中国正在设法驯服煤炭野兽

This week’s landmark agreement between the U.S. and China on limiting emissions of carbon dioxide marks a significant diplomatic milestone in the struggle against globAl climate change. The fact that the two largest sources of CO2 have finally agreed to do something about it should, in theory, give a boost to next year’s United Nations climate summit. Whether the actual terms of the deal—which calls for the U.S. to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26% to 28%, compared to 2005 levels, by 2025, and for China to cap its emissions by 2030—have a realistic shot at being met is another question.

上周，中美就限制二氧化碳排放达成重大协议，这在应对全球气候变化方面是一个里程碑式的外交事件。理论上，世界上最大的两个二氧化碳排放国最终同意就此采取行动将为明年的联合国气候变化峰会带来积极影响。按照协议，到2025年，美国的温室气体排放量将比2005年下降26-28%；到2030年，中国将实现温室气体排放零增长。不过，问题在于，这些目标能否真的实现。

On the U.S. side, Republicans emboldened by the midterm elections will work to block any attempt to fulfill America’s side of the bargain, which Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe, of Oklahoma, soon to be chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, called “a non-binding charade.”

美国方面，中期选举增强了共和党的实力。该党成员将阻止美国政府试图履行协议中的自方责任。即将担任参议院环境和公共工程委员会（Senate Environment and Public Works Committee）主席的俄克拉荷马州共和党参议员吉姆o英霍夫（Jim Inhofe）将中美之间的这份协议称为“毫无约束力。”

China’s challenge in meeting the terms of the bilateral agreement are not political but structural: simply put, to reduce emissions growth, China must reduce the size of its coal industry, which supplies some three-quarters of China’s electricity. That is no easy task.

就履行这份双边协议而言，中国面临的并非是政治难题，而是结构性挑战：简而言之，要降低温室气体排放增速，中国就必须压缩煤炭行业规模。而煤电约占中国目前发电量的四分之三，这绝不是一项轻而易举的工作。

But Beijing must take action, because the smog-choked nation can hardly stick with the status quo. The climate deal is part of a larger strategy to address China’s pollution crisis.

但中国政府必须采取行动，因为这个雾霾笼罩下的国家无法再安于现状。而这份气候协议正是中国应对污染危机宏图大略的一部分。

The costs of China’s heavy reliance on coal for power generation were highlighted again days before the deal with President Obama was announced, when a pair of researchers at the prestigious Tsinghua University released a study showing that around 670,000 people die prematurely every year as a result of air pollution from coal. Every ton of coal produced in China adds more than 286 yuan ($46) in environmental damage and health costs, reported Teng Fei, an associate professor at Tsinghua University. China produced nearly 4 billion tons of coal in 2013, according to the World Coal Association.

就在中美宣布签署协议前几天，知名学府清华大学两名研究人员所发布的一项报告显示，燃煤引发的空气污染每年都会造成约67万人过早死亡，这再次突出了中国严重依赖煤电所付出的代价。清华大学副教授腾飞指出，中国每生产一吨煤，就会产生286元人民币的环境和健康成本。而据世界煤炭协会（World Coal Association）的数据显示，2013年中国生产了近40亿吨煤炭。

The Tsinghua study follows a 2011 report by the World Health Organization, published in The Lancet, that estimated that 1.2 million people in China died in 2010 from diseases related to all forms of air pollution. China also has by far the deadliest mining industry in the world: One thousand forty-nine coal miners died in accidents in 2013, down 23% from the year before but still far more than any other country.

上述研究成果出炉前，世界卫生组织（World Health Organization）曾于2011年在医学杂志《柳叶刀》（The Lancet）上发表报告称，2010年有120万中国人死于各种空气污染引发的疾病。同时，中国还是世界上死于矿难人数最多的国家：2013年有1049名生产人员死于煤矿事故，虽比上年下降了23%，但仍远高于世界其他国家。

Mounting evidence of coal’s environmental damage comes as China’s slowing economy has reduced demand for electricity, creating an oversupply crisis for an industry that has known nothing but steady growth for the last three decades. China has reached “a very critical moment in the management of its coal resources, and in the history of the coal industry,” says Cao Xia, a professor of environmental law at Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, in China’s coal heartland, Shanxi Province.

就在经济增速放缓造成中国电力需求下降之际，体现煤炭污染环境的证据越来越多，这给30年来一直以稳定增长著称的煤炭行业带来了供给过剩危机。在中国产煤大省山西，山西财经大学环境法教授曹霞认为：中国在煤炭资源管理方面以及在煤炭行业发展史上已经到了“一个非常关键的时刻。”

The direct, domestic impacts of the nation’s massive coal industry, which produces and consumes about as much coal as the rest of the world combined, are added to the indirect, worldwide costs in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. No international program to combat climate change can succeed unless China slashes its burning of coal.

中国煤炭行业规模庞大，煤炭产销量几乎和全球其他地区的总和相当。除了在国内造成的直接影响，这个行业产生的温室气体排放还给整个世界带来了间接成本。除非中国削减煤炭消费量，否则任何应对气候变化的国际性方案都无法获得成功。

“The actions China takes in the next decade will be critical for the future of China and the world,” wrote Fergus Green and Nicholas Stern in a research paper for the Center for Climate Change Economics and Policy, in London. “Whether China moves onto an innovative, sustainable, and low-carbon growth path this decade will more or less determine both China’s longer-term economic prospects … and the world’s prospects of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions sufficiently to manage the grave risks of climate change.”

费格斯o格林（Fergus Green）和尼古拉斯o斯特恩（Nicholas Stern）在向伦敦气候变化经济和政策中心（Center for Climate Change Economics and Policy）提交的研究报告中写道：“中国在今后10年采取的行动对中国和全球的未来都很关键。在这10年里，中国能否实现创新和可持续的低碳增长将或多或少地决定中国的长期经济前景……也将决定全世界的温室气体减排幅度是否足以应对气候变化带来的重大风险。”

Facing mounting public outrage over air and water pollution, the central government’s actions to limit coal use have multiplied in recent months. The Airborne Pollution Action Plan, unveiled by the central government in September 2013, calls for a reduction of air pollution in the northern region surrounding Beijing by 25%, and 20% in the Yangtze River Delta.

随着公众对空气和水污染不满的渐增，近几个月，中国中央政府限制使用煤炭的力度倍增。2013年9月，中央政府发布了《大气污染防治行动计划》，目标是让京津冀地区细颗粒物浓度下降25%，长三角地区下降20%。

Already, strict limitations on coal use in major urban areas, including Beijing and Shanghai, are in place. Planning to cap total coal production at 4.1 billion tons as of 2015, the government said in October it will no longer approve new coal mining projects below 300,000 metric tons (330,000 short tons), effectively banning the small, unregulated mines that have contributed to the coal glut. Hundreds of small mines have already closed, and the government has also taken steps to restrict imports of “dirty” coal—i.e., coal with high levels of ash and sulfur. (Although China’s coal market is oversupplied, imports continue because domestic transport issues mean it’s often cheaper to purchase coal shipped from Indonesia or Australia than buy domestic coal from the northern provinces of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.)

包括北京和上海在内的主要城市已经对使用煤炭做出了严格限制。按照十二五规划，2015年中国煤炭产能将达到41亿吨。今年10月份，中国政府表示，将不再核准新建30万吨（约合33万净吨）以下的煤矿，这实际上封杀了那些造成煤炭供给过剩的小型不规范煤矿。数百个小煤矿已经关闭，中国政府同时采取措施限制进口“脏”煤，即含硫量和灰分高的煤炭（尽管中国煤炭市场已经供过于求，但受国内运输条件限制，购买印尼或澳大利亚煤炭要比购买山西和内蒙等国内北部省份的煤炭便宜，所以中国一直在进口煤炭）。

At the same time, though, China is embarking on a grandiose plan not to shut down the coal industry but to move it inland, away from the big cities of the coast and from the prying eyes of international environmental groups. As I reported for Fortune from Shanxi Province in April, coal producers, under the direction of the central and provincial governments, are building huge “coal bases” in the northwest provinces that will include large mines, power plants connected to coastal cities via gigantic high-voltage transmission lines, huge plants to convert coal to liquid fuel, and related facilities such as concrete plants and chemical plants.

与此同时，中国正在实施一项宏伟计划，其内容不是整体关闭煤炭行业，而是将其迁移到内陆，远离沿海地区大城市以及国际环保团体的挑剔目光。今年4月份我曾从山西向《财富》杂志发回过报道，在中央和省政府的指导下，煤炭企业正在西北省份建立大型煤炭基地。这些基地将包括大型煤矿、通过特高压输电线路和沿海城市相连的发电厂、大型煤制油工厂以及混凝土厂和化工厂等配套设施。

This huge migration and consolidation may well clean up the skies in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, thus reducing rates of respiratory disease and deaths linked to air pollution. It could also rationalize the coal industry, better matching supply to demand, and reduce China’s imports of foreign oil. What it won’t do is reduce the country’s overall carbon emissions; in fact, it could drastically increase them, as more coal gets burned and more carbon-intensive processes – particularly coal-to-liquids conversion – are expanded.

这项重大的迁移及整合计划可能会让北京、上海和深圳等城市的天空蓝起来，从而降低空气污染引发的呼吸道疾病发病率和死亡人数。这项措施还有可能理顺煤炭行业格局，让供需更加平衡，并减少中国的石油进口。但它无法降低中国的整体碳排放水平。实际上，此举可能大幅度提高中国的碳排放量，原因是燃煤数量的增多以及碳密集型生产工艺将得到更普遍的使用，特别是煤制油。

“We are very concerned” about the coal-base plan, says Ailun Yang, a senior associate with the World Resources Institute who focuses on energy issues in China. “Enforcing tougher air pollution standards along the coast will lead to shutting down coal plants, and create demand for a lot more gas. The western parts of China want to supply the gas by turning coal into gas. That process will be very, very bad for the world.”

世界资源研究所（World Resources Institute）重点关注中国能源问题的高级研究员杨艾伦（音译）说：“我们非常担心。在沿海地区执行更严格的空气污染标准意味着关闭燃煤发电厂，这将为天然气带来大量需求。中国西部地区想将煤转换成天然气并对外供应。这对全世界来说是一项非常不好的工艺。”

Headline writers often refer to China’s “addiction” to coal. The relationship might be better thought of as a bad marriage, where neither partner can afford to leave. China needs the coal industry to fuel its demand for energy, which will surely continue to rise as the economy grows (even at rates of 7% to 8% a year, rather than the red-hot 10% to 12% annually of the last decade) and the middle class expands. The coal industry, of course, requires rising demand to continue to grow, to generate returns on its huge capital investments of the last decade, and to provide jobs for the hundreds of thousands of people who work in coal mines, coal plants, and related industries. In Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, entire cities depend on coal production and processing.

新闻头条记者经常用“依赖上瘾”来形容中国与煤炭的关系。将此想象为一场失败的婚姻也许更为合适——在这里，双方谁也离不开谁。中国需要煤炭行业来满足国内能源需求。随着经济的增长（就算年增长率为7-8%，而不是过去10年中白热化的10-12%）和中产阶层的扩大，中国的能源需求必将继续上升。当然，煤炭行业也要依靠需求的不断扩大来保持增长，从而为10年来投入的大量资金提供回报，并通过煤矿、燃煤发电厂以及相关行业创造出数以十万计的就业机会。在山西、内蒙古和新疆，都存在着整座城市都依赖于煤炭开采和加工的现象。

Coal in China has created an economy within an economy, and reducing the size of the coal industry would result in massive unemployment across large swaths of the country. Notwithstanding China’s huge push on renewable energy and natural gas, it’s hard to see how this co-dependency will be broken any time soon.

煤炭行业已经在中国经济体系中自成一体。压缩煤炭行业的规模将造成大量人员失业。尽管中国正在大力推广可再生能源和天然气，但很难想象中国经济和煤炭的这种相互依存关系很快就会被打破。

That’s not to say there’s no hope. China’s overall energy intensity (the amount of energy required to produce a given unit of GDP) has gone down in recent years, as the export-led economy shifts toward higher-tech products and services. Most areas of the country are on track to meet or exceed energy-conservation targets for 2015, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (as reported by Reuters), and the rate of growth in energy use is expected to fall by half this year compared to 2013. According to China-based researchers for Greenpeace, the total amount of coal burned in the first three-quarters of 2014 was 1% to 2% lower than the same period a year earlier.

但这并不是说没有希望。近几年，随着中国的出口型经济向科技含量较高的产品和服务转移，中国的整体能源密集度（创造单位GDP所需的能源）已经下降。据路透社（Reuters）报道，国家发改委表示，中国大多数地区都将达到或者超额完成2015年节能目标；预计今年中国的能源消费增速将比2013年下降一半。绿色和平组织（Greenpeace）驻中国研究人员指出，2014年前三个季度，中国的燃煤总量比上年同期减少了1-2%。

“The data suggests the world’s largest economy is finally starting to radically slow down its emission growth,” wrote the Greenpeace analysts.

绿色和平组织的分析师们写道：“相关数据表明，作为全球最大的经济体，中国终于开始从根本上降低温室气体排放增速。”

Still, the coal beast on the mainland continues to grow. In October, just as the results of the Tsinghua University study of coal fatalities was being released, the national news agency Xinhua reported that a huge coal field, containing 12.8 billion tons, had been discovered in western Xinjiang. Mining has already begun.

不过，难以驾驭的中国煤炭行业仍在增长。今年10月份，就在清华大学公布上述研究结果的同时，新华社报道称新疆西部发现了储量128亿吨的大型煤田，而且已经开始采煤。