东莞制造业衰退折射中国经济转型阵痛
DONGGUAN, China — Walking around an abandoned furniture factory, Fang Minghua pointed out the workshops where several hundred employees once toiled, transforming sheets of raw wood into TV stands or wardrobes for the aspiring middle class in China and other emerging economies.
中国东莞——方明华（音）在一家废弃家具厂的周围走着，指着曾经是上百名工人辛勤工作的厂房，工人们曾在那里用粗木板制造电视柜和衣柜，供应给中国及其他新兴经济国家里渴望成为中产阶级的人
The factory is relocating to a new facility two hours away, priced out by rising costs and falling orders. Mr. Fang estimated that as many as a third of the furniture factories around town had gone out of business, while many others were struggling.
这家工厂正在搬到距此地两小时车程的新址，由于成本不断上升、订单减少，它在这里已无法生存。据方先生估计，东莞有多达三分之一的家具厂已经倒闭，许多其他厂家也在苦苦挣扎。
“The economic slowdown is real,” said Mr. Fang, 46, who over the past 22 years had worked his way up from $50-a-month laborer to production supervisor.
46岁的方先生说，“经济放缓是真的。”在过去的22年里，他从每月挣50美元（约合400元人民币）的打工者升到生产主管的位置。
The downturn in Dongguan, a once-thriving manufacturing hub, is part of the Chinese economic puzzle that global investors are trying to solve.
东莞曾是繁荣的制造业中心，这里出现的衰退是全球投资者在试图解决的中国经济难题的一部分。
While China has been moving away from the type of low-end manufacturing that has been Dongguan’s specialty, the protracted slump in the country’s vast industrial sector is a major threat to the nation’s already slowing economy. As the government tries to manage the situation, the risk is that the Chinese economy is worse off than expected — a concern that has put markets around the world on edge.
虽然中国已经逐渐从东莞特长的低端制造业转型，但国内庞大工业部门的长期低迷对国家已经放缓的经济是个严重的威胁。随着政府试图对情况进行控制，存在着中国经济情况实际上比预期差的风险，这种担忧已让世界各地的股票市场坐立不安。
The latest signals from China don’t offer much reassurance, with the economic weakness showing little sign of abating. On Tuesday, China reported growth of just 6.8 percent for the fourth quarter, its slowest expansion since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.
来自中国的最新信号并没有给人提供多少安慰，经济疲软没有任何减弱的迹象。周二，中国公布的去年第四季度增长率只有6.8％，这是自2009年的金融危机深渊以来，最慢的经济扩张速度。
When it comes to the economy, Mr. Fang said, politicians and business leaders talk about industrial innovation and upgrading, “but I think that is just a slogan. It’s really hard to carry out.”
方先生说，每当说到经济时，政客和商业领袖们就大谈特谈产业创新和升级，“但我认为那只是个口号。其实很难实现。”
Dongguan is at the heart of south China’s Pearl River Delta. For decades, the region drove the country’s global ascent in exports, rolling out furniture, garments, shoes and other goods.
东莞位于中国南方珠江三角洲的核心位置。几十年来，这个地区推动着中国向全球出口量的上升，制造了从家具到服装和鞋等各种商品。
But the world’s workshop has been stumbling as cheaper production bases in Asia have gained ground. Last year, Chinese exports fell for the first time since the financial crisis — and for only the second time since the country’s economy began reopening to the outside world in the late 1970s.
但是，随着亚洲成本更低的生产基地逐渐形成，东莞的世界工厂已经面临困境。去年，中国的出口量自金融危机以来首次下降，这也仅仅是经济自从在20世纪70年代末向世界开放以来，中国出口量的第二次下降。
That position is likely to be further eroded by the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The United States-led trade agreement deepens American ties with Asian countries like Vietnam and Malaysia, but it excludes China.
中国在全球制造业的地位很可能会由于跨太平洋伙伴关系而受到进一步的削弱。这一以美国为首的贸易协议将深化美国与越南和马来西亚等亚洲国家的关系，但不包括中国。
The slump has created a tricky situation for the government.
经济低迷已给政府制造了一种棘手的局面。
Officials have encouraged phasing out low-end exports in favor of promoting the service sector and high-tech manufacturing. While newer and more dynamic companies are on the rise in China, the risk is that they won’t develop fast enough to offset the hollowing out of light manufacturing, which remains a shrinking but significant employer across the country.
官员们在鼓励逐步淘汰低端出口产品，同时在提倡服务业和高技术制造业。尽管更新、更充满活力的公司在中国呈上升的趋势，但风险在于，这些公司的发展速度不够快，不足以弥补轻工制造业的空缺，轻工制造业虽然在收缩，但仍是全国各地的主要用人单位。
Some traditional manufacturers have responded to the downturn by relocating farther inland or overseas, where costs are generally lower. Others are trying to reduce their reliance on export orders by establishing their own branded products for domestic sale.
一些传统的制造商对经济衰退的响应，是把工厂向内地或海外搬迁，因为这些更远地方的成本通常相对较低。其他制造商则努力在国内市场上建立自己的品牌产品，以减少对出口订单的依赖。
“This is an unfortunate pain being felt in traditional, older sectors,” said Louis Kuijs, the head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics. However, he added, the shift away from low-end, labor-intensive manufacturing “is an unavoidable part of the structural change that the economy is undergoing.”
“这种不幸的痛苦正在传统老行业中感受到，”牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)亚洲经济负责人高路易(Louis Kuijs)说。他补充说，但是，从低端的劳动密集型制造业转型，“是正在发生的经济结构性变化的一个不可避免的部分。”
Zhang Lin, 43, is trying to adapt to the shifting terrain.
43岁的张林（音）正在努力适应这种转型。
As a supervisor, Mr. Zhang, who left his home in western Sichuan Province 25 years ago to work in Dongguan shoe factories, once oversaw about 7,000 production-line workers at a Taiwanese-owned factory here. At their peak, before the financial crisis, factories in the city accounted for about one in every four pairs of athletic shoes sold globally, according to estimates from the Dongguan Shoe Industry Commerce Association.
25年前，张先生离开了他在四川省西部的老家，到东莞鞋厂打工，后来当了主管，他曾在这里的一家台资工厂负责监督大约7000名生产线上的工人。在金融危机之前的鼎盛时期，东莞工厂生产的运动鞋，大约占到全球出售运动鞋的25%，据东莞鞋业协会的估计。
But rising costs have weighed heavily on the shoemaking business. The Taiwanese factory where Mr. Zhang worked closed in 2012. He and several partners went out on their own, setting up a plant making shoes and leather boots for brands like K-Swiss and Durango. Today, Mr. Zhang’s factory employs about 700 people.
但是，成本上升也给制鞋企业带来了沉重的压力。张先生为其工作的台资工厂已于2012年倒闭。他和几个伙伴一起办了一家自己的工厂，为盖世威(K-Swiss)和杜兰戈(Durango)等品牌生产鞋子和皮靴。如今，张先生的工厂雇了大约700名工人。
While costs are rising, demand from overseas customers has also been declining. The company’s orders slipped to about 1.2 million pairs of shoes last year, down about 15 percent from 2014.
成本在上升，海外客户的需求也在不断下降。去年，公司订单上的鞋子减少了约120万双，与2014年相比，下降了15％左右。
