数据 中国外储下降并非资本外逃所致

The unprecedented decline in China’s foreign exchange reserves is being driven more by an unwinding of the renminbi carry trade and Chinese companies paying off dollar debt than by panicked mainlanders desperately seeking ways to get money out of the country.

中国外汇储备史无前例的下降，更多地是由于人民币套利交易平仓及中国企业偿还美元债务，而不是由于陷入恐慌的中国人绝望地想办法把资金带出中国。

That at least is the finding of the Bank for InternationAl Settlements, which has analysed financial flows through the global banking system.

至少，这是国际清算银行(BIS)得出的结论，该机构分析了全球银行体系的资金流。

The analysis sheds light on the sharp fall in China’s FX reserves, which have declined to $3.2tn from a high of $3.99tn in June 2014, as the first chart shows.

这一分析揭示了中国外汇储备急剧下降的原因。如图一所示，中国外汇储备已从2014年6月3.99万亿美元的高点，滑落至3.2万亿美元。

“It’s not ordinary Chinese freaking out and saying ‘I need to get my money to the US as soon as possible’. That is not happening, they are not dumping domestic assets and fleeing the country,” says Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management.

安石投资管理公司(Ashmore Investment Management)研究主管简•德恩(Jan Dehn)表示：“并没有出现普通中国人大惊失色地说‘我必须尽快把钱送到美国’的情况。他们并没有在抛售国内资产并逃离中国。”

Bhanu Baweja, an emerging market strategist at UBS, agrees, saying: “We have argued that in worrying about China’s disappearing FX reserves the street was underestimating the degree to which the decline was being driven by an unwind of the carry trade and a reduction in external debt, both of which are finite.”

瑞银(UBS)新兴市场策略师巴努•巴韦贾(Bhanu Baweja)同意这种说法，他说：“我们曾指出，在担忧中国正在消失的外汇储备之时，华尔街低估了套利交易平仓和外债降低所导致的外储下降规模，而这两者的数量都是有限的。”

As a result, Mr Baweja argues that “China is not running out of FX reserves after all”.

因此，巴韦贾认为“最终中国不会耗尽外汇储备”。

The BIS analysis covered the third quarter of last year, a period during which Chinese FX reserves fell by around $285bn (although some of this will be due to the reduced valuation of reserves denominated in currencies such as the euro and yen, which fell against the dollar during the quarter).

国际清算银行的分析涵盖了去年第三季度，中国的外汇储备在这一时期内下降了大约2850亿美元（不过，这其中部分缩水要归因于以欧元和日元等货币计价的外储估值的下降，这些货币在该季度均相对美元下跌）。

It found that net cross-border loans to China fell by $175bn in the quarter, the largest decline on record, as the red line in the left-hand panel of the second chart shows.

该机构发现，如图二左侧小图的红线所示，该季度境外银行对华净跨境贷款下降了1750亿美元，是有记录以来的最大跌幅。

Some $12bn of this outflow was due to an increase in the level of China’s FX reserves deposited at banks outside the country.

这部分资金外流中，大约120亿美元是由于中国存在境外银行的外储规模增加导致的。

A total of $80bn, almost half of the remainder, appears to be driven by a reversal of the carry trade. Between 2005 and 2013, the steady appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar, allied to the higher yields available on Chinese bonds and deposits than US ones, encouraged companies and individuals to borrow in dollars and hold renminbi.

而余下资金外流的近一半——总计800亿美元——似乎是由套利交易逆转造成的。在2005年到2013年期间，人民币相对于美元的稳定升值（与中国债券和存款的收益率比美国高有关），促使企业和个人借入美元，再换成人民币资产持有。

The subsequent strengthening of the dollar against the renminbi has prompted many of these speculators to unwind these positions, as the middle panel of the above chart shows.

而之后美元对人民币走强，促使许多这类投机者对持仓进行平仓，如图二中间小图所示。

In response to the resultant diminished demand for renminbi deposits, banks outside China reduced their renminbi deposits with mainland banks by $80bn in Q3 2015, with half of these flows emanating from Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Macau and Singapore.

为应对由此导致的对离岸人民币存款需求的下降，2015年第三季度，境外银行把它们存在中国内地银行的人民币存款降低了800亿美元，其中一半降幅来自台湾、香港、韩国、澳门和新加坡。

A further $34bn of outflows stems from mainland Chinese companies paying down cross-border debt, the BIS found, a trend illustrated by the blue line in the left-hand panel above.

国际清算银行发现，还有340亿美元的资金外流源自内地中国企业偿还跨境债务，如图二左侧小图蓝线所示。

This trend is also likely to have been prompted by the dollar’s strengthening against the renminbi, which will have made this debt more expensive to service.

此外，这一趋势还可能是由于美元对人民币走强导致的，因为这会提高偿债成本。

In addition, Chinese companies reduced their net foreign currency debt to Chinese banks by $7bn in Q3, as shown in the right-hand panel above. Assuming the mainland banks squared their position with banks outside China, this will have contributed to the $175bn of outflows.

此外，如图二右侧小图所示，第三季度中国企业欠中资银行的净外币债务减少了70亿美元。假定中国内地银行相应结清与境外银行的头寸，那么这对前述1750亿美元的资金外流也作出了贡献。

Mr Dehn, who estimates that Chinese companies had a little over $800bn of foreign currency-denominated debt as of the middle of last year, says “when [companies] saw the two-way volatility in renminbi/dollar they thought ‘do I really want a naked dollar position here?’”, prompting businesses with little or no dollar revenues to start unwinding their FX exposure.

德恩估计，去年年中，中国企业以外币计价的债务略高于8000亿美元。他说：“见到人民币和美元间的双向波动时，企业会想：‘我真的想持有美元的裸头寸么？’”这种想法促使美元收入很少或没有美元收入的企业开始结清其外汇敞口。

Together, these factors explained $133bn of the $175bn of outflows apparent in the banking data.

加在一起，这些因素解释了银行业数据显示的1750亿美元外流中的1330亿美元。

Partial data suggest these trends continued in the fourth quarter of 2015, the BIS says. Flows from the unwinding of the carry trade slowed from $80bn in Q3 to $24bn in Q4, it found.

国际清算银行称，部分数据表明2015年第四季度延续了这些趋势。该行发现，套利交易平仓引起的资金外流从第三季度的800亿美元降低至第四季度的240亿美元。

However, data from Hong Kong for October and November suggests Chinese companies stepped up the rate at which they paid down their cross-border debt, while the contraction in onshore foreign currency loans accelerated from $7bn to $29bn in Q4, in net terms.

然而，香港10月和11月的数据表明，中国企业加快了偿还跨境债务的速度，同时境内净外币贷款的下降加快，从第三季度的下降70亿美元加快至第4季度的下降290亿美元。

“Persistent private capital outflows from China since June 2014 have led to two different narratives. One tells a story of investors selling mainland assets en masse, the other of Chinese firms paying down their dollar debt,” wrote Robert McCauley and Chang Shu of the BIS.

“自2014年6月以来中国持续的私人资本外流引起了两种不同的说法。一种是投资者正在集体抛售中国内地资产，另一种则是中国企业正在偿还它们的美元债务，”国际清算银行的罗伯特•麦考利(Robert McCauley)和舒畅表示。

“Our analysis favours the second view, but also points to what both narratives miss — the shrinkage of offshore renminbi deposits.”

“我们的分析支持第二种观点，但也指向了两种说法都遗漏的一点——离岸人民币存款的缩水。”

The BIS argues it was the shrinkage of these deposits that has led the offshore renminbi, commonly referred to as CNH, to trade markedly weaker than its onshore cousin, CNY, in recent months.

国际清算银行主张，近几个月，正是离岸人民币存款缩水导致离岸人民币(CNH)的走势明显弱于在岸人民币(CNY)。

Other analysts paint a broadly similar picture, although differences emerge.

尽管存在分歧，其他分析师也给出了大致相似的分析。

Haibin Zhu, an economist at JPMorgan, estimates that capital outflows from China totalled $870bn in the 18 months to the end of 2015. The largest driver of this, amounting to $620bn, was corporate balance sheet adjustment, he finds.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)经济学家朱海斌估计，截至2015年底的18个月里，中国的资本外流总额达到8700亿美元。他发现，其中最大的驱动因素是企业资产负债表调整，这导致了6200亿美元的外流。

This adjustment, primarily a result of a reduction in foreign currency-denominated loans and trade credit is, to Mr Zhu, largely due to the reversal of the carry trade. As such, he expects this process to slow as the unwinding of this trade runs its course.

在朱海斌看来，这种调整主要是外币计价贷款和贸易信贷减少的结果，很大程度上是套利交易逆转引起的。因此，他预计随着套利交易平仓的推进，这一过程会放缓。

In addition, according to Mr Zhu’s calculations, net portfolio flows were also negative over the 18-month period, to the tune of $16bn, as investment by Chinese entities in foreign stocks and bonds exceeded the flows in the opposite direction.

此外，根据朱海斌的计算，在这18个月的时间里，投资组合资金流也是净流出，总额为160亿美元，原因是中国实体对境外股票和债券的投资超过了反向的资金流。

However, this was more than offset by $193bn of net foreign direct investment flows, although this trend has weakened sharply since the middle of 2015, turning negative in the third quarter before a modest rebound to a net reading of +$8bn in Q4.

然而，1930亿美元的外国直接投资(FDI)净流入抵消以上净流出绰绰有余。不过这一趋势自2015年中以后已经严重减弱，在第三季度变为负值，到第四季度则小幅回弹至80亿美元的正值。

However, Mr Zhu regards the residual component he needs to balance his spreadsheet as, broadly, representing capital flight from the household sector.

然而，朱海斌认为，他的分析中剩下的一个因素大体上反映了家庭的资本外逃。

This “hot money” outflow picked up rapidly during the course of 2015, swinging from a net inflow of $12bn in the first quarter to outflows of $17bn in Q2, $106bn in Q3 and $168bn in Q4.

这种“热钱”流出在2015年迅速提速，第一季度还是热钱净流入120亿美元，之后就变成第二季度净流出170亿美元、第三季度净流出1060亿美元、第四季度净流出1680亿美元。

Mr Zhu attributes this to a “spike” in expectations of renminbi depreciation since August 2015. As such, he argues that “the key to stabilise capital outflows is to anchor renminbi expectations among Chinese households”.

朱海斌将这归因于2015年8月以来人民币贬值预期“急剧上升”。因此，他主张“稳定资本外流的关键是稳定中国家庭对人民币的预期”。

Mr Dehn believes the BIS analysis is positive for China, suggesting that the capital outflows will come to a natural end as the dollar-denominated corporate debt stock is brought down to a more sustainable level, particularly given that China is still generating a sizeable surplus on its current account.

德恩相信，国际清算银行的分析对中国是积极的，该分析显示资本外流会随着企业的美元计价债务存量降低到更可持续的水平而自然结束，尤其是考虑到中国依然在产生规模可观的经常账户盈余。

Although the BIS only identified $41bn of dollar debt repayment in the third quarter of 2015, Mr Dehn says “it looks like there was an acceleration in debt repayments in Q4. What we are hearing anecdotally is that they were quite substantial.”

尽管国际清算银行仅确认中国企业2015年第三季度偿还了410亿美元的美元债务，但德恩表示“看起来债务偿还在第四季度有一个加速。我们从坊间听到的传言表明它们相当可观”。

He adds: “We are seeing a similar trend in Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia and they have all said their reserves have started to rise again.”

他补充道：“我们看到泰国、菲律宾和印尼也存在类似的趋势，而这些国家都表示它们的储备开始回升。”