铁矿石价格反弹 Iron ore futures buoyed by steel export hopes

Iron ore futures in China rose to a five-week high yesterday, recovering from a recent fall on expectations that Beijing’s moves to weaken its currency will help boost steel exports by the world’s largest producer.

中国铁矿石期货价格昨日涨至5周高点，从最近的下跌行情反弹，原因是市场预期北京方面让人民币贬值的举动将有助于提振全球最大钢铁生产国的钢铁出口。

The rise in iron ore prices also followed a chemical blast in the port city of Tianjin, which has disrupted imports.

另一个因素是，港口城市天津的化学物质爆炸导致铁矿石进口中断。

Iron ore futures for January delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose nearly 4 per cent to Rmb388.5 a tonne. Ore with 62 per cent iron content for immediate delivery to China rose 40 cents to $56.20 a tonne, according to an assessment from The Steel Index.

大连商品交易所(Dalian Commodity Exchange) 1月交割的铁矿石期货价格上涨近4%，至388.5元人民币/吨。据钢铁指数公司(The Steel Index)评估，中国进口的含铁量62%的铁矿石现货上涨40美分，至56.20美元/吨。

Iron ore, the main ingredient in steelmaking and a critical source of profitability for several leading mining houses, including BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, has rallied over the past month, after hitting a seven-year low of $44.10 in early July.

铁矿石是炼钢的主要成分，也是必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等多家主要矿商的关键利润来源。自7月初触及44.10美元/吨的7年低点以来，过去一个月铁矿石价格出现上涨。

China’s central bank this week engineered the biggest fall in the Chinese currency since the mid-1990s. That should help steel shipments, according to analysts.

本周，中国央行策划了自上世纪90年代中期以来的人民币汇率最大跌幅。分析师称，人民币贬值将有助于钢铁出口。

“If China continues to raise exports of steel, this would require more imported iron ore to produce, and thus iron ore could be a net beneficiary of renminbi devaluation,” brokers CLSA said. “Though this would partially be offset by steel production cuts to counter Chinese exports in other countries.”

“如果中国继续增加钢铁出口量，那将需要进口更多铁矿石来炼钢，因此铁矿石可能成为人民币贬值的净受益者，”经纪商里昂证券(CLSA)称，“尽管这将被其他国家为应对中国出口而削减钢铁产量的举动部分抵消。”

The European steel industry body Eurofer said yesterday there may be “very real competitiveness impacts” for European steel companies due to Chinese steel imports that will now be even cheaper, Reuters reported.

据路透社(Reuters)报道，欧洲钢铁业组织——欧洲钢铁联盟(Eurofer)昨日称，由于现在中国钢铁出口价格将会更低，欧洲钢铁公司可能将面临“非常真切的竞争影响”。

China’s steel capacity is around 1.2bn tonnes, according to JPMorgan, more than three times its level a decade ago and nearly double its size from 2008.

据摩根大通(JPMorgan)表示，中国钢铁产能在12亿吨左右，是10年前的3倍多，较2008年的产能规模增加了近一倍。

Since domestic demand has been weak, much of that steel has made its way into global markets. The government has said it hopes to shift some of the overcapacity to countries along the Silk Road and fellow emerging market countries.

由于国内需求疲软，中国钢铁产量的相当大部分进入了全球市场。中国政府称，希望将部分过剩产能转移至一带一路沿线国家以及其他新兴市场国家。

China’s domestic iron ore is considerably more expensive than overseas supply, meaning the country is likely to continue to rely on the seaborne market even with the devaluation. The country now consumes more than 70 per cent of the world’s seaborne iron ore.

中国国内铁矿石的价格显著高于海外供应的铁矿石，这意味着，即便是在人民币贬值的情况下，中国也很可能会继续依赖于海运市场。如今中国消化世界海运铁矿石的70%以上。

The chemical blast at the port city of Tianjin was also supportive of prices. Miner BHP Billiton said shipments and port operations had been disrupted.

天津发生的化学物质爆炸也对铁矿石价格形成支撑。矿业公司必和必拓称，天津港的运输及港口作业已经中断。