时事新闻:公司收入不增 股市能否上涨？

【英文原文】

Can RAlly Run Without Revenue?

As stock investors turn their focus to earnings prospects for the second half and 2010, they are zeroing in on one of the market's biggest challenges: lackluster corporate revenue.

The market barreled ahead this summer and is hovering near its high for the year, fueled in large part by stronger than-expected second-quarter earnings. But a significant driver of the good news was cost cutting. Many companies posted disappointing sales.

In the short-term, earnings prospects may remain favorable for the market. Aggressive expense control and modest inventory restocking could boost third-quarter numbers, while the fourth quarter has easy comparisons against an awful 2008 that will give the appearance of healthy profit increases. But in 2010, the ability of stocks to sustain or extend their advances will have to come from a revival in sales, strategists say. In an uncertain economic environment, that won't be an easy task.

'You can not simply cut costs forever to have sustainable earnings. You need revenues to grow them over time,' says Dirk Van Dijk, chief equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research. However, 'it's going to be really, really tough' to increase revenue in the current economy, he says.

For now, stock prices suggest many investors are comfortable knowing that at least the decline in profits has been halted.

Heading into September, a notoriously bad month for stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 8.75% for the year at 9544.20. That is just off from the best levels seen since early last November. Though trading volume has been light in recent days, the market has been able to hold on to a rally that sent the Dow industrials up 12% since mid-July and up 45.8% from the March 9 low.

According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., 46% of companies beat Wall Street's earnings expectations by a wide margin, but only 23% significantly bettered revenue forecasts. Sales among companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index fell 16% in the second quarter from a year earlier, following a 14% decline in the first quarter.

David Kostin, an equity strategist at Goldman, points to a decline in a key line item on corporate income statements known as 'selling, general and administrative expenses' otherwise known as SG&A. Included in SG&A are salaries and costs of doing business, such as travel or advertising.

SG&A plunged 6.4% in the second quarter from the year-earlier period, Goldman says. In contrast, in the last recession, SG&A fell just 0.2% and in 1991, it dropped 4.1%.

'There's been an unprecedented decline in overhead costs,' Mr. Kostin says.

A big part of the challenge for generating an upturn in sales is that consumers, whose spending has driven roughly 70% of economic activity in recent years, are hamstrung by a bleak job market. That was evidenced Friday by a weak reading on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan and government data showing incomes were flat in July.

This environment typically leads to disparate performances between sectors and stocks, according to strategists at Ned Davis Research.

In the initial stage of a recovery from a bear market, the stocks that have fallen the most tend to be the ones that rebound the strongest. 'After a bottom, the market shifts to more industry-specific and company-specific factors,' says Amy Lubas, senior equity strategist at Ned Davis.

Such differentiation will most benefit those companies that have both cut their costs and have the best prospects for revenue growth, says Goldman's Mr. Kostin.

Among S&P sectors, materials stocks posted the biggest decline in SG&A costs -- down nearly 10% -- followed by information technology. Energy companies, too, have cut costs significantly. In contrast, SG&A costs rose at telecommunications companies and fell only 1% at consumer staples names.

Mr. Kostin says the most likely sources for revenue growth are outside the U.S., where technology, energy and materials companies get the greatest percentage of revenue.

More narrowly, Brazil, Russia, India and China are likely to be the strongest performing economies, and, Mr. Kostin says, the best revenue prospects. Already, a basket of stocks that Goldman identifies as having the greatest business from those so-called BRIC nations has done 29 percentage points better than the S&P 500 this year.

Barry Knapp, equity strategist at Barclays Capital, favors industrials as a play on the cost-cutting binge. 'They've been cutting costs for nine years,' he says. 'That sector looks really well-poised for coming out of the recession.'

In addition, technology companies, which have lifted the Nasdaq Composite Index 29% this year, also look good on the cost cutting and revenue metrics, Mr. Knapp says. 'But once you get into the consumer discretionary, staples and services areas, it's not quite as good a story,' Mr. Knapp says.

Zack's Mr. Van Dijk says that short term there could be good earnings news for retailers. 'You have a bunch of retailers who have really cut their inventories way down, and if they do see any pickup at all, their turnover will zoom and that lowers their costs significantly,' he says, noting that already it is a group for which analysts have upgraded earnings forecasts.

Still, for retailers aimed at the middle-class, such as Macy's, J.C. Penney and Gap, the good news won't last long.

'They may be good for a trade, but they're a lousy long-term investment,' Mr. Van Dijk says. 'They just have too many headwinds against them.'

【中文译文】

随着股市投资者将重心转向下半年和2010年的盈利前景，他们将目光对准了市场上一个最大的挑战：企业收入的疲软。

市场今年夏季持续走高，目前正徘徊在全年的最高点附近，这主要是受强于预期的第二季度收益的推动。但这个好消息的重要推动力是成本的削减。许多公司发布的销售情况都令人失望。

在短期内，收益前景可能仍有利于市场上涨。严格的开支控制和适度的库存补充能够提高第三季度的业绩，而第四季度与2008年的糟糕业绩相比也将有一个良好的利润增长。但策略师说，进入2010年后，股票维持或扩大涨势的能力将取决于销售的复苏。在一个不确定的经济环境下，要做到这点并非易事。

Zacks Investment Research首席股票策略师凡戴克(Dirk Van Dijk)说，你不能永远只靠降低成本推动收益的持续增长。随着时间的推移，你要有收入的增长才行。不过他说，在目前的经济环境下要增加收入非常、非常的困难。

目前的股票价格表明，许多投资者都认为至少利润的下降已经停止了。

股市在9月份的历史走势都不太好。不过今年以来，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上涨了8.75%，至9544.20点。这只略低于去年11月初以来的最高点位。虽然近日交投清淡，但市场仍能延续反弹走势，自7月中旬以来已上涨了12%，较3月9日的低点更是上涨了45.8%。

据高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)称，46%的公司大幅度超过了华尔街的收益预期，但只有收入明显超过预期的公司只有23%。标准普尔500指数中公司的销售额比去年第二季度下降了16%，高于第一季度14%的降幅。

高盛股票策略师考斯汀(David Kostin)提到了公司利润表中明细栏中销售和管理费用的下降。包括在销售和管理费用中的包括薪资和业务成本，如差旅费和广告支出。

高盛称，第二季度的销售和管理费用比上年同期大幅下降了6.4%。与此形成鲜明对比的是，在上一次衰退中，销售和管理费用仅下降了0.2%，而1991年的衰退中，销售和管理费用下降了4.1%。

考斯汀说，间接成本出现了前所未有的下降。

实现销售好转难在就业市场的不景气严重打击了消费者的能力，近年来，消费者开支推动了大约70%的经济活动。密歇根大学(University of Michigan)上周五的报告显示消费者信心疲弱，政府数据也显示7月份收入持平，这些都证明了这一点。

市场分析和基金管理公司Ned Davis Research的策略师们认为，当前的形势通常会导致不同行业和不同股票出现分化。

在熊市复苏的初期阶段，跌得最狠的股票往往也是反弹最强劲的。Ned Davis的资深资产分析师卢巴斯(Amy Lubas)说，触底之后，市场会转向按行业和公司具体细分的因素。

高盛的科斯汀说，这样的分化对于既削减了成本、又拥有最好的收入增长前景的公司最为有利。

在标普各版块中，原材料类股的销售和管理费用降幅最大（近10%），其次为IT类股。能源公司也大幅削减了成本。相比之下，电信类公司的销售和管理费用出现上升，大宗消费品类仅下降1%。

科斯汀说，收入增长最有可能的来源是海外，因技术、能源和原材料公司收入很大一部分来自海外。

科斯汀说，更确切地说，巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国可能会是表现最好的经济体，也是收入前景最好的。高盛认为金砖四国业绩最好的一蓝子股票今年已经比标普500指数高出29个百分点。

Barclays Capital的资产分析师奈普(Barry Knapp)青睐削减成本成绩斐然的工业类股。他说，它们9年来一直在削减成本，看上去这个行业已经做好走出衰退的准备。

奈普说，除此而外，推动纳斯达克综合指数上涨29%的科技公司在削减成本和增加收入方面也做得不错，不过非必需消费品、消费品和服务行业的情况并不是那么好。

Zack的凡戴克说，短期内，零售商可能会有不错的收益。他说，有一些零售商减少了大量存货，如果经济好转，他们的营业额就会激增，成本也就会明显下降，他强调，分析师们已经上调了一些零售商的收益预期。

不过，对于Macy's、J.C. Penney和Gap等针对中产阶级的零售商来说，好消息可能不会持久。

凡戴克说，这些零售商作为一时的交易对象可能还不错，但却是糟糕的长期投资对象，它们面临着太多的不利因素。