FT社评:再创中国的经济奇迹

Whichever way one looks at it, April really was the cruelest month for China’s economy. Industrial production, investment and retail spending were all much weaker than expected. With trade data also showing a sharp deceleration, it is no surprise that China’s premier, Wen Jiabao, has pledged that his government will do more to revive growth.

无论人们怎么看，4月都是中国经济最惨的一个月。工业产值、投资和零售支出都远远弱于预期。鉴于贸易数据也出现急剧减速，难怪中国总理温家宝承诺，他领导的政府将采取更多行动，力求恢复增长。

Optimists say there is no obvious reason to worry about China’s economy. According to the official statistics, in the first quarter of 2012 the economy expanded 8.1 per cent. While marking a slowdown compared with the end of 2011, such figures are the envy of almost every other country in the world.

乐观人士称，没有明显理由为中国经济忧心。官方数据显示，2012年首季中国经济同比增长8.1%。尽管这与2011年末季相比有所放缓，但这样的数据仍足以让世界上其他几乎所有国家艳羡。

The problem is that analysts are finding it increasingly hard to take official growth figures seriously. China has a history of manipulating statistics for political reasons and, as the economy slows down, the temptation to conceal the truth could grow even bigger. This is of course self-defeating. Obfuscating data is never a good way to build confidence in an economy, whatever its growth rates.

问题在于，分析师们正发现，他们越来越难以认真对待官方的增长数据了。中国在出于政治原因操纵统计数据方面是有过往记录的，而随着经济放缓，掩盖真相的诱惑力可能变得更大。这种做法当然是弄巧成拙的。在数据上遮遮盖盖，从来就不是构建各方对某个经济体信心的上策，无论其增长率是多少。

What Beijing should do instead is to find ways to reinvigorate its economy. To some extent, it is already doing so. Over the past fortnight it has reduced the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves. It also unveiled subsidies for the purchase of energy-saving white goods.

北京方面真正需要做的，是找到重振中国经济的途径。在一定程度上，它已经在这么做了。过去两周内，中国官方降低了银行存款准备金率，还公布了鼓励购置节能型白色家电的补贴政策。

These measures are unlikely to have a huge impact. And while the government has said it will do more, there is no reason to believe Beijing will embark on a monetary stimulus comparable to the one unleashed in 2008. As China is still struggling to contain the long-term impact of that credit frenzy, this would be a wise decision.

这些措施不太可能产生巨大影响。而且尽管中国政府已表示将采取更多行动，但人们没有理由相信，它将像2008年时那样，出台又一套巨额货币刺激方案。由于中国仍在艰难遏制那一波信贷狂潮的长期影响，这将是一个明智的决定。

In order to stimulate growth that is sustainable, the government should encourage consumer spending – cutting taxes or increasing the size of its welfare safety net. This could also help China rebalance its economy. While the weight of investment on national income is slowly decreasing, it remains too high.

要刺激可持续的经济增长，中国政府应当鼓励消费者支出，具体手段包括减税和扩大社保安全网。这还可能帮助中国实现经济的再平衡。在中国的国民收入中，尽管投资所占比重正在缓慢下降，但目前水平仍太高。

Another move would be to reform the banking sector so that credit flows to small and medium-sized enterprises. As we report in our analysis today, too many bank loans go to large, politically connected enterprises. Pilot projects such as the one conducted in Wenzhou should pave the way for larger-scale reform.

另一个举措将是改革银行业，使信贷流向中小企业。正如本报在今日的分析文章中所报道的，中国仍有太多银行贷款流向那些有政治后台的大企业。在温州开展的那种试点项目，应当为更大规模的改革铺平道路。

This year’s slowdown could be a seed for future troubles or a platform for greater successes. It will be up to Mr Jiabao and his successor to decide which is the case.

中国经济今年放缓，可能是未来麻烦的种子，也可能是更大成功的跳板。结果如何，要看温家宝和他的继任者的作为。译者:何黎