中国房地产债券为何受追捧 Why are Chinese high yield property bonds outperforming

Traditionally, investing in Asian high-yield bonds has not been for the faint-hearted. Yet in recent years a new normal emerged; just about any bond delivered strong returns. Such has been one of the results of the extremely accommodative policies of major central banks that have flooded the markets with liquidity, thereby dulling the perception of risk.

传统上，亚洲高收益债券不是为胆小者准备的投资品种。然而近年出现一种新常态；投资任何一种债券都带来巨大回报。这是全球主要央行实行极端宽松政策的后果之一；这些政策让市场充斥着流动性，从而降低了人们对风险的感知。

However, all this changed last year when steep falls in oil and commodities prices, together with US high-yield fund redemptions, led to a liquidity shakeout in the high-yield bond market. The new reality rewarded a discriminating investment strategy – with the Chinese property sector’s high yield bonds returning gains of 20 per cent, even as other market segments such as Indian issuers and Chinese industrials experienced single-digit losses.

然而，去年这一切都改变了。石油和大宗商品价格大幅下跌，加上美国高收益债券基金赎回，导致高收益债券市场的流动性出现重大洗牌。这一新现实有利于一种区别对待的投资战略：中国房地产行业高收益债券的价格涨幅达到20%，即便其他市场板块（比如印度发行人和中国工业企业）遭遇个位数下降。

This steep divergence might appear surprising. It is well known that the metals, mining and energy sectors across Asia experienced significant pain last year, but Chinese property also had its share of problems from an inventory glut to a default by Kaisa Group, a property developer.

这种明显分化或许令人意外。公所周知，去年，全亚洲的金属、采矿和能源行业承受了巨大的痛苦，但中国房地产行业也受困于不少问题——从库存过剩到开发商佳兆业(Kaisa Group)违约。

The explanation for this curious dichotomy is that in the often opaque, Asian high-yield market, destiny is only partly defined by fundamentals.

这一奇怪分化的原因在于，在往往不透明的亚洲高收益债券市场，命运仅仅在一定程度上是由基本面因素决定的。

Investors need to consider not just movements in default risk but also the interplay of both the supply and demand of bonds. A good starting point with high-yield is to remember that in contrast to equities, downside protection and not earnings is the primary concern.

投资者需要考虑的不仅是违约风险的变动，还有债券的供需状况。要了解高收益债券市场，一个良好起点是记住：与股票不同，投资者主要关心的是下行风险防护，而不是发行人的利润。

It is not whether a company makes its profit numbers but whether we can be sure the issuer will avoid default that matters most, because a default would wipe out any pick up in yield through the loss of principal. Or put another way, we worry about whether the glass will stay half full and not if it will ever be filled to the top.

最重要的不是一家公司能否赚到利润，而是我们能否确定发行人将会避免违约，因为收益率上升无法弥补违约造成的本金损失。换言之，我们担心的是玻璃杯中的水能否保持半满状态，而不是杯子会不会装满水。

This means that high-yield analysis tends to be company rather than sector or country specific as it comes down to accurately pricing the risk of each individual company’s likelihood of default.

这意味着，对高收益债券的分析通常针对个别公司，而不针对具体行业或国家，因为关键是对每家具体公司的违约可能性进行风险定价。

At the most basic level this question can come down to whether a bond issuer has access to new financing. A distressed company in a sector with buoyant investor demand and liquidity is usually in a retrievable situation. But if liquidity support is withdrawn or unlikely, prices can drop fast as defaults become much more likely.

从根本上讲，这个问题可以归结为一家债券发行人能否获得新融资。在投资者需求旺盛、流动性充沛的行业，一家陷入困境的公司通常能够恢复过来。但是，如果流动性支持被抽掉或不太可能存在，由于违约可能性大幅增加，债券价格可能会迅速下跌。

China’s offshore bond market, the largest in Asia, is a good example of the large role fluctuations in bond liquidity can play in performance. Last year saw a large swing in sentiment after the default by Kaisa Group aroused fears that the state was withdrawing its implicit support for property developers. However, in the event, the default proved to be an isolated case.

亚洲规模最大的中国离岸债券市场，是证明债券流动性波动可能对行情发挥重要作用的很好例子。去年，佳兆业集团违约之后市场情绪产生巨大波动，引发了有关政府开始撤销对开发商隐形支持的担忧。但结果那起违约被证明是孤立事件。

The main reasons for this included the fact that most Chinese property companies were replete with capital, having issued bonds in 2014 and 2015, meaning the repayment of principal would not happen for another three to five years. Another key reason was the re-opening of the domestic bond market to property developers, following a six-year hiatus.

其中的主要原因包括如下事实，在2014年和2015年发行债券（这意味着未来三至五年内不必偿还本金）之后，中国房地产企业资本充足。另一个关键原因在于，在中断6年后，国内债券市场重新对房地产开发商开放了。

This boosted the sector as it enabled credit profiles to be enhanced as corporates accessed cheaper funds onshore. It also helped developers to better match debt and revenue liabilities in renminbi.

这提振了房地产行业，因为开发商可在国内融入成本更低的资金，增强其信用状况。这还有助于开发商更好地匹配债务和营收（因为两者都是人民币）。

A secondary impact was that as Chinese developers raised some $27bn domestically, they also stopped issuing offshore bonds and even redeemed some. This led to a tightening in supply, helping to push up prices. The sector also benefited from liquidity inflows as various investors were attracted by its relative safe haven status.

一个次要的影响是，中国开发商在国内融资270亿美元的同时，还停止发行、甚至赎回了部分离岸债券。这导致离岸债券供应趋紧，帮助推高了价格。房地产行业还受益于资金流入，因为其相对安全的避风港地位吸引了形形色色的投资者。

Domestically, after steep falls in Chinese equities last summer, investors switched into bonds, as they sought more defensive exposure. At the same time, traditional Asian high-yield investors also chased Chinese property names as just about every other sector was facing distress due to the ongoing commodity unwind.

从国内来看，在去年夏季中国股市大跌之后，寻求防御性敞口的投资者转投债券。另一方面，传统亚洲高收益债券投资者也在追逐中国房地产企业的债券，因为大宗商品下跌导致几乎其他所有行业都面临困境。

Taken together, Chinese developers enjoyed a liquidity sweet spot, with dwindling offshore supply coupled with new investment inflows. Another reason for the dominance of China property is it towers over other countries and sectors in Asian high-yield universe.

综合上述各种因素，随着离岸供应逐渐减少和新资金流入，中国开发商受益于一个流动性“甜蜜点”。中国房地产行业受宠的另一个原因在于，在亚洲高收益债券市场，它的境况好于其他国家开发商和行业。

Elsewhere the high-yield universe is concentrated largely in mining, energy and property spread across South East Asia, Australia and India. In these sectors few corporates have been left unscathed by the steep commodity slowdown and currency weakness.

在亚洲其他地区，高收益债券发行方主要集中在东南亚、澳大利亚和印度的矿业、能源和房地产行业。在这些行业，未曾受到大宗商品价格暴跌和本币贬值伤害的企业非常少。

The outlook for 2016 is clouded by elevated distress and tightening liquidity as investor interest in refinancing becomes extremely selective. Here the liquidity X factor in much of Asian high-yield is more likely to leave a sting on the downside as defaults rise. Once again, Chinese property developers remain out-performers so far.

2016年的前景被困难加剧和流动性趋紧的阴云所笼罩，因为投资者对再融资的兴趣变得极端挑剔。随着违约的增多，很大一部分亚洲高收益债券的流动性状况更有可能在市场下行时加剧跌势。到目前为止，中国房地产开发商保持着领跑者地位。