美联储明年最多可能加息四次 Economists see up to 4 more Fed rises following Wednesday's ex

The Federal Reserve is set to follow a much-anticipated interest rate rise this week with two to four more increases next year, leading economists say.

领先经济学家们表示，美联储(Fed)在本周备受期待的加息之后，明年还会有两到四次加息。

Markets are bracing themselves for the first US rate rise in almost 10 years on Wednesday. A Financial Times poll of 51 top economists highlights the stakes as any increase would have profound consequences for the world economy, particularly emerging markets.

市场正准备迎接本周三美国近10年来的首次加息。英国《金融时报》对51名顶级经济学家的调查突显出这次加息事关重大，因为任何加息都将对世界（尤其是新兴市场）经济产生深远影响。

While the Fed’s previous September forecasts pointed to four rises of a cumulative 100 basis points next year, markets have priced in a more gradual tightening process, because of doubts over the US economy’s capacity to weather tighter monetary policy and potential turbulence abroad.

尽管美联储在之前的9月预测中指出，明年将会进行4次、累计100个基点的加息，但由于怀疑美国经济承受紧缩后货币政策以及国外潜在动荡局势的能力，市场计入更为渐进的紧缩进程。

Chinese officials have acknowledged Fed rises would increase pressure on the renminbi and contribute to outward flows of capital, an outlook shared by many other developing economies. The European Central Bank’s chief economist, meanwhile, told the FT his institution stood ready to respond if the Fed’s actions increase global borrowing costs.

中国官员承认，美联储加息将会让人民币承压，加剧资本外流，其他许多发展中经济体也有同样预期。与此同时，欧洲央行(ECB)的首席经济学家向英国《金融时报》表示，如果美联储加息增加了全球借贷成本，欧洲央行准备做出回应。

The Fed has gone to great lengths to prepare the markets for a quarter-point rise at this week’s meeting — a move expected by all but one of the economists surveyed. But there is no such consensus over how high interest rates will ultimately go.

美联储竭力让市场为本周会议加息25个基点做好准备——受访经济学家几乎全都预计美联储本次将加息25个基点，只有一人例外。但关于最终加息到多高的利率，各方没有这样的共识。

Among those polled, 24 per cent expected two rises next year of 25 basis points each, 39 per cent expected three rises and 30 per cent forecast four rises. Overall, the median projection in the FT poll is for the Fed to lift rates by 75 basis points in 2016 and a further 100 in 2017.

受访经济学家中，24%预计明年加息两次，每次25个基点，39%预计加息3次，30%预计加息4次。整体而言，英国《金融时报》调查的预测中值是，美联储将在2016年加息75个基点，在2017年还会加息100个基点。

On the margins, two economists expect the Fed to lift its benchmark rate by as many as 300 basis points over the next two years. One cautions the central bank may only increase rates once more after December — by just 25 basis points — over the next 24 months.

比较极端的是，有两位经济学家预计美联储将在今后两年加息300个基点。还有一位经济学家告诫称，美联储可能在12月以后的24个月里只会加息一次，而且仅仅加息25个基点。

Fed chair Janet Yellen has suggested that moves will be gradual, but it is not clear whether there will be formal guidance to that effect in the Fed statement.

美联储主席珍妮特耶伦(Janet Yellen)暗示，加息将是渐进式的，但尚不清楚美联储的声明会不会就这一点提供正式指引。

Several economists warned the Fed’s ability to increase rates would be constrained by the effect of a slowdown and dollar appreciation against other currencies. Overall, they put the odds of a technical recession in the next two years at roughly 15 per cent and the probability that the Fed would have to cut rates back to zero at 20 per cent.

数位经济学家警告称，美联储加息能力将受到经济放缓和美元兑其他货币升值影响的限制。整体而言，他们认为今后两年发生技术性衰退的几率大约为15%，美联储不得不重新降息至零的可能性是20%。