印度的非正统经济政策实验

Well before India’s surprise ban on using 86 per cent of its cash supply, rightwing circles were abuzz with speculation about prime minister Narendra Modi taking such a step to fight so-called black money.

在印度令人吃惊地禁止其86%的现金供应流通之前，右翼人士就在纷纷猜测印度总理纳伦德拉.莫迪(Narendra Modi)会采取如此手段打击所谓的黑钱。

Mainstream economists paid little heed to the chatter — deeming it too preposterous to take seriously, given the economic damage it would inflict.

考虑到此举将给经济造成的损害，主流经济学家对这种传闻几乎未给予什么关注，因为认为这种做法太过荒谬、不值得认真对待。

But with India now reeling from the acute cash crunch triggered by the decision to cancel its old Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes, many economists and observers are debating what other unorthodox economic policy experiments may lie ahead.

但现在，印度正在经历500卢比和1000卢比旧纸币被取消所引发的严峻现金短缺局面，许多经济学家和观察家正在讨论该国还可能实施哪些非正统的经济政策实验。

Mr Modi is expected to intensify his campaign against black money, with his next target likely to be property purchased with illicit wealth and not registered in the true owners’ names.

莫迪预计将加强他的反黑钱运动，他的下一个目标可能是使用非法财富购买并且未登记在真正所有者名下的房地产。

Speculation is rife that he is also seriously considering other dramatic and unusual reform measures — including possibly abolishing income tax and replacing it with a banking transaction tax.

有很多人推测，他还在认真考虑其他惊人的、非同寻常的改革措施，包括可能取消所得税并代之以银行交易税。

The long-term question is whether [demonetisation] represents a willing shift from conventional economic policy, Rajeev Malik, senior economist at CLSA.

长期而言的问题是，（去货币化）是否代表着一种远离常规经济政策的意愿。

After this particular step, I can’t rule out anything.

里昂证券(CLSA)高级经济学家拉杰夫.马立克(Rajeev Malik)说，在这个特定措施之后，我不能排除任何可能性。

The [ February] budget will pretty much tell us whether this is a starting point for something more unconventional.

（2月）预算将在很大程度上告诉我们，这是否是更加非常规的政策的起点。

Mr Modi has said nothing publicly about the origin of the idea of demonetisation — a measure virtually without parallel in contemporary economic history — but few believe New Delhi’s official narrative that it was simply acting on the central bank’s advice.

莫迪没有公开谈论去货币化的想法来源于哪里——当代经济史上几乎没有类似的政策——但很少有人相信新德里方面给出的、它只是在按照央行建议行事的说法。

Instead, the measure appears to be the brainchild of a little known Pune-based organisation,

相反，这项措施似乎是一个不甚知名的、位于浦那(Pune)的机构Arthakranti的智慧结晶。

called Arthakranti, which loosely translates as economic revolution.

Arthakranti的大致意思是经济革命。

This group is seeking radical changes to India’s revenue-collecting mechanism.

该机构正寻求彻底改变印度的财政收入机制。

Its volunteers — founded and led by former small businessman Anil Bokil — have lobbied politicians for years,

该机构由前小企业家阿尼尔.柏吉尔(Anil Bokil)创立并领导，其志愿者已游说政客们多年。

and their quest brought them into contact with Mr Modi back when he was still chief minister of Gujarat.

他们的诉求让他们与当时还是古吉拉特邦(Gujarat)首席部长的莫迪建立了联系。

Arthakranti advocates restricting cash use and replacing all of India’s taxes with a single, banking transaction tax of 2 per cent on every transaction through the financial system.

Arthakranti主张限制现金使用，并把印度的所有税项用单一的银行交易税代替，对每一笔经由金融系统的交易征税2%。

The recent removal of vast amounts of cash from the economy could, some analysts think, be the start of a sustained effort to realise Arthakranti’s vision.

一些分析人士认为，最近把大量现金从经济中清除出去，是实现Arthakranti愿景的持续努力的起点。

It seems to appeal to a lot of very radical thinkers, says Saurabh Mukherjea, chief executive of Ambit Capital.

这似乎吸引了许多非常激进的思想家，界线资本(Ambit Capital)首席执行官索拉布.慕克吉(Saurabh Mukherjea)说，

By reducing cash, you force everybody into the banking system, and every transaction gets taxed.

通过减少现金，你迫使每个人进入银行系统，每次交易都会被征税。

If you don’t spend, and don’t transact, you don’t pay tax.

如果你不花钱，不交易，你就不纳税。

Arthakranti activists contend their proposals would end the harassment of salaried employees —

Arthakranti的活动人士主张，他们的建议将终结腐败的所得税官员对工薪族的骚扰。

who account for most of India’s 12.5m income taxpayers — by corrupt income tax officers.

印度的1250万所得税纳税者中，工薪族占绝大部分。

They also believe the simplified system would curb pervasive evasion.

他们还认为，简化制度将遏制普遍的逃税行为。

People in India are not bothered about taxation.

印度人烦恼的不是税。

They have a problem with the hassles of taxation, but that will be reduced by this system, said Adarsh Dhavan, an Arthkranti volunteer.

他们烦恼的是税制的繁琐，但该制度将改善这一问题，Arthkranti志愿者阿达什.达万(Adarsh Dhavan)称，

If the base is broader, the percentage of taxation would be very less, and people would not mind paying it.

如果基数扩大，税率就会大幅降低，人们不会介意交税。

Brazil imposed a banking transaction tax for a decade from the late 1990s.

从上世纪90年代末开始，巴西推行了10年的银行交易税。

Yet later assessments concluded the taxes tended to drive transactions from the banking system, reducing efficiency and leading to higher interest rates.

不过后来的评估总结称，这种税往往使得银行系统的交易减少、效率降低并导致利率升高。

Still, the idea has already won influential supporters from the politically-powerful yoga guru Baba Ramdev to the former editor of Forbes India, R. Jaganathan.

不过，该想法已经赢得了很多具有影响力的支持者，从拥有强大政治影响力的瑜伽大师巴巴.拉姆德夫(Baba Ramdev)、到《福布斯》(Forbes)印度版前总编辑R.贾甘纳坦(R. Jaganathan)。

Mr Jaganathan, editorial director of the right-leaning Indian magazine Swarajya,

贾甘纳坦现任印度右翼杂志《自治》(Swarajya)的编辑主任。

recently wrote that income tax was not suitable for Indian culture, given its diversity and deep-rooted mindset that sees taxpaying as a matter of individual judgment and negotiation.

他最近写道，考虑到印度的多元化以及印度人认为纳税事关个人判断与商议这一根深蒂固的观念，所得税不适合印度文化。

Nobody in the world likes paying income taxes, but Indians are particularly loath to do so, he wrote recently.

世界上没人喜欢交所得税，但印度人格外抵触交所得税，他最近写道。

Mainstream economists are doubtful that Mr Modi will embark on dramatic tax policy changes in the February budget, given the disruption already caused by the cash ban.

考虑到突然取消大面值纸币已经造成了动荡，主流经济学家对莫迪是否将在2月的预算中着手进行税收政策的重大改革抱怀疑态度。

Indirect tax is also considered highly regressive — adding to the tax burden on the poor — and economists also warn it could erode manufacturing competitiveness.

间接税也被认为具有高度的累退性，会增加穷人的税务负担，同时经济学家还警告这可能会损害制造业的竞争力。