全球经济新兴市场货币汇率反弹
Emerging market currencies are benefiting from a “Goldilocks” globAl economy to rebound to their highest levels against the US dollar in a year.
新兴市场货币正受益于“金发姑娘般的”全球经济，兑美元汇率反弹至一年高点。
JPMorgan’s index of emerging market currencies has climbed 5.8 per cent so far in 2016, driven by the Brazilian real and South African rand, as developing economies reap the rewards of stable global growth, led by the US, without the imminent threat of rising interest rates.
受巴西雷亚尔和南非兰特驱动，摩根大通(JPMorgan)的新兴市场货币指数2016年以来已上涨5.8%。目前发展中经济体正受益于由美国引领的全球稳定增长，同时不存在迫在眉睫的加息威胁。
The UK’s decision to leave the EU and the Bank of England’s subsequent interest rate cut and asset buying have provided a further boost to emerging markets, increasing demand for riskier investments with higher returns as yields in developed markets fall to record lows.
英国决定离开欧盟以及英国央行(Bank of England)随后的降息和资产购买，为新兴市场提供了进一步提振，在发达市场的收益率降至创纪录低点之际，增加了对风险和回报都较高的投资的需求。
Credit analysts at Rabobank describe the gradual recovery of the US economy combined with external headwinds that have prevented the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates as a “Goldilocks scenario”, adding that in such an environment demand for risky assets was likely to continue to rise.
荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)把当前局面形容为“金发女孩般的情景”：美国经济逐步复苏，而外部不利因素阻止美联储(Federal Reserve)提高利率。他们补充称，在这样的环境下，对高风险资产的需求很可能会继续上升。
South Africa’s rand has appreciated 14.8 per cent against the US dollar this year, helped by a rising gold price and greater risk appetite, while Brazil’s real has rallied to its highest level against the dollar for more than a year amid optimism that interim president Michel Temer can curb the country’s budget deficit.
南非兰特今年对美元升值14.8%，得益于金价上涨和更大的风险偏好，而巴西雷亚尔对美元升至一年多来最高水平，目前各方乐观地认为，巴西临时总统米歇尔•特梅尔(Michel Temer)能够遏制该国的预算赤字。
The performance of emerging market currencies marks a reversal from last year, when the US dollar’s appreciation, falling oil prices and concerns about Chinese growth led international investors to recoil from riskier assets.
新兴市场货币的表现标志着逆转去年的局面，当时美元升值、油价下跌以及有关中国经济增长的担忧导致国际投资者回避高风险资产。
“Over the past five years, conditions for emerging markets have been tough,” said Dean Newman, head of emerging markets equity at Invesco Perpetual, although he added that factors such as favourable demographics, urbanisation and a growing middle class had remained favourable.
“过去5年里，新兴市场的状况一直很艰难，”景顺基金(Invesco Perpetual)新兴市场股票负责人迪恩•纽曼(Dean Newman)表示，尽管他补充说，各种有利因素，包括有利的人口结构、城市化和不断壮大的中产阶级，一直存在。
Now, the environment was more benevolent, said Devan Kaloo, head of global emerging markets at Aberdeen Asset Management. Although the US has reported better than expected jobs data, policymakers have been keen to stress they are in no rush to raise interest rates. “Barring any shocks, ‘lower-for-longer’ US rates should help support EM,” he said.
安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)新兴市场股票主管德万•卡卢(Devan Kaloo)表示，现在大环境变得更加友善。尽管美国报告了好于预期的就业数据，但政策制定者近来热衷于强调他们并不急于升息。“只要不出现任何冲击，‘在较低水平维持更久的’美国利率应该有助于支撑新兴市场，”他说。
