptive to U.S. initiatives, is China's search for new foundations for growth.

可能使北京更愿意接受美国所提出方案的因素在于，中国正寻找新的经济增长基础。

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Messrs. Xi and Obama recently discussed economic and commercial issues during a phone conversation. 'China's now having a deep restructuring of its economy,' Mr. Hong said. 'The purpose is to promote efficient and fast growth of the economy.'

中国外交部发言人洪磊说，习近平和奥巴马最近通电话就经济和商业问题进行探讨。他说：当前中国正在进行深入的经济结构调整，我们的目标是促进经济又好又快增长。

Recently, China signaled it might consider joining negotiations for a U.S.-led free-trade pact known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Beijing officials had previously dismissed as a part of an effort to line up countries against China. Xiao Geng, research director of the Fung Global Institute, a Hong Kong think tank, says that while China's participation remains a longshot, 'even talking about joining is progress.' That's because it indicates that China is looking to use international agreements as a way to prompt change domestically in the same way that joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 forced China to slash tariffs and open up wide swaths of the Chinese economy to foreign competition.

近来中国释放信号，表示可能考虑加入美国主导的一个名为“泛太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协议”(Trans-Pacific Partnership)的自由贸易协定谈判。此前中国官员还对此不予理会，认为这是集结有关国家反对中国之举。香港智库经纶国际经济研究院(Fung Global Institute)研究总监肖耿说，虽然中国参与谈判的可能性不大，但中国谈到可能参加谈判就算是一种进步。这是因为它表明中国正考虑利用国际协议作为一种促进国内变革的方式，就好像2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)迫使中国削减关税、进一步打开中国经济的大门以引入外国竞争者一样。

And as growth in China slows, Chinese companies also have been looking abroad for acquisitions, including a recent bid by Shuanghui International Holdings Ltd. to acquire Smithfield Foods Inc. SFD +0.33% in the U.S.. Mr. Xiao, the Hong Kong economist, said for China to significantly boost its investment in the U.S. it needs to privatize the state-owned firms that make the bulk of the acquisitions. That is because the U.S. and other Western nations suspect state-owned firms make decisions based on Beijing's orders rather than commercial calculations.

随着中国经济增速放缓，中资企业也开始放眼海外进行收购，其中包括最近双汇国际控股有限公司(Shuanghui International Holdings Ltd.)在美国收购Smithfield Foods Inc.。肖耿说，中国想要大幅提高在美投资，那么中国需要将那些进行大量收购的国有企业私有化。这是因为美国和其它西方国家怀疑中国国有企业是根据北京的指示而非商业考虑进行决策。

David Loevinger, a former U.S. Treasury official responsible for China, said the U.S. can use Beijing's investment drive to argue that China needs to act in a reciprocal manner by opening its market further to would-be U.S. buyers. 'US officials will likely contrast the openness of the U.S. to Chinese investment, as evidenced by the recent Smithfield deal, with the inability of foreign companies to buy market leaders in China,' said Mr. Loevinger who is now an analyst at investment firm TCW Group Inc.

美国财政部负责中国事务的前任官员洛文杰(David Loevinger)表示，美国可以利用北京这种想要投资的强烈愿望提出条件，即中国应以互惠互利的方式行事，向潜在美国买家进一步开放市场。他说，美国官员可能会将美国对中国投资的开放程度（正如最近双汇收购Smithfield一案所显示的那样）和外资企业无法在中国收购市场领头企业的事实进行对比。洛文杰现为投资机构TCW Group Inc.的分析师。

One perennial economic issue, the value of China's yuan, is likely to get muted attention at the talks. Since the January 2011 visit of President Hu, the yuan has appreciated 11.9% against the dollar when accounting for inflation, according to Brookings Institution researcher Karim Foda, including a 1.8% increase since the beginning of this year. While China's central bank has intervened to stop the yuan from climbing even further in recent months, tThe appreciation has come at a tough time for China, whose exporters are facing rising costs at home and greater competition from abroad. That gives Mr. Xi a powerful argument that the U.S. should ease its criticism of China's handling of its currency.

此次峰会上，人民币汇率这一中美之间常年存在的经济问题不太可能引发过多关注。布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)研究员福达(Karim Foda)的数据表明，自2011年1月前国家主席胡锦涛访美以来，如将通胀因素考虑在内，人民币兑美元汇率已累计升值11.9%，其中包括今年年初以来1.8%的升值幅度。近几个月中国央行已经介入阻止人民币进一步升值。眼下中国宏观环境令人堪忧，出口企业正面临国内成本上升和国外竞争加剧的双重不利局面。这给习近平提供了一个强有力的论据，即美国应该缓和其对中国汇率政策的批评。

Further concessions on the yuan around the summit are unlikely. Letting the yuan trade freely now, as the U.S. has long sought, risks further appreciation, which could 'do a lot of damage to the Chinese economy,' said RBS economist Louis Kuijs, a former World Bank China economist.

本次峰会期间就人民币问题做出进一步让步不太可能。现在就让人民币汇率自由浮动（就像美国一直希望的那样）可能令人民币进一步升值。世界银行(World Bank)前中国经济学家、现苏格兰皇家银行经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)说，这可能会对中国经济造成很大伤害。