美联储不急于退出经济刺激计划

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is in no hurry to raise interest rates.

华盛顿——美国联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve，简称美联储）并不急于提高利率。

The economic recovery has stayed on course in recent months, and the Fed’s policy-making committee said on Wednesday that it saw no reason to change its own plans, rejecting calls for a faster retreat from its long-running stimulus campaign.

最近几个月的经济复苏保持平稳，但美联储的政策制定委员会周三称，没有理由改变该机构的计划，这相当于否决了加速退出长期刺激行动的呼吁。

“There are still too many people who want jobs but cannot find them, too many who are working part time but would prefer full-time work, and too many who are not searching for a job but would be if the labor market were stronger,” the central bank’s chairwoman, Janet L. Yellen, said at a news conference.

美联储主席珍妮特·L·耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)在新闻发布会上称，“仍然有太多人想要工作却找不到工作，太多人想要全职工作却只能做兼职，太多人虽然没有在找工作，但如果劳动力市场更强劲，他们就会去找工作。”

As expected, the Fed said it would move to end its most recent bond-buying campaign after adding a final $15 billion in October to its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, according to a statement published after a two-day meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee.

其下属联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)在一个为期两天的会议后发表的声明显示，不出所料，美联储称将在10月份最后一次购买150亿美元国债和抵押债券之后，结束近期的债券购买计划。

The Fed also on Wednesday published a description of the plans for the next phase in its slow retreat from its policy to encourage economic growth, including some expected changes in the mechanics of monetary policy.

美联储周三还发布了缓慢退出刺激政策的下一阶段方案，包括预期中的货币政策机制变化。

But it added that it planned to continue the mainstay of its campaign, holding short-term interest rates near zero, for a “considerable time.” The phrase is generally understood to mean that the Fed does not intend to raise rates before the middle of next year. Walking a tightrope, Ms. Yellen emphasized both that a rate increase was not imminent and that the Fed could act sooner. The timing, she said repeatedly, would be determined by data on the actual course of the economy in the coming months.

但美联储还表示，将继续推行该政策的主要部分，在“相当长的时间里”，使短期利率保持在接近零的水平。外界普遍认为，这个表述意味着美联储不打算在明年年中前上调利率。耶伦如同走钢丝般保持着平衡，她既强调不会很快上调利率，又声称美联储可能会提早行动。她多次表示，具体时间将由未来几个月真实的经济数据决定。

“That really is so important for market participants to keep in mind,” she said.

“市场参与者要记住这一点，这十分重要，”她说。

Bond investors, the Fed’s primary audience, drove up yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond to 2.6 percent. Stock markets fell sharply in the moments after the Fed released its various statements, then rose sharply, then called the whole thing off. The S.&P. 500-stock index ended the day up 0.13 percent at 2,001.57.

债券投资者——美联储的主要听众——把基准10年期国债的收益率推高到了2.6%。在美联储发表了多项声明之后，股市大幅下挫，然后迅速反弹，恢复了之前的水平。标准普尔500指数收于2001.57点，上涨了0.13%。

The Fed appeared to be playing for time, delaying decisions about its next steps for as long as possible as it grapples with the limits of its ability to improve economic conditions. Fed officials downgraded their expectations for growth in 2015 in forecasts published at the same time as the policy statement, suggesting that they had once again overestimated the strength of the recovery.

美联储似乎在争取时间，在应对自身改善经济状况能力的种种局限的同时，尽可能地推迟有关未来行动的决定。在与政策声明同时发布的预期报告中，美联储官员下调了对2015年的经济增长预期，这意味着他们此前又一次高估了复苏的强度。

Officials now expect the economy to grow from 2.6 to 3 percent next year, compared with June forecasts for growth of 3 to 3.2 percent.

官员们目前预计，2015年的经济增速在2.6%到3%之间，而6月份的预期为3%到3.2%。

Despite the disappointing results, officials have generally concluded this is not a reason for the Fed to increase its efforts, but instead evidence that the potential output of the American economy has been permanently reduced by the Great Recession and by long-term problems like an aging population and reduced innovation.

尽管这些数据令人失望，官员们普遍认为，这不能成为美联储扩大行动的理由，而是证明了大衰退和人口老龄化及创新能力下降等长期问题，已经给美国的经济产出潜能造成永久性的伤害。

If the Fed pushes too hard, unsustainable growth could eventually generate faster inflation. If it stops pushing too soon, however, damage that could have been repaired by additional stimulus may last indefinitely: Many people who could have found jobs might never return to the work force.

如果美联储采取过多行动，不可持续的增长可能最终导致通胀水平加速上升。如果过早地停止采取行动，本来可以由更多刺激政策所修复的破坏就有可能永久地存在下去：许多本来能找到工作的人可能永远无法重新就业。

Ms. Yellen spent much of her news conference on Wednesday avoiding questions about this balance, often taking considerable time to say very little.

周三，在新闻发布会的大部分时间里，耶伦避免回答有关如何平衡的问题，经常用了很长时间却没说出什么内容。

Still, simply by holding steady, the Fed is prolonging its effort to improve economic conditions, and supporters of the campaign applauded.

然而，美联储用保持稳定的方式，延长了改善经济状况的努力，行动的支持者对此表示赞同。

“Kudos to the Yellen Fed for not signaling a more hawkish stance in an economy that still needs their support,” wrote Jared Bernstein, a fellow at the Center on Budget Policy and Priorities and a former economic adviser to Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “When it comes to economic policy makers still trying to do something big to help the macroeconomy, the Fed’s the only game in town.”

“美联储没有释放在经济方面采取更强硬态度的信号，值得称赞，美国经济仍然需要他们的支持，”预算与政策重点中心(Center for Budget and Policy Priorities)研究员、副总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)的前经济顾问杰瑞德·伯恩斯坦(Jared Bernstein)写道。“在经济政策制定者中，美联储是唯一仍旧在设法采取重大举措来帮助宏观经济的。”

Critics warned — as they have for several years — that the Fed was doing too much, with potential consequences including inflation and financial instability. The House on Wednesday passed a Republican bill intended to limit the Fed’s flexibility by requiring it to adopt a rule for making monetary policy, and to explain its deviations. The measure was not expected to progress in the Democrat-controlled Senate.

批评人士警告称——多年来他们一直有这样的警告——美联储干预得太多，可能会带来通货膨胀及金融动荡等后果。众议院在周三通过了共和党的一项法案，该法案要求美联储为货币政策的制定引入一套规则，违背规则是需要做出解释，以此限制美联储的灵活性。外界认为，由民主党人控制的参议院不会通过该法案。

The Fed committee acted by a vote of 8 to 2. Charles I. Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and Richard W. Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, argued that economic conditions had improved sufficiently for the Fed to signal it could begin to retreat more quickly.

美联储委员会通过投票做出以上决定，投票结果为8比2。费城联储银行( Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)行长查尔斯·I·普罗索(Charles I. Plosser)、达拉斯联储银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)行长理查德·W·费希尔(Richard W. Fisher)辩称，经济状况已经大幅改善，美联储可以发出信号，表明该机构可以更加快速地撤出。

“The growing dissent in voting reflects the increasing disagreement amongst the F.O.M.C. that the Fed chair has been trying to iron out, regarding how much more accommodation the economy still needs to a sustain a robust recovery,” said Michael Dolega, senior economist at the TD Bank Group.

道明银行集团(TD Bank Group)资深经济学家迈克尔·多莱加(Michael Dolega)表示，“投票显示的不同意见反映出，联邦公开市场委员会内部，在美国经济需要多少宽松政策才能维持强劲的复苏状态方面出现了越来越多的分歧，美联储主席试图消除分歧。”

Yet the dissent also obscures the extent of broad agreement within the committee about the course of monetary policy. Of the 17 officials who participate in the policy-making meetings (some of whom do not hold votes this year), all but two predicted that the Fed would raise rates before the end of 2015.

但这种分歧也遮掩了一个事实，即该委员会内部就货币政策的方向达成广泛共识。在参加决策会议的17名官员（其中一些人今年没有参与投票）中，只有两人认为，美联储会在2015年底前提高利率。

The central bank also affirmed that it planned to maintain its bond holdings, by replacing matured bonds, until after it starts to raise interest rates. It said that it then planned to allow its holdings to dwindle naturally, without asset sales.

美联储还证实，该机构计划通过到期债券的再投资来继续持有债券，直到开始提高利率。美联储表示，他们计划在不进行资产出售的情况下，自然而然地减少债券持有量。

The Fed issued a similar exit plan in 2011, only to find that the economy disappointed its expectations. A government report on Wednesday offered a reminder that the economy remains weak. The Fed regards 2 percent annual inflation as the healthiest pace for the economy, but inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose just 1.7 percent in the 12 months ended in August — and the Fed prefers a separate measure that shows even less inflation than the price index.

美联储在2011年提出了类似的退出计划，结果发现，美国的经济状况辜负了他们的期待。周三发表的政府报告提醒了我们，美国经济依然疲弱。美联储认为2%的年通货膨胀率对于美国经济来说是最健康的水平，但截至8月，根据消费者物价指数计算的通货膨胀率在过去十二个月中只上升了1.7%，美联储倾向于另一项指数，该指数显示的通货膨胀率甚至更低。

Moreover, the forecasts of Fed officials published on Wednesday showed that most now expect inflation to remain below 2 percent during 2015.

除此之外，美联储官员在周三公布的预测显示，大多数人现在认为2015年的通货膨胀率将维持在2%以下的水平。

Nonetheless, Ms. Yellen suggested the Fed had done what it could.

尽管如此，耶伦表示，美联储已经竭尽所能。

“We have been at zero for a very long time,” she said. “In a general sense I think we have been lower for longer than many standard policy rules would suggest.”

“我们在很长时间里将利率维持在零的水平，”她说。“从一般意义上来说，我认为与很多标准政策规定相比，我们在比较长的时间里维持了较低的利率。”

The internal debate is now between officials, led by Ms. Yellen, still willing to wait a considerable time before raising interest rates, and those who want to move sooner.

美联储内部存在争论，以耶伦为首的一方仍旧愿意等待相当长的时间再提高利率，另一方则希望快速行动。