对特朗普说不 Trump's well earned trouncing in Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s electorate deserves a vote of thanks. It is too early to declare that the Republican tide has turned — or that Donald Trump’s weaknesses are finally being exposed. They should always have been obvious. But Mr Trump’s defeat to Ted Cruz offers a glimmer of hope that the electorate may finally be awakening to his flaws.

威斯康星州的选民值得感谢。现在就宣告共和党的潮流已经转向——或者说唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的弱点终于暴露——还为时过早。他的弱点应该一直都是显而易见的。但特朗普败在特德•克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)手中让人心生一线希望：选民对他的种种缺点可能终于醒悟过来。

It would take an improbable series of results in the coming weeks for Mr Cruz to overturn Mr Trump’s delegate lead. Even then, a Cruz nomination would offer Republicans no greater hope of regaining the White House. But Mr Trump is a preposterous candidate. The longer this fissiparous Republican primary goes on, the more voters see what a President Trump would stand for. It is not a pretty sight.

要推翻特朗普在党代表票数上的领先优势，克鲁兹将需要在未来几周获得一连串不太可能的大胜。即使这能做到，提名克鲁兹也不会让共和党有更大胜算夺回白宫。但特朗普是一个荒谬的候选人。共和党这场四分五裂的初选拖得越久，选民们就越能看清“特朗普总统”将代表着什么。那不是一幅众人乐见的画面。

As ever, Mr Trump is happily supplying the evidence himself. In the past fortnight his stream of gaffes has become a torrent. By unfavourably contrasting the looks of his wife, Melania Trump, to those of Heidi Cruz, his opponent’s spouse, Mr Trump provoked women to turn out against him in even greater numbers. It also gave Mr Cruz, no Mr Nice Guy, the chance to humanise his message.

与以往一样，特朗普本人乐于提供证据。过去两周里，他一次接一次的失言已经从小溪变成洪流。他把自己的妻子梅拉尼亚•特朗普(Melania Trump)的相貌与对手的配偶海蒂•克鲁兹(Heidi Cruz)进行对比，促使更多女性站到他的对立面。这也使本来并非“好好先生”的克鲁兹有机会让自己具有人情味。

Likewise, Mr Trump’s assertion — promptly withdrawn — that women who undergo abortions should be punished sparked outrage even from the most militant opponents of abortion. It added to the impression that Mr Trump is making things up as he goes along. The same applies to his advice that Japan and South Korea should develop their own nuclear deterrents — a comment that elicited unusual rebukes from Tokyo and Seoul. Then he threatened that a Trump-led US would walk away from Nato. And so on.

同样，特朗普有关堕胎的女性应该受到惩罚的断言（即便很快被收回）激起民愤，就连最激进的反对堕胎者也表示愤慨。这件事强化了这样一种印象，即特朗普一直在即兴胡扯。他发表的有关日本和韩国应该自行发展核威慑的建议同样是奇葩——他的“高见”招致东京和首尔不同寻常地作出驳斥。接着特朗普又威胁称，由他主政的美国将舍弃北约(Nato)。诸如此类。

It is quite possible that Mr Trump will shake off these doubts and go on to win the more important primary that will take place in New York state later this month. A large chunk of the Republican electorate is impervious to Mr Trump’s general election weaknesses. By voting for him, they intend to send a stark message to the Republican establishment.

当然，特朗普很有可能将摆脱这些疑虑，在本月晚些时候赢得更重要的纽约州初选。很大一部分共和党选民对特朗普在大选中的弱点无动于衷。他们投票给他是要向共和党体制内阶层传递一个刺耳的信息。

It is also still likely that Mr Trump will head into the Republican convention in July with the largest share of delegates behind him. But the result in Wisconsin exposed two of Mr Trump’s biggest vulnerabilities. First, Mr Cruz’s campaign is light years ahead of Mr Trump in terms of organisation. This could make a big difference as the contest turns increasingly to a ground game where the ability to garner more delegates will be decisive. The race is turning into a logistical war of attrition that will accentuate Mr Cruz’s strengths.

同样很有可能的是，在7月共和党举行全国代表大会时，特朗普将拥有最大比例的党代表票支持。但是威斯康星州的初选结果暴露了特朗普的两大脆弱性。首先，克鲁兹的竞选团队在组织方面遥遥领先于特朗普。随着这场竞赛日益变成一场短兵相接的角力（其间争取更多党代表票的能力将起到决定性作用），这一点可能带来很大的不同。目前两人之间的竞赛正在演变成一场比拼后勤实力的消耗战，这有利于克鲁兹发挥自己的强项。

Second, the US media have scented blood. Stung by criticism they have provided Mr Trump with too much free airtime — about $2bn worth according to one estimate — the television networks are keen to make amends. Mr Trump’s celebrity appeal still attracts lots of eyeballs. But TV executives are discovering that his downfall could also make for compelling viewing. Megyn Kelly, the Fox News anchor whom Mr Trump has repeatedly denigrated, has seen her ratings soar. Having lived by the sword, Mr Trump may also die by it.

其次，美国媒体闻到了血腥味。批评人士曾称，媒体给了特朗普太多免费上镜时间（有一个估计是这些时间价值约20亿美元）。受此刺痛，各大电视网络都热衷于作出弥补。特朗普的名人魅力仍然吸引大量眼球。但电视高管们现在发现，他的下坡路也可能提振收视率。特朗普一再诋毁的福克斯新闻(Fox News)主播梅根•凯利(Megyn Kelly)现在收视率飙升。在依靠刀剑声名鹊起之后，特朗普也可能“死”于刀剑之下。

That, at least, is the hope among Mr Trump’s opponents. The reality is still likely to be messy. In all probability, Republicans will be unable to avoid a contested convention in July.

至少，这是特朗普的对手的期待。现实仍然很可能是乱七八糟的。最有可能的情况是，共和党将无法避免7月份的“僵局代表大会”(contested convention)。

When Mr Trump burst on to the scene almost a year ago, conventional wisdom dismissed his early poll numbers as a passing fad. It went on far longer than anyone expected. A majority of Republicans continue to oppose Mr Trump’s nomination. It is not too late for others to follow suit.

特朗普在近一年前登上舞台时，传统智慧曾对他早期的民调数字不以为意，称其为昙花一现。这朵“昙花”的耐久性远远超出任何人的预期。多数共和党人继续反对特朗普获得提名。其他人现在效仿还不算太迟。