双语财经新闻 第12期:全球货币的新选择
The internationAl monetary system needs fundamental reform. It is not the cause of the recent imbalances and current instability in the global economy, but it certainly has been ineffective in addressing them. So a broad set of reforms is required, beginning with an immediate expansion of the current system of Special Drawing Rights (SDR), or money that can be issued by the International Monetary Fund. And here the Groupof 20 leading nations must take the lead.
John Maynard Keynes once proposed a global currency, the Bancor, to be placed at the centre of the internationsd monetary system. The idea never caught on. Instead we now have a system dominated by holdings of U.S. dollars. This has several disadvantages. The first is it creates a global recessionary1 bias during and after financial crises because it places the burden of adjusting to payments imbalances on nations which run a deficit2.
约翰_梅纳德?凯恩斯曾经提议在国际货币体系的核心位置创建一种全球货 币——“班科这种观点从未流行开来。相反，我们目前的体系是以持有美元为主 导的。这有几大缺点。首先，它会在金融危机期间及之后造成一种全球衰退倾 向——因为它让赤字国家承担了就支付失衡进行调整的负担。The second is the tension it creates, due to the use of a national currency, the dollar, as the global currency. This can lead to global volatility asa result of growing U.S. current account deficits. These deficits are necessary, for creating sufficient global liquidity, but they also generate excessive Indebtedness3, both external and internal. So if the U.S. were to shrink its deficit too quickly, a deficiency of supply of the global reserve currency could result
其次，当前体系会造成压力，因为它使用了一个国家的货币(美元)作为全球货 币。随着美国经常账户赤字日渐增长，这可能导致全球波动。就创造足够的全球流 动性而言，这些赤字是必要的，但它们也会造成过度的负债^一在国内及国际层面 皆是如此。因此,如果美国过于迅速地削减赤字’就可能导致全球储备货币供应吃 紧。
Responses to global financial instability creates the third problem, where developing countries have accumulated large reserves as “self-insurance” against a future balance of payments crisis. These protect them during crises, but also add to global imbalances.
对全球金融不稳定的回应引发了第三个问题一发展中国家累积了巨额储 备，作为应对未来国际收支危机的“自我保险”。这些储备在危机发生时能够提供保 护，但同时也加剧了全球失衡。In the late 1960s a more limited global currency was created: the SDRs, issued by the IMF when enough member countries agree. The largest such issue equivalent to $250bn, and suggested by the G20 in April 2009 was an enlightened response to the dramatic collapse4 in international private lending after the global financial crisis. It helped soften the negative impact of the crisis on growth.
20世纪60年代末，国际货币基金组织创造了一种更有限的全球货币——在获 得足够多成员国同意的情况下，发布了特别提款权(亦称纸黄金)。2009年4月，由 G20II议、国际货币基金组织发行的最大规模的纸黄金(相当于2500^美元），是对 全球金融危机之后国际私人信贷崩盘做出的明智回应，有助于减轻危机对增长造 成的负面影响。Now, in the same way, the global role of SDRs should be increased, both through new issues and a bigger role for the rights in IMF lending. New SDR issues could be introduced in times of declines in private capital flows or large falls of global commodity prices. These would increase the ability of current account deficit countries, such as Pakistan or Egypt, if they were hit by an external shock.
现在，以同样的方式提高纸黄金的全球地位，既通过发行新的纸黄金，也通过 提升纸黄金在国际货币基金组织贷款中所占的比重。国际货币基金组织可以在私 人资本流动下降、或全球大宗商品价格暴跌之际发行新的纸黄金。如果巴基斯坦或 埃及等经常账户赤字国家遭受外部冲击，上述发行将会增强它们的抵御能力。In practical terms the G20 should encourage the IMF to issue a significant amount of new SDRs during the next three years, up to a value of $390bn a year. Such a move would have a number of benefits. It would reduce the problem of recessionary bias, by allowing central banks to exchange SDRs for hard currency, such as dollars or euros, and use it to finance higher imports. It would partially replace countries need to accumulate reserves. Given its relatively small scale, more SDRs would also help to sustain and accelerate recovery of the world economy, without leading to inflationary pressures. And by reducing the need for countries to set aside foreign exchange reserves, it would also facilitate some reduction in global imbalances.
在实践操作中，G20应鼓励国际货币基金组织在未来3年发行大量的新纸黄 金，每年高达3900^美元。此举有多种益处。通过允许各国央行用硬通货(如美元或 欧元)来交换纸黄金，并以此为更高的进口融资，它将缓解衰退倾向的问题，还将在 一定程度上取代各国累积外汇储备的需求。鉴于发行规模相对较小,更多的纸黄金 还将有助于在不引发通胀压力的情况下，维系并加速全球经济的复苏。同时，通过 降低各国留出外汇储备的必要性，这还将有利于在一定程度上减轻全球失衡。New measures to increase the effectiveness of SDRs themselves are also needed. One way would be for the IMF to use these SDRs to finance lending to countries that need short-term financing, due to balance of payments constraints, as happened recently in Greece and Ireland. Eventually SDRs could become the main，or even the only, mechanism5 for IMF financing.
此外，还需要采取一些新举措,以提高纸黄金本身的效力。方法之一是国际货 币基金组织利用这些纸黄金，向那些由于国际收支方面的限制而需要短期融资的 国家提供贷款,近来希腊和爱尔兰就发生了这样的情况。最终,纸黄金可能会成为 国际货币基金组织的主要、甚至是唯一的融资机制。Further, when crises occur in many countries simultaneously, as happened, for instance, during the 1998 east Asian crisis, IMF lending could be totally financed by new SDR issues in unlimited amounts. If and when the world economy recovered or boomed, SDR issues could then cease, or even be reabsorbed. Thus the IMF would have a greater role in creating official liquidity, in a way that curbed6 both recessionary and inflationary trends at different times.
此外,当多个国家同时爆发危机时，例如1998年东亚危机的情况，国际货币基 金组织贷款可能完全由无限量的新发行纸黄金提供融资。如果当全球经济复苏或 出现繁荣时，可能会停止纸黄金发行，甚至收回一部分。这样,国际货币基金组织将 以一种在不同时期同时限制衰退和通胀趋势的方式，在创造官方流动性方面发挥 更大的作用。All of this would make a contribution to enhancing global stability, without altering in any fundamental way existing monetary arrangements. And the dollar would continue as the main currency for private transactions, making this change more acceptable to the U.S..
所有这一切都将有利于增强全球稳定，同时不会根本性地改变现有的货币安 排。美元将继续作为私营部门交易的主要货币，从而使这一变革更容易为美国所接The G20 showed its effectiveness in responding to the financial crisis. The question today is, with the passing of the worst and emergence of large divergences in perspectives, can the G20 again demonstrate the leadership the world needs? A swift expansion of the SDR system would show this continued leadership. More importantly, it would also ensure greater stability and more sustained growth in the world economy.
在应对此次金融危机中，G20显示出了自身的有效性。眼下的问题是，随着危 机最严重时期的过去、以及各方看法出现重大分歧，G20能否再次展示这个世界所 需要的领导力?纸黄金体系的迅速扩张，将展现这种持续的领导力。更为重要的是， 这还将确保全球经济更强的稳定性和更为持续的增长。
