中国政府设定年经济目标

China said Friday it will seek to curb domestic debt growth and slash industrial overcapacity in 2014 without hurting growth, reaffirming a longer-term course laid out at a conclave of senior party officials last month.

中国周五表示，2014年将在保持经济稳定增长的同时控制国内债务规模增加和解决工业产能过剩问题，即重申了上月中共十八届三中全会制定的中长期改革目标。

In a statement at the end of a four-day meeting, the Communist Party's top leaders spelled out their priorities in managing the economy in the short term.

在为期四天的中央经济工作会议闭幕时发布的公告中，中共最高领导人列出了短期经济工作的主要任务。

The document read on state radio and television referred to the role of consumption as an economic driver, a Sign the leadership is looking to overhaul the economy and reduce the role of government investment.

公告提到了消费对拉动未来经济增长的作用，这一迹象表明中国领导人希望对经济进行重大改革，降低政府投资的作用。中国国有电台和电视台均对公告内容进行了报道。

The statement also referred to local government debt, which has worried policy makers, and overcapacity in key sectors such as steel, glass and cement.

公告还提到了两个问题，一是令决策者头疼的地方政府债务问题，二是钢铁、玻璃和水泥等关键行业产能过剩问题。

UBS China economist Tao Wang agreed with the leader's priorities in addressing the debt, but added, 'it's hard to tell if they can walk the walk because of the rapid development of shadow lending.' So-called shadow banking is lending by non-bank financial institutions, such as trust companies, securities firms and informal lenders.

瑞银(UBS)中国经济学家汪涛对中国领导人将解决债务问题作为首要任务表示赞同，但补充称，现在很难说这能否被付诸实施，因为影子银行业正快速发展。所谓的影子银行业是指通过信托公司、证券公司以及非传统贷款机构等非银行类金融机构发放贷款。

Since 2008, domestic debt has ballooned to 216% of GDP from 128% and could climb to 271% by 2017 if not corrected, according to Fitch Ratings. Economists note similar credit run-ups in countries in Europe, Asia and Latin America have ended in crashes, although few predict an imminent crisis in China.

据惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)的数据显示，自2008年以来，中国国内债务占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重已经由128%飙升至216%；若不加以控制，到2017年这一比例将进一步提高至271%。虽然经济学家们曾指出欧洲、亚洲和拉美一些国家类似的信贷猛增最终以崩盘告终，但很少有人预计中国短期内将面临危机。

The sharp rise in debt occurred when China began to combat the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, and banks ramped up funding of infrastructure, real estate and industrial projects. The credit growth has continued despite the recovery, as the shadow banking sector has increased lending in place of banks.

为应对2009年和2010年的全球金融危机，中国国内银行加大了对基础设施、房地产和工业项目的融资力度，导致中国债务水平激增。虽然中国经济有所回暖，但信贷仍在持续增长，因为影子银行业取代传统银行扩大了放贷规模。

The statement released by the Central Economic Work Conference, the meeting of top leaders, said that China's policy makers faced the 'core task' of ensuring stable growth amid continuing economic headwinds and troubles with domestic security.

中央经济工作会议发布的公告称，中国政策制定者在经济遭遇持续阻力且行业安全问题堪忧的情况下面临确保经济稳定增长的“核心任务”。

The conference comes about a month after a conclave of senior Communist Party officials, called the Third Plenum, set out a blueprint for longer-term reforms. On Friday, the leaders said they would maintain 'the spirit' of the plenum, but their focus was on tackling more immediate problems.

今年的中央经济工作会议召开前，中共刚刚召开过十八届三中全会，并在全会上为中长期改革制定了蓝图。中国领导人周五表示，将全面贯彻落实党的十八届三中全会精神，但会着重解决当前更突出的问题。

Local governments have been among the big drivers of debt, borrowing heavily to finance infrastructure and real-estate projects that are frequently mired in debt.

地方政府债务增加是造成国内总体债务水平上升的主要原因，地方政府因大量举债为基础设施和房地产项目融资而经常深陷债务困境。

The statement called resolving local debt problems 'an important economic task,' and said Beijing would 'strictly control the process by which governments' raise debt.'

公告称，要把控制和化解地方政府性债务风险作为经济工作的重要任务，严格政府举债程序。

Signaling that the central government didn't envision a large bailout, the statement added 'every level of government will be responsible for their own debt.'

公告还称，省区市政府要对本地区地方政府性债务负责任，这暗示中央政府并未考虑向地方政府提供大力援助。

Another reason for the debt buildup is borrowing by firms, often state-owned, despite huge production gluts in industries such as steel, solar energy components and shipbuilding. Over the past few years, as the economy has slowed, many companies are finding there isn't enough demand to keep all their production lines running or their workers employed. Often with the political support of local government, the firms have borrowed to avoid major layoffs.

中国债务增加的另一个原因是企业（通常为国有企业）借款，尽管钢铁、太阳能组件和造船等行业存在巨大的产能过剩。过去几年，随着经济增长的放缓，许多企业发现国内需求已不足以维持其所有生产线的运作和员工就业。通常是在地方政府的政治扶持下，企业才得以通过借款来避免重大裁员。

The leaders pledged to 'unswervingly resolve industrial overcapacity' -- a pledge that Beijing has made before and failed to carry out. For instance, steel capacity has increased in recent years even as factories have been underutilized.

中国领导人此次承诺要坚定不移化解产能过剩。中国政府此前也作过类似承诺，但未能付诸行动。例如，在钢厂没有进入全负荷运转的情况下，近年来钢铁产能仍有所增加。

But Ms. Wang, the UBS analyst, said the leaders signaled more resolve this time by adding that they would also focus 'on re-employment of people laid off from industries with overcapacity.' Beijing usually does all it can to avoid layoffs, which it fears could lead to social unrest.

但瑞银分析师汪涛表示，中国领导人这一次展示出了更大决心，因为他们还提到要重点抓好化解产能过剩中出现的下岗再就业工作。由于担心失业现象会引发社会动荡，中国政府通常会尽一切所能避免企业裁员。

Even so, the statement doesn't make clear how much risk Beijing is willing to take to tackle debt and overcapacity. The statement stressed the need for 'stable' growth. although a slowdown in credit is likely to lead to a slowdown in GDP growth.

即便如此，公告并未明确说明中国政府愿承担多少风险来化解债务和产能过剩问题。公告强调了维持经济稳定增长的必要性，但信贷的放缓可能会导致GDP增速放慢。

Economists have been looking for signs of whether China would maintain a 7.5% growth target for next year, unchanged from this year, or dial back the target to 7%. A lower growth target would signal that the leadership would press harder to resolve structural problems.

对于中国是将明年经济增长目标与今年7.5%的水平保持一致，还是会下调至7%，经济学家一直在寻找相关迹象。若增长目标被下调，将意味着中国领导人将加大结构性问题的解决力度。

But the document sent mixed messages. Ms. Wang thought the leadership was signaling a 7% target while, Royal Bank of Scotland analyst Luis Kuijs thought it indicated 7.5%.

但中央经济工作会议公告所传递出的信息并不清晰。汪涛认为中国领导层暗示的明年经济增长目标为7%，而苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)分析师高路易(Luis Kuijs)则认为是7.5%。