特朗普现象突显民主的迷失 Trump's rise shows how democratic processes can lose their way
While comparisons between Donald Trump and Mussolini or Hitler are overwrought, Mr Trump’s rise does illustrate how democratic processes can lose their way and turn dangerously toxic when there is intense economic frustration and widespread apprehension about the future. This is especially the case when some previously respected leaders scurry to make peace in a new order — yes, Chris Christie, I mean you.
尽管把唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)与墨索里尼(Mussolini)和希特勒(Hitler)进行对比是有些过度紧张了，但是特朗普的崛起确实显示了，在面临经济挫败和人们普遍畏惧未来的情况下，民主进程会失去方向并产生危险的毒性。特别是在一些之前受人尊敬的领袖在新秩序下匆匆“倒戈”的情况下——没错，克里斯•克里斯蒂(Chris Christie)，我说的就是你。
The possible election of Mr Trump as president is the greatest present threat to the prosperity and security of the US. I have had a strong point of view on each of the last 10 presidential elections, but never before had I feared that what I regarded as the wrong outcome would in the long sweep of history risk grave damage to the American project.
特朗普当选美国总统的可能，是美国的繁荣和安全目前面临的最大威胁。在过去10届总统大选中，我每次都有强烈观点，但是从来没有像现在这样担心，在历史长河的层面上，我眼中的错误结果可能会对整个美国“项目”造成严重损害。
The problem is not with Mr Trump’s policies, though they are wacky in the few areas where they are not indecipherable. It is that he is running as modern-day man on horseback — demagogically offering the power of his personality as a magic solution to all problems — and making clear that he is prepared to run roughshod over anything or anyone who stands in his way.
问题不在于特朗普的政策，尽管即使在极少数领域他的政策并非完全不知所云，那些政策也是奇葩的。真正的问题是，他就像是现代的牛仔——以蛊惑人心的方式，把他的张扬个性吹嘘为解决一切问题的神奇妙方——还明确表明，他会碾平一切妨碍他的人和事。
Mr Trump has already flirted with the Ku Klux Klan and disparaged and demeaned the female half of our population. He vowed to kill the families of terrorists, use extreme forms of torture and forbid Muslims from coming into our country. Time and again, he has claimed he will crush those who stand in his way; his promised rewrite of libel laws, permitting the punishment of The New York Times and Washington Post for articles he does not like, will allow him to make good on this threat.
特朗普已然和3K党(Ku Klux Klan)关系暧昧，并且蔑视及贬低女性。他誓言要追杀恐怖分子的家人，采用极端的酷刑方式，并且禁止穆斯林进入我国。特朗普一再声称，他将碾碎那些妨碍他的人；他对于重写诽谤法律的承诺——允许他因为《纽约时报》(New York Times)和《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)发表了他不喜欢的文章而惩罚它们——可以让他兑现这一威胁。
Lyndon Johnson’s celebrated biographer, Robert Caro, has written that while “power doesn’t always corrupt … [it] always reveals.” What will a demagogue with a platform like Mr Trump’s who ascends to the presidency do with control over the National Security Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation and Internal Revenue Service? What commitment will he manifest to the rule of law? Already he has proposed that protesters at his rallies “should have been roughed up”.
林德•约翰逊(Lyndon Johnson)的一流传记作者罗伯特•卡罗(Robert Caro)曾写道，尽管“权力并不总是带来腐败……但（它）总能暴露本质。”当一个煽动者拥有了与可能成为美国总统的特朗普一样的平台，控制了国家安全局(NSA)、联邦调查局(FBI)和国税局(IRS)，他会做什么？他会对法治展示什么承诺？特朗普已经提议，在他的集会上出现的抗议者“应该吃点苦头”。
Nothing in the way Richard Nixon campaigned gave him a mandate for keeping an enemies list or engaging in dirty tricks. If he is elected, Donald Trump may think he has such a mandate. What is the basis for doubting that it will be used?
当年理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)在竞选时也没有要求获得把政敌列入黑名单或采用肮脏伎俩的授权。如果特朗普当选，他可能会认为自己有这样的授权。有什么理由怀疑他不会动用这种授权吗？
To be sure there are precedents for Mr Trump in American politics — such as Joe McCarthy, George Wallace, and Huey Long. Just as Mr Trump does, each mined the all-too rich veins of prejudice, paranoia and excess populism that lie beneath American soil. Yet even at their highest points of popularity, none of these figures looked like plausible future presidents. One shudders to think what President Huey Long would have done during the Depression, what President Joe McCarthy would have done at the height of the cold war, or what President George Wallace would have done at the end of the turbulent 1960s.
没错，美国政治舞台上出现过特朗普这样的先例——比如约瑟夫•麦卡锡(Joseph McCarthy)、乔治•华莱士(George Wallace)和休伊•朗(Huey Long)。就像特朗普一样，他们都挖掘了美国社会表层之下隐藏的偏见、偏执和过度民粹。不过，即使在人气最高的时候，他们中也没有任何一人看起来有成为美国总统的可能。即使是想一下休伊•朗总统在“大萧条”时的可能做法、约瑟夫•麦卡锡总统会在冷战时可能推行的政策、或者乔治•华莱士会在动荡的1960年代末可能采取的举动，都会让人不寒而栗。
My Harvard colleague, Niall Ferguson, suggests that William Jennings Bryan is the right precursor for Mr Trump. This comparison seems unfair to Bryan who was a progressive populist but not a thug, as evidenced by the fact that he ended up as Secretary of State in the Wilson Administration. Trump’s election would threaten our democracy. I doubt that democracy would have been threatened if Bryan had beaten McKinley.
我在哈佛大学(Harvard)的同事尼尔•弗格森(Niall Ferguson)提出，威廉•詹宁斯•布赖恩(William Jennings Bryan)是特朗普的前身。对于布赖恩来说，这样的对比似乎是不公平的——他是一位进步的民粹主义者，但不是暴徒，他最终成为威尔逊政府的国务卿，就说明了这一点。特朗普当选将威胁我们的民主体制。当年如果布赖恩打败了威廉•麦金莱(William McKinley)，民主会受到威胁吗？我对此感到怀疑。
Robert Kagan and others have suggested that Trump is the culmination of trends under way for decades in the Republican party. I am no friend of the Tea Party or of the way in which Congress has obstructed President Barack Obama. But the suggestion that Mr Trump is on the same continuum as George W. Bush or even the Republican congressional leadership seems to me to be quite unfair.
罗伯特•卡根(Robert Kagan)等人认为，特朗普是共和党数十年来种种趋势的巅峰。我对茶党(Tea Party)没什么好感，也不喜欢国会阻挠巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统的方式。但是，一些人认为特朗普是乔治•W•布什(George W. Bush)、甚至共和党国会领袖的延续，我认为这种看法似乎相当不公平。
Even the possibility of Trump becoming president is dangerous. The economy is already growing at a sub-2 per cent rate in substantial part because of a lack of confidence in a weak world economy. A growing sense that a protectionist demagogue could soon become president of the United States would surely introduce great uncertainty at home and abroad. The resulting increase in risk premiums might well be enough to tip a fragile US economy into recession. A concern that the US was becoming protectionists and isolationist could easily undermine confidence in many emerging markets and set off a financial crisis.
即使是特朗普成为总统的可能性都是非常危险的。美国经济增速已经低于2%（在很大程度上是由于人们对低迷的世界经济缺乏信心）。如果人们日益认为煽动保护主义的人有望很快成为美国总统，这无疑会在国内外引发极大的不确定性。由此带来的风险溢价很可能足以将脆弱的美国经济推入衰退。对于美国将付诸保护主义和孤立主义的担忧，很容易损害人们对很多新兴市场的信心，触发一场金融危机。
The geopolitical consequences of Donald Trump’s rise may be even more serious. The rest of the world is incredulous and appalled by the possibility of a Trump presidency and has started quietly rethinking its approach to the US accordingly. The US and China are struggling over influence in Asia. It is hard to imagine something better for China than the US moving to adopt a policy of “truculent isolationism”. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, a central element in our rebalancing toward Asia, could collapse. Japan would have to take self-defence, rather than reliance on American security guarantees, more seriously. And others in Asia would inevitably tilt from a more erratic America towards a relatively steady China.
特朗普当选总统带来的地缘政治后果可能更为严重。世界其他地区对特朗普成为美国总统的可能性感到难以置信并且不寒而栗，并已据此开始悄悄反思其对美国的姿态。美国和中国正在争夺在亚洲的影响力。对于中国来说，很难想到有什么比美国转而采取“好斗的孤立主义”政策更好的局面了。美国重返亚洲的核心元素《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)可能就此坍塌。日本可能不得不更认真地考虑自卫措施，而不再依赖于美国提供的安全保障。亚洲其他国家会不可避免地由更为反复无常的美国转向相对稳定的中国。
Mr Trump’s rise goes beyond his demagogic appeal. It is a reflection of the political psychology of frustration – people see him as responding to their fears about the modern world order, an outsider fighting for those who have been left behind. If we are to move past Trumpism, it will be essential to develop convincing responses to economic slowdown.
特朗普的崛起不仅是因为他蛊惑人心的感染力。它反映出政治上的沮丧心理——人们认为他回应了他们对当今世界秩序的恐惧，认为他是一个为那些被抛弃的人出头的局外人。如果我们要超越“特朗普主义”，就必须找出应对经济放缓的可行办法。
The US has always been governed by the authority of ideas, rather than the idea of authority. Nothing is more important than to be clear to all Americans that the tradition of vigorous political debate and compromise will continue. The sooner Donald Trump is relegated to the margins of our national life, the better off we and the world will be.
美国一贯受到思想权威（而非权威思想）的治理。相比让所有美国人明白活跃政治辩论和妥协的传统将会继续，没什么其他事情更重要。唐纳德•特朗普越快被排挤到国家生活舞台的边缘，对美国乃至整个世界就越有利。
