美联储 美国经济下行风险增加

Many Federal Reserve policymakers said they saw increasing risks facing the US economy as they assessed the impact of the market turmoil that has erupted in 2016 amid plunging commodity prices and confusion over China’s currency policies.

美联储(Fed)多名政策制定者表示，他们认为美国经济面临的风险日益增加。他们评估了在大宗商品价格暴跌以及各方对中国汇率政策感到困惑的背景下在2016年爆发的市场动荡的影响。

Minutes for the January meeting released yesterday showed that Fed policymakers were wary of rushing to premature conclusions about the implications of the month’s financial turbulence, but most agreed that the outlook had become more clouded and uncertain.

昨日发布的1月会议纪要显示，美联储政策制定者不愿对该月金融动荡的影响仓促做出过早的结论，但大多数人同意，经济前景已变得更为阴云密布和不确定。

Several argued that it would be “prudent” to wait for more evidence about the underlying strength of the economy and inflation before embarking on any further interest-rate increases, according to the record of the meeting on January 26-27. If the slide in shares, strong dollar and tighter financing costs persisted, the effects “may be roughly equivalent to those from further firming in monetary policy,” the record showed.

1月26日至27日会议的纪要显示，数名官员辩称，在进一步加息前等待有更多证据表明经济在根本层面的实力将是“审慎的”。记录显示，如果股市下跌、美元强劲和融资成本偏紧的状况持续，影响“可能大致相当于货币政策进一步收紧”。

The minutes lift the lid on a committee struggling to understand the reasons for and implications of the adverse changes in financial conditions in the US, as well as the extent to which they could unsettle the Fed’s plans for higher rates. A number of policymakers argued the magnitude of the adverse financial developments was “difficult to reconcile” with information on the US economy, which has revealed steady job gains.

会议纪要揭示了美联储竭力试图理解美国金融状况出现负面变化的原因和潜在影响，以及这些变化可能影响美联储加息计划的程度。多名政策制定者辩称，负面金融动态的规模“很难匹配”关于美国经济的信息，后者显示就业稳步增长。

“Participants judged that the overall implication of these developments for the outlook for domestic economic activity was unclear, but they agreed that uncertainty had increased and many saw these developments as increasing the downside risks to the outlook,” the minutes showed.

纪要显示：“与会人士判断，这些动态对国内经济活动前景的整体影响是不清晰的，但他们一致认为不确定性上升，许多与会人士认为，这些动态加大了经济前景下行风险。”

The mood within the central bank has shifted in the face of the stock market gyrations and commodity price falls that have struck global markets this year. Whereas Janet Yellen in December hailed the Fed’s decision to lift rates by a quarter point as emblematic of the progress the US economy has made since the financial crisis, the central bank chair presented a more cautious picture to Congress last week.

面对今年冲击全球市场的股市波动和大宗商品价格下跌，美联储内部情绪已经转变。尽管美联储主席珍妮特耶伦(Janet Yellen)去年12月将美联储加息25个基点的决定誉为美国经济自金融危机以来取得进展的标志，但上周耶伦向国会描绘了一幅更为谨慎的图景。

She did not back away from signalling further rate increases, but nor did she do anything to indicate a move was imminent, arguing that financial conditions had recently become “less supportive” of US growth.

她没有改变还会进一步加息的口风，但也没有暗示即将加息，而是辩称，近期金融状况对美国经济增长的“支持力度下降”。

That left intact market expectations that the Fed is set to do nothing with rates for many months to come. Traders see almost no chance of an increase on Wednesday, March 16, and indeed most are betting that the Fed stays on hold for all of 2016. China emerged as a particular worry, with a number of participants saying they were concerned about the “potential drag” on the US from the emerging market slowdown, even if cheaper energy costs could be a mitigating factor. Falling market-based inflation expectations also appeared to be spooking some officials.

这让市场依然预期，美联储在今后几个月不会对利率采取行动。交易员们认为3月16日的议息会议几乎不可能加息，的确，多数交易员押注美联储在整个2016年都会按兵不动。中国尤其令人担忧，许多参会者表示，他们担心新兴市场经济放缓对美国的“潜在拖累”，即便能源价格下跌可能成为一个缓解因素。基于市场的通胀预期不断下降，似乎也让一些官员感到不安。