奥巴马对波士顿爆炸案须谨慎行事

In his speech at Boston Cathedral last week, Barack Obama did what a responsible president should do following a terrorist attack: he channelled the public’s reaction. “We do not hunker down,” he said. “We carry on.” It was a carefully judged oration. My colleague Christopher Caldwell even described it as possibly Mr Obama’s “finest hour”. Posterity will be the judge of that. We are still in the early days of the aftermath of Boston.

巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)在波士顿圣十字教堂的讲话中尽了一名负责任的总统在恐怖袭击之后应尽之事：他疏导了公众的反应。他说道：“我们不会趴下。我们将继续前行。”这是一篇经过慎密拿捏的演说。我的同事克里斯托弗•考德威尔(Christopher Caldwell)甚至称，这可能是奥巴马“最辉煌的时刻”。对此后人自有公论。我们仍处于波士顿爆炸案余波的早期。

Tragedies often crystallise a country’s political mood. On the upside, the Massachusetts police’s success in hunting down the culprits within four days was an extraordinary display of single-mindedness. The ending may have looked like overkill: 2,000 police surrounding a bleeding teenager in a boat. But they secured him alive and that will be invaluable. The same praise is owed to Boston’s first responders and to its public who displayed the kind of calm that makes emergencies manageable. It was one of Boston’s finest hours.

惨剧往往能使一国政治情绪变得清晰。从积极的方面说，麻省警察成功地在4天内缉拿凶手，展现了众志成城的非凡之处。最后的结局看起来有点小题大做：2000名警察包围一名躲在一艘游艇中流血的少年。但他们活捉了他，此举价值不可估量。波士顿的急救人员乃至公众也值得获得同样的赞誉，他们展现出的沉着使紧急事件没有失控。这是波士顿最辉煌的时刻之一。

On the negative side, the broader response – and that of much of the media – highlighted the US tendency to overreact to terrorism. Since September 11, US leaders have lulled people into a false sense of security. No more attacks on the homeland, they have been promised. On the one occasion that Mr Obama suggested otherwise – “we can absorb another terrorist attack”, he said in 2010 – he was pilloried for sounding fatalistic.

从消极的方面说，整体的反应——包括相当大部分媒体的反应——凸显出，美国对恐怖主义往往反应过度。9/11之后，美国领导人让人们产生错误的安全感。他们承诺，美国本土不会再遭到攻击。有一次奥巴马提出了不同的说法——2010年他曾说“我们能够承受另一场恐怖主义袭击”，结果人们嘲笑他听上去有些宿命论的意味。

Last week also underlined the US tendency to underreact to other kinds of threat. Three lives were tragically taken last Monday – and a police officer was killed on Thursday. The heartbreaking picture of Martin Richards, the eight-year-old victim, will be the face of what happened in Boston. No less distressing, however, were the 20 mugshots of the six and seven-year-old children who were gunned down in their Newtown classroom last December. In the midst of the Boston crisis last week, the US Senate scuttled the flimsiest attempt to tighten screening of gun buyers. So much for the response to Newtown.

上周还凸显出，美国对其他威胁往往反应迟钝。上周一，3条生命悲惨地被夺走，上周四又有一名警官被杀。8岁受害者马丁•理查兹(Martin Richards)令人心碎的照片将成为波士顿爆炸案的面孔。然而，去年12月在纽敦镇教室中被杀的20名6、7岁儿童的照片同样让人心痛。上周在波士顿危机期间，美国参议院挫败了试图对购枪者加强背景核查的微薄努力。对纽敦镇事件的回应就这样不了了之。

What will it be to Boston? Mr Obama could perhaps turn it into what he calls a “teachable moment”. In 1995, Bill Clinton converted the tragedy of the Oklahoma City bomb that claimed 168 lives into a political masterstroke. By focusing on the “black helicopter” ravings of Timothy McVeigh, the Oklahoma bomber, Mr Clinton blunted Newt Gingrich’s anti-government momentum in Washington. It was a crucial turning point in his fortunes. After 9/11, George W. Bush pushed through the Patriot Act and almost immediately began preparations for the invasion of Iraq 18 months later. No president before or since has achieved Mr Bush’s stratospheric post-9/11 approval ratings. Yet none had sunk so low by the time he left office.

波士顿爆炸案将产生什么结果？奥巴马或许可以使之成为他所说的“汲取教训时刻”。1995年，比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)把致168人死亡的俄克拉何马城爆炸案转变成了政治上的大手笔。克林顿抓住爆炸案凶手蒂莫西•麦克维(Timothy McVeigh)的“黑色直升机”疯言疯语不放，削弱了纽特•金里奇(Newt Gingrich)在华盛顿掀起的反政府势头。这是克林顿命运的关键转折点。9/11以后，乔治•W•布什(George W. Bush)推动通过了《爱国者法案》(Patriot Act)，并几乎立即开始为18个月后的入侵伊拉克做准备。9/11之后，布什的支持率之高，超过了历来任何一位总统，连奥巴马也从未超越。（不过，布什离任时支持率之低，也创下纪录。）

Last week’s Boston bombs were nothing like the scale of the Oklahoma or Twin Towers attacks. But to judge from the reaction so far, 4/15 will be a big date on the US political calendar. It was the first homegrown terrorist attack since 9/11. Mr Obama faces two challenges in the coming weeks. The first will be to fight attempts to use Boston to tarnish immigration reform, which is his most realistic shot at a big change in the next two years. A bipartisan group of eight senators last week came up with a draft bill that would provide a “pathway to citizenship” for the country’s 11m illegal immigrants.

上周的波士顿爆炸案比不上俄克拉荷马或者9/11袭击的规模。但从迄今的反应来看，4/15将成为美国政治日程上重要的一天。这是自9/11以后首例本土滋生的恐怖主义袭击。未来数周，奥巴马面临两项挑战。第一项是，打击试图利用波士顿爆炸案来诋毁移民改革的行为，而移民政策改革是他在未来两年做成大事的最现实机会。8名参议员组成的两党小组上周拿出一份法案草案，将为美国1100万非法移民提供“成为公民之路”。

It did not take long for Chuck Grassley, the senator from Iowa and an opponent, to link the bill to the Tsarnaev brothers’ refugee origins. The fact that Marco Rubio, the Florida Tea Party icon who is in the Senate “Group of Eight”, felt the need to disavow any link was worrying. If the bill’s opponents can staple “amnesty” to “terrorism” it may yet go awry. Both the Tsarnaev brothers entered the US legally and became naturalised citizens. On news of Tamerlan’s death, Ann Coulter, the conservative commentator, tweeted: “It is too bad Suspect No.1 won’t be legalised by Marco Rubio now.”

来自衣阿华州的参议员、反对人士查克•格拉斯利(Chuck Grassley)很快就把这项法案与察尔纳耶夫(Tsarnaev)兄弟的难民背景联系在一起。佛罗里达州茶党偶像、参议院“8人小组”成员之一的马可•鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)认为有必要与该法案撇清关系，这让人忧心。如果法案的反对者能够在“恐怖主义”上烙上“大赦”字样，该法案仍可能夭折。察尔纳耶夫兄弟都是合法进入美国的，弟弟已归化成为美国公民。在哥哥塔梅尔兰被击毙后，保守派评论员安•库尔特(Ann Coulter)在Twitter上发帖称：“1号嫌疑犯如今不会被马可•鲁比奥合法化了，这可真是糟糕至极。”

Mr Obama’s second challenge will be to ensure an appropriate security response to Boston. The hospitalised Dzhokhar Tsarnaev has yet to be formally interrogated. But the chances are that he and his brother were largely acting on their own initiative. As the Spanish and British can attest since the Madrid and London attacks of 2004 and 2005, homegrown terrorism is tougher to anticipate than plots from outside. The amateurism of last week’s bombs underscores how successful the US has been in preventing organised outside attacks since 9/11. Stepping up the search for potential lone wolves within presents a very different type of headache. It will require sensitivity.

奥巴马的第二项挑战将是确保对波士顿爆炸案做出恰当的安保回应。正在医院接受救治的焦哈尔•察尔纳耶夫(Dzhokhar Tsarnaev)目前还没有正式接受审讯。但他和哥哥很可能基本上是自发实施了这一爆炸案。正如自2004年和2005年马德里和伦敦爆炸案以来西班牙和英国能够证实的那样，国内恐怖主义比来自境外的阴谋更难防范。上周实施波士顿爆炸案炸弹的不专业，突显出自9/11以来美国在防范有组织的外来攻击方面有多么成功。加强对国内潜在“独狼”的侦查是一个非常不同的棘手问题。它需要敏感度。

Mr Obama’s most immediate task will be to defend the decision to give the surviving brother legal rights as a US citizen rather than treat him as an enemy combatant. The distinction might sound arcane at a moment such as this. But it would be a terrible precedent to reverse when suspicion about US Muslims is likely to be on the rise.

奥巴马最紧迫的任务将是为这一决定辩护：给予这个幸存下来的弟弟作为美国公民的法律权利，而不是把他定性为敌方战斗人员(enemy combatant)。在这种时候，这一区别听上去可能有点学究气。但在对美国穆斯林的猜疑可能加剧之际，“敌方战斗人员”将确立一个很难逆转的可怕先例。

So far Mr Obama has responded to the Boston attacks with balance and proportion. It is not hard to imagine how much higher the temperature would be were a different president in office. Mr Obama, more than anyone, will be aware of how fragile the mood can be.

迄今奥巴马对于波士顿爆炸案的回应还算适度。我们不难想象，如果在任的是另外一位总统的话，反应会有多么强烈。但奥巴马比任何人都清楚，民众的情绪有多么脆弱。

On Friday one of America’s largest cities awoke to something approaching martial law. It is unnerving to imagine what a bigger crisis might have entailed.

上周五，美国最大城市之一的人们一觉醒来，发现全城近乎全面戒严。想象一下比这更大的危机可能意味着什么，令人不安。